You don’t have to be a diehard college basketball fan to comprehend the key to Virginia leaving Saturday undefeated. It‘s obvious to even the casual observer that, to beat the Mountaineers, we’re going to need to control the tempo of the game, limit our turnovers, and be mature on offense. When I say mature, I don’t mean that our guys need to suddenly stop laughing at dick jokes; I mean that while we can (and should!) enjoy easy baskets when the chances present themselves, we can’t try to force transition chances when they aren’t there, straying from our basic philosophy and fueling WVU’s quest for a track meet.
Last year’s game followed this script for a half. We struggled through an ugly first half in New York, trailing by as much as 12 and struggling to get good looks and control the ball before cutting our deficit to six by the break. In the second, London woke up, scoring 13 points and fueling a dissection of WVU’s defense in the half court. We turned it over all game — 19 of ’em, a 29.2% rate — but when we made it to half court, we moved the ball well and got great enough shots (particularly for Anthony Gill, who scored 19) that the turnovers didn’t matter — we were a hyperefficient shooting machine that occasionally gave it away.
WVU has continued down the same road season. They’re 21st in the country in adjusted tempo (74.5 possessions per game), forcing opponents to turn it over on more than a third of their possessions (35%, first nationally) and turning those turnovers into good looks: 26.5% of their shot attempts come in transition, and they’ve got a 67.4% EFG% on those shots. When you slow them down — say, make them take 11–30 seconds to shoot — their EFG% drops close to 50. For comparison’s sake, we’re dead last in tempo (60.7 poss per game), turn the ball over on 14.5% of our possessions, and have allowed just 17.2% of shot attempts (and a 37% EFG number) on transition chances. The team that better bends the other to their game plan is going to win on Saturday.
WVU’s press can be mighty. Rush the Court took a look last season at how Bob Huggins’s press turns into a labyrinthine series of double teams until you either cough the ball up or reach your own three point line. It’s harsh. There are three things that give me some comfort about our chances in the face of it:
1.) London Perrantes has been without his appendix for almost a year. Last year, WVU marked LP’s return following his appendectomy, and he was clearly off of his game and out of rhythm in the first half. This year, he’s healthy and is riding high after his big second half in the Ohio State comeback. London’s usage is up (21.7% of our possessions), his turnover rate (16.2%) is down, and there’s no one I’d rather have spearheading a go at a press.
2.) London is joined in our starting lineup by not one but two wingmen with point guard skills in Devon Hall and Darius Thompson. Devon has experience running things against pressure (think VCU two years ago), and Darius, who had four turnovers and struggled mightily against the stream of doubles last year, has cut his turnover rate drastically while being more confident off the bounce. Both of these guys will give London outlets and keep him from being the sole focus of WVU’s doubles off of the inbounds.
3.) Bigs can be a significant weapon against full court pressure, and both Isaiah Wilkins and Marial (if we go small) are trustworthy handlers and passers at that spot. I’m less confident in Jarred Reuter being the outlet and terrified of Jack Salt or Mamadi making decisions on the break, but I think we’ve got the personnel to work around that possibility.
I don’t want to merely focus on beating the press and ignore everything else, but we’re winning this game without a lot of stress in a halfcourt game with 63 possessions. WVU can generate shots — Nathan Adrian and Teyvon Myers are slashers and Esa Ahmad can score inside and out — but their bread and butter is layups, dunks, and threes (which are a distant third — threes are just 30.6% of their points) on secondary breaks (they’re hitting 39.4% for the season).
Virginia
G: London Perrantes — 6'2'’ sr #32
I’m not sure that I would have guessed that London would be scoring 8 points per game and shooting 27.8% on threes through four games, but he’s doing exactly what he needs to.
G: Devon Hall — 6'5'’ jr #0
Devon has eight assists to three turnovers over our last three games and hit a three against Grambling State. Maybe he’s starting to preheat.
G: Darius Thompson — 6'4'’ jr #51
Darius is being much more aggressive with the ball this season: he’s using more possessions (23% to 14.2%) and ending more in shots (22.2% to 12.6%) or assists (18.7% to 14.6%).
F: Isaiah Wilkins — 6'7'’ jr #21
Much like with London, I’m waiting to judge Isaiah’s work this season on what it looks like once we start playing against better competition. So far, he’s done what he needs to.
F: Jack Salt — 6'11'’ so #33
Jack is still being called for less than half (3.5 to 7.2) as many fouls per 40 minutes as he was last year.
G: Kyle Guy — 6'3'’ fr #5
My problem with Guy is that I keep wanting him to shoot more. Every time he ends a game with more shot attempts, I want him to shoot more next time. Eventually, I’m going to want him to take all of the shots.
F: Marial Shayok — 6'6'’ jr #4
Marial has played almost two full games’ worth of minutes (72) without a turnover.
F: Jarred Reuter — 6'7'’ so #31
Mamadi is blocking almost a quarter of opposing shot attempts when he’s on the floor. He has eight blocks in 48 minutes. Is he more than just blocked shots? Absolutely. He’s playing very good positional defense as the hedge man and nailed a 17-footer against Grambling State. The blocks are just a beautiful calling card.
WVU
G: Jevon Carter — 6'2'’ jr #2
Nine points and four assists per game, but three steals at a whopping 5.9% of opposing possessions, which is seventh nationally. He’s a terror in the backcourt.
G: Tarik Phillip — 6'3'’ sr #12
Is scoring 8.5 points per game and shooting 38.5% from deep, and adds in a 3.1% steal rate as Carter’s partner in crime.
F: Esa Ahmad — 6'8'’ so #23
Ahmad is a big, bouncy wing with range (3–9 on threes) who keys the press as part of the initial double team. He’s second on the Mountaineers in scoring (13.2 ppg) and third in rebounding (4.5, including 8.6% of available offensive boards).
F: Nathan Adrien — 6'9'’ sr #11
13.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg and more assists (a 23.5% assist rate) and threes (6–19) than you’d expect from a man his size.
F: Elijah Macon — 6'9'’ jr #45
Grabs almost 10% of offensive boards and blocks just over 6% of opposing shot attempts. Doesn’t contribute much on offense, but isn’t called to.
G: Teyvon Myers — 6'2’’ sr #0
His 122.2 offensive rating has been bolstered by transition (18–36 on twos) and selective but accurate three point shooting (5–8, 62.5%).
F: Brandon Watkins — 6'9'’ sr #20
The team’s second leading per game rebounder despite playing 30% of their minutes, he’s grabbing 13.5% of offensive boards and almost 20 (19.5%) on D.
F: Daxter Miles — 6'3'’ jr #4
4–9 on threes and a 5.8% steal rate in his limited minutes.
Verdict:
I’ve grown confident in our team’s ability to remain an oasis of chaos against teams that press and push the tempo almost to the point of cockiness. That is how much I believe, particularly in the talents of Tony Bennett and London Perrantes. WVU won’t be an easy out — they’re deep, athletic, and experienced (seven of that top eight are juniors or seniors, and a first half like OSU won’t get us there — but I think we get off to a better start — at least energy-wise, even if there are some miscues — and win by 10.
