First, I’ll answer two lingering questions that I’ve seen floating around on Twitter:
- Is this the peak of what a Tony Bennett team is capable of?
Was the loss to Wisconsin last year the peak of what a John Calipari Kentucky team is capable of? Connecticut has won two titles in the last five years playing at a tempo in the bottom third nationally. Butler made two championship games the same way. March basketball depends a lot on talent and, well, happenstance: you have to be seeded beneficially and able to reel off a six game winning streak on command. Only one team does it each year. Judging the overall condition of a program by one March is silly and shortsighted.
It’s also been said that the Pack Line is more effective in the early portion of the season before teams have time to prepare for it. I disagree. There’s more film available and more film of teams having success against it later in the season, but opponents still have to put together a game plan and execute it in a short turnaround, just like any other scheme. Every team doesn’t have the requisite parts to beat the Pack Line, and less teams will be as the talent level increases (and the offense consistently hums long on a level that corresponds to the defense, like they were before Justin got hurt).
I think that there’s a lot of impatience in the base. This is Virginia’s second year among the elite. Things like this take a little time to coalesce when you’re not building them on McDonald’s All-Americans and NBA prospects, especially when you think about where it began. As prolonged success opens the door to a new level of recruit, we’ll see more freedom on offense, less dry periods, and more wins in games like the ones we lost this season. Bennett has said he’s open to transition opportunities and good shots early in the clock — they just have to be there.
- What went wrong this season?
Two things: the injury to Justin Anderson and Joe Harris’s graduation. I was very concerned with how we’d replace Joe’s ability to both make shots and draw attention from opposing defenses before the season began. A floor spacer is crucial in an offense that relies so much on post production, and Joe’s perpetual motion and constant threat to shoot kept opposing defenses from ever getting comfortable. Justin was doing a tremendous job filling that role in his own way before getting hurt, but once he did, our spacing collapsed like a popped balloon. Evan Nolte took a month to thaw, Malcolm was streaky from the perimeter all year (and fills a different role in CTB’s scheme anyway — he handles too much to be the spot-up guy), and London Perrantes often appeared reluctant to pull the trigger and took many of his attempts under shot clock duress. Once Anderson got hurt, his replacements in the baseline-to-corner and-and-wing routes in our offense — probably the most important piece of it — didn’t draw near the attention, which allowed defenders to sag on to AG, Darion, and Tobey.
Now that we’re done with 2015, I’d like to remind you that this was always supposed to be the transition year. Next year’s team is primed to be great, if it can answer two big questions:
- Who will be the next do-everything defender in the line started by Akil Mitchell and continued by Darion Atkins? Ladies and gentlemen, Isaiah Wilkins. The kid rebounded at a high rate this year in his limited minutes (22.5% of defensive rebounds) and could make the same wing-to-big transition that Akil made with a summer of guidance from Mike Curtis. I wouldn’t be shocked if Isaiah ends up in a time share with Mike Tobey next season, depending on matchups.
- Who will make shots? There are a lot of candidates. A healthy Justin Anderson (with another offseason of reps to dial in his new, improved form) is obviously the clubhouse leader, but his return isn’t guaranteed. Malcolm had stretches of efficacy this year, but hit 37% the year before and has shown that he *can* make them. London also suffered a down year, but also showed signs of being more aggressive: a combination of last year’s successes (43.7% from three) and this season’s attitude (ending 13.8% of possessions with a shot) would be lethal. Finally, there’s Marial (who made 38% of his 50 threes this season) and there will still be Evan Nolte, who made 34.1% of his threes after Justin’s injury (including one great 10-19 stretch) after hitting just seven of 35 before it. It’s best for CTB’s offense as it stands if the shooter isn’t London or Malcolm, as those guys have jobs other than drawing the defense out to the wings and corner.
If they get positive answers to those questions, things could get real for opponents.
G: London Perrantes G: London Perrantes
G: Malcolm Brogdon G: Darius Thompson
F: Justin Anderson F: Malcolm Brogdon
F: Isaiah Wilkins F: Isaiah Wilkins
F: Anthony Gill F: Anthony Gill
6: Mike Tobey 6: Mike Tobey
7: Darius Thompson 7: Marial Shayok
8: Marial Shayok 8: Evan Nolte
9: Evan Nolte 9: Devon Hall
10: Devon Hall 10: B.J. Stith
11. B.J. Stith 11: Jarred Reuter
12. Jarred Reuter 12: Jack Salt
13: Jack Salt
The lineup on the left assumes Justin returns, the one on the right assumes he doesn’t. Darius Thompson — a guy who will become by far the quickest player on the roster once he puts on a uniform — will be a huge add for this group as a guy who can get into the lane at will, create shots for himself and his teammates, and give Malcolm a break from defending the quicker guards that London can’t keep up with. Tobey’s role is also a question: he could have a fourth year Darion-style renaissance, or he could merely give us another year of typical Tobey (which is not a bad thing, mind you).
There are other questions, but they’re mostly among the bench guys. Where do we slot Nolte? Which of Reuter and Salt will be more prepared to give us minutes as the fourth big (or will the answer be neither, with Evan playing another year as a stretch four)? Will Devon Hall stay the course with his role further marginalized by the arrival of Darius Thompson? Will B.J. Stith make a move to pass someone and climb into the rotation? I was very encouraged by the performance of the entire class of first years this season, so it’ll be fun to see what they give us next year.
Basketball is fun, guys. Stay tuned.
