Lest we not forget that we have played this team before, way back on November 25, 2015. Obviously, these are two different teams now. Yale most definitely is a contender after upsetting the Baylor Bears on Thursday. This game will likely be very similar to the UNCW game with one glaring exception, rebounding in that Yale ranks 5th nationally in OR%.
It took 54 years for the biggest win in the history of the Yale program. The 12-seed was thought by some to be the safest upset pick of the No. 12 vs. No. 5 games, and the Bulldogs delivered, defeating the Baylor Bears 79-75.
From the start, this was a poor matchup for Scott Drew’s Bears. Not only is Yale impossible to keep off the offensive glass, the team is equally as skilled keeping teams from accumulating additional possessions. The Bulldogs held Baylor, a team that grabbed 40 percent of its misses in 2016, to a scant 28 percent offensive rebounding clip Thursday.
Even though the Bears scored 1.11 points per possession, the squad flailed on the other side of the ball, and Yale, who dropped 1.19 PPP, now moves on for a rematch with No. 4 Duke, a team that defeated the Bulldogs earlier this season, 80-61.
However, that was a much different Duke team. In addition, things could be very different in Round 2. Amile Jefferson, who is now out for the year, logged 25 minutes, and grabbed 12 boards in that first contest. His absence will make Saturday’s dynamic more interesting.
Even though Duke’s small-ball lineup with Matt Jones, Derryk Thornton, Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen scores at an obscene efficiency rate, Yale relies on Nick Victor and Justin Sears to help on ball-penetration near the rim (12.6 percent block rate) and is adept at preventing additional possessions.
Yale is terrible at forcing turnovers, coach James Jones would rather the team stick with their man and funnel opponents to the waiting shot blockers, but the Bulldogs could be able to contain the Blue Devils. One issue, though, might be the Bulldogs’ lack of depth. Brandon Sherrod and Sears both had foul issues against Baylor, and while Jones was able to lean on his reserves, that might be more of a problem against an offensively resplendent Duke.
Because of their size advantages in Thursday’s game against UNC-Wilmington, Duke (Brandon Ingram, in particular) was able to grab a board and immediately morph into their transition offense, sparking quick points and trips to the foul line. That shouldn’t happen versus Yale. First, those defensive boards shouldn’t be available. And second, the Bulldogs are the rare team that crashes the offensive glass but is also stingy with its transition defense, allowing opponents to notch an effective field goal percentage of 45.7 percent, the 20th best mark in Division I.
During the first meeting with Duke in late November, Yale’s offense struggled, making just four of its threes. But back when Duke was a much better defensive squad with Jefferson. Per HoopLens, Duke’s small lineup with Jefferson at center held opponents to 0.90 PPP. Without him, it jumps to 1.00. Yale should be able to not only take advantage of the offensive glass, a significant trouble spot for the Blue Devils, who are sieve-like at securing boards. And while Duke does press up on the perimeter, there could be significant opportunities for backdoor cuts from the Ivy Leaguers.
This could be particularly advantageous for Makai Mason, who scored 31 points in the win over Baylor, and is adept creating off the bounce. According to Hoop-Math.com, just 17.0 percent of his shots within the arc in are assisted. As a whole, the team’s non-transition effective field goal percentage is just outside of the nation’s top 50 (51.8 percent). And the Bulldogs are not known to hurry their offense. It takes about 18 seconds for the squad to attempt a shot. That pace could limit the superior athleticism of Duke.
Yale does struggle with teams that apply ball-pressure, but that won’t be a factor against the Blue Devils. Duke’s ball-hawking tendencies are non-existent, forcing an opponent to commit a giveaway on just 16.8 percent of its possessions during ACC play.
Keys to Watch For
Keys for Yale
- Duke has looked vulnerable, and UNC Wilmington made the Blue Devils sweat in the first round, and the Bulldogs are playing with house money at this point
- Guard Makai Mason opened eyes during Yale’s upset win over Baylor, but he isn’t a one-game wonder
- He can score from the perimeter and plays smart basketball on both ends
- The biggest key for the Bulldogs will be controlling Brandon Ingram, whose athleticism will create problems for Yale
- Getting him in early foul trouble is critical
Keys for Duke
- Marshall Plumlee had a field day during the first round vs. UNCW, but that came because he was the biggest guy on the court
- He needs to fill that same role in the second round, and when Plumlee is an active part of Duke’s attack, they are tough to stop
- Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram can fill up the box score by scoring inside and out, but Duke is at its best when it finds a third option, and Plumlee needs to be that guy vs. Yale
- The Blue Devils also need to crank up the defense to get to the Sweet 16
- Finally, If Duke can prevent the Bulldogs’ shooters from getting hot from beyond the arc, the Blue Devils should be able to take control of the game
Prediction
The Blue Devils unquestionably have the best talent, but Duke has been sloppy with the ball and aren’t the disciplined team we’ve come to know this year. That said, Yale simply doesn’t have the horses to hang with the Blue Devils, and look for Grayson Allen to have a huge game. Duke wins 73-61.
