Syracuse (12-7, 2-4 Atlantic Coast) rides back-to-back conference wins into Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday night to face now No. 9 Duke (14-4, 3-2), who is coming off back-to-back losses against Clemson and Notre Dame. The Blue Devils fell to the Fighting Irish 95-91 on Saturday, while the Orange romped over Wake Forest by 28 behind 25 points from Trevor Cooney.
When they last played, then No. 4 Duke overwhelmed the Orange in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Justise Winslow’s season-high 23 points lead the way for the Blue Devils. Syracuse shot an abysmal 19-of-62 from the field and 3-of-20 from beyond the arc. Tyler Roberson led the Cuse with 16 points and nine rebounds, but his frontcourt counterpart Jahlil Okafor logged a double-double with 13 points and 14 rebounds in the lopsided win.
The Blue Devils are fourth in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranking behind Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Southern Methodist. Duke has not scored fewer than 80 points in any home game and only one game saw the Blue Devils put up fewer than 70. Duke ranks second in the conference in 3-point field-goal percentage and are led by sophomore guard Grayson Allen, the ACC’s second-leading scorer with 20.2 points per game. Duke’s most noted Achilles heel is the absence of Amile Jefferson still sidelined due to injury. He has factored in all four matchups with Syracuse over the past two seasons. His absence leaves the frontcourt duties primarily to Marshall Plumlee and freshman Brandon Ingram as it has become quite evident that Chase Jeter and Sean Obi will see few if any playing time.
Luke Kennard had a season-high 30 points against the Fighting Irish, and fellow freshman Brandon Ingram finished with 25. Duke ranks second nationally in scoring at 86.9 points per game but is giving up an average of 70.7, which would be its worst since allowing 71.3 per game in 1999-2000.
The Blue Devils haven’t lost to three consecutive unranked foes since February 1-11, 2007, part of a four-game skid that also marks the last time they dropped back-to-back home games. They lost four straight, including their first NCAA Tournament game, to end that same season, which also is the last time they lost three in a row overall.
Hiccups to start conference play are nothing new for the Blue Devils, who have lost two of their first five ACC games in each of the last four seasons. They lost back-to-back games around this time in 2014-15 before going on to win the national championship.
Syracuse could upset (depending on how you define “upset”) Duke as they are on the rise and Duke is reeling. Duke opponents score 58.1 percent of their points inside the arc and that ranks sixth in the country, according to KenPom. With Jefferson out, teams are attacking the interior and Syracuse can do the same. Tyler Roberson has been more effective finishing at the rim for the Orange and so too has Dajuan Coleman, who made all three of his field-goal attempts in the paint. If the Orange can hit a string of outside shots early as Cooney did against Wake Forest, it will open up the interior, and Syracuse can attack an already thin Blue Devils frontcourt.
Syracuse has the lowest percentage of bench minutes in the country, according to KenPom, but Duke is not much deeper. The Blue Devils bench players see only 26 percent of a game’s minutes on average, which ranks 321st in the nation. If Syracuse can wear down Duke in transition (it is unlikely because the Blue Devils have the seventh-best turnover percentage in the country), Krzyzewski may be forced to dip further, but do not count on it.
Luke Kennard may not be as prominent as Allen or Ingram, but as noted above, the freshman’s season-high 30 points against the Fighting Irish puts him well on Syracuse’s radar. He has scored in double figures in each of Duke’s five ACC games and has only had one game shooting below 50 percent from the field in conference play. Kennard can also get to the rim and draw contact, which SU may not want to incite since Kennard shoots a whopping 92.4 percent from the foul line, which ranks sixth in the country.
Given the very close similarity between the two teams and the fact that one is on the rise while the other is on the fall, I am going to rely on the oddsmakers and call this Duke’s way.
