We’re two games into the 2025 college football season, and the playoff picture is already shifting fast. The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff means more spots, more jockeying, and more opportunity. The latest odds bring clarity. They spotlight who’s rising, who’s holding steady, and who’s slipping.
Let’s dig into the numbers and find out what they mean for contenders.
Favorites Backed by the Market
Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, LSU, and Texas lead the futures market for winning the national title. On ESPN Bet as of early September, Ohio State and Penn State sit atop at +600, followed by Georgia at +650 and Texas at +750. Fox Sports' August 8 data shows OSU even stronger at +550, with Penn State and Georgia at +650.
That consensus matters. It signals betting confidence and early-season respect. These teams carry elite talent, favorable schedules, and the backing of smart money.
For anyone tracking lines across multiple sportsbooks, the FanDuel college football odds board offers another look at how these same contenders are priced, giving bettors a broader view of where the market believes the power lies.
Playoff Odds Painting a Clearer Picture
Projection models now place Texas in the lead for playoff qualification at 83.9%, and they hold a 22.2% likelihood of capturing the national title. Ohio State trails with a 70.6% shot at the playoff and 11.6% to win it.
Georgia follows closely behind, posting a 78.6% playoff projection and a 17.5% shot at the championship. In the next tier, Alabama offers 66.2% playoff odds and 10.4% for the title, while Penn State sits at 63.8% and 7.6%, respectively. Clemson and Miami slot in around 47% and 46% playoff probability, with single-digit title chances. At the bottom, Michigan hovers near 25% to make the field, with virtually zero chance for the crown.
These numbers sketch a stark hierarchy. Texas, Ohio State, and Georgia boast strong model backing, while Alabama and Penn State confirm their consistency. Clemson and Miami sit on the edge, needing continued performance. Michigan now lives precariously on the bubble. Every game matters more than ever.
Week 2 Window Shifts
Week 2 delivered real shake-ups that shifted the playoff picture. Iowa State took down rival Iowa, Oklahoma toppled Michigan, and South Florida stunned Florida. Despite those results, projections still place Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, LSU, and Texas among the safest bets to make the field.
Clemson and Notre Dame remain in solid territory, while Miami’s rise into playoff contention signals how one key win can swing perception. Oklahoma, Florida State, Iowa State, and even South Florida have all improved their standing in the models.
Early upsets remind us that Group of Five teams can enter the conversation faster than expected. Momentum is real, and the first weeks prove how quickly it can reshape the board.
Group of Five Threats
Boise State entered 2025 as the projected Group of Five frontrunner, backed by preseason projections that highlighted their returning production, recruiting momentum, and track record. JMU was also on the radar as an underdog with size, experience, and offensive spark. Both programs looked like the strongest mid-major bets before the season began.
Then came USF’s breakout. Their upset win over Florida and another victory against a ranked opponent vaulted them straight into the playoff conversation. Those results boost perception and pushed USF to No. 1 in the HERO Sports Group of Five media poll and into the AP Top 25 at No. 18 for the first time since 2018.
That surge also reshuffled the G5 hierarchy. Tulane, Memphis, and JMU now trail USF in the second tier, while Boise State’s early advantage has faded. The lesson is clear. These mid-majors can’t be ignored. A strong resume, combined with one headline upset, is often enough to put a Group of Five team into serious playoff contention.
Long Shots Worth Respect
Goal is value. Alabama remains intriguing due to its coaching continuity and the foundation it retains from past dynasties. Texas A&M returns 15 starters with stakes riding on the rapid growth and leadership of a rising quarterback. Kansas State offers a high ceiling thanks to a veteran coaching staff, a high-powered offense, and one of the strongest returning offensive cores in the conference.
Saban’s successor has steadied Alabama, and analysts note the team’s overall strength, especially in SP+ defensive metrics, suggests they may be undervalued right now. At A&M, staff and veteran linemen exude confidence and ambition, driven by a culture shift under a newer coach, which places them firmly in the dark horse conversation.
Kansas State’s offense, led by Avery Johnson and supported by one of the best returning units at QB, RB, and O-Line in the league, places them squarely on any sleeper radar
For readers tracking these programs week to week, FanDuel’s Latest NCAAF Matchups provide live scores, updated lines, and in-depth analysis that show how these teams are holding up against expectations.
The Edges That Will Matter Most
Talent gets you in the conversation, but it's the edges that decide the titles. Depth up front, controlling turnovers, and making smart coaching calls against strong defenses often slip past what the numbers measure. When you’re weighing who’s real, look past the futures board and into those small details. They don’t trend on Saturday night, but they shape the playoff more than any headline upset.
