NIL is widely considered the reason for the lack Cinderella’s in the last 2 NCAA Men’s tournaments. I have found that to be an incomplete reason for what we are seeing. @CBB_Central Kevin Sweeney does an excellent job diving into this topic in detail.
Todd Golden made an interesting point to me on the lack of upsets: Elite teams have gone from slanting towards skill + playing 5-out to going all-in on dominating at the rim. It’s a higher-floor brand of basketball and the hardest style for MMs to match: https://t.co/ysR8UvkDSQ pic.twitter.com/BgwfNoqhtM
— Kevin Sweeney (@CBB_Central) March 22, 2026
That is an interesting take above. It’s simply to get big and control the rim.
Some other points made in Sweeney’s article.
The best teams are better
Some of that is driven by the portal, but it is also a function of NIL keeping players in school longer. Look through this season’s top 10 teams, and there’s a smattering of guys who may well have turned pro without often seven-figure deals keeping them in school.
Mid-Majors lack of continuity
The potential great equalizer was the ability for mid-majors to build a level of roster continuity that the bigger brands struggled to match, then ride that experience to upset wins.
Stylistic shifts
Rim protection and offensive rebounding are now the premiums elite teams chase, not stretch big men and sharpshooting.
Frankly, it’s been a perfect storm of events that’s led to the lack of Cinderellas, but I was there in Greenville, SC, when 16 seed Siena led 1 Seed Duke 47-34 with 18 minutes left in the second half, and 61-56 with under 8 minutes in a game Duke never could quite pull away. High Point was minutes from being in the Sweet 16 in losing 94-88 to Arkansas.
It will happen, a true Cinderella team will reach the Sweet 16 again, but it’s getting tougher than ever.
