Major ramifications for future non-con schedules if the ACC makes the move
Talks of the ACC joining the Big Ten, Pac 12, and Big 12 in having a 9-game football schedule have been heating up in the past month. Certainly the fulcrum of these talks is a potential new TV deal between ESPN and the ACC, furthering the nagging trope that all conference movement is television-driven. But the picture fans see revolves around the content of a schedule, which heavily dictates the level of hype going into the season as well as the feasibility of a relevant, championship-contending postseason.
Louisville fans know the weight of scheduling all too well. We’ve felt the angst of having a schedule that bars the team from title contention before the first polls are released. We remember years where season-defining conference games against East Carolina and Southern Miss meant Liberty or GMAC Bowl. We remember years where Kentucky was the unheralded crown of the nonconference slate. We remember when that Miami game in 2004 meant everything to the perception of Louisville football. These are facts that cause many Cardinal fans, myself included, to still feel the relief high when that weight was finally lifted in 2014.
A 9-game conference schedule would mean more scheduling changes, some welcomed by fans, while others skeptically approach. At first look, the 9-game schedule fixes the current quirks of the ACC schedule. It’s certainly weird to consider that Louisville won’t meet Virginia Tech as an ACC opponent until the next decade. With the Coastal primed to rise with strong-across-the-board coaching hires, there could be SOS benefits to playing Miami, UNC, and Georgia Tech more than once every seven years.
Yet this schedule would inevitably subtract one non-conference game leaving UofL football with 3 non-ACC tilts per year. The major question is, in the event of a 9-game schedule, how Louisville’s non-conference scheduling philosophy will adjust as a result. Currently Louisville’s non-con docket for the next two years is set, with an open date in 2018 and two in 2019 (note that the first game listed under each year is confirmed to be the season opener)
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2016
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2017
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2018
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2019
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Charlotte
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Purdue (Indy)
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Alabama (Orlando)
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Notre Dame
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@ Marshall
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Kent State
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Indiana St.
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@ UK
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@ Houston
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Murray State
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UK
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open
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UK
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@ UK
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open
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open
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Examining the scheduling trends, there are three particular options at play.
Nix the FCS Games
In a perfect world where the hype from high competition is the rule, the FCS game would be axed. This would not only eliminate the perceptually weakest opponent on the schedule, but would prevent UofL from paying the hefty payouts typically promised to lesser opponents. If this comes to pass the Murrays and Indiana States of the world could be wiped away. Louisville would be left with a marquee Power 5 opponent, a Group of 5 opponent, and UK. In this case it would be important to ensure the G5 opponent would be the gimme win of the schedule. This means probably no more roadtrips to the likes of Marshall and Houston in the future, but it means Louisville’s strength of schedule is an absolute top priority going forward.
Move Away from Marquee Season-Openers
The elephant in the room here (pun intended circa 2018) are the neutral-site, marquee non-con games set to open the upcoming seasons. It would be an understatement to say that Louisville fans have coveted these proving-ground games for so long. Certainly Tom Jurich, Bobby Petrino, and Cardinal fans will want to hold on to the 2018 Alabama game. No one wants to end up on the outside of the CFP due to a weak non-con (like 2014 Baylor), and certainly the powers that be at UofL are aware of this. Still, with 9 conference games including annual matchups with Florida St. and Clemson, avoiding these early-season marquee games in the future would prevent the team from stumbling out the gate (like last season). I doubt it will come down to this absolute, black-and-white, game-or-no-game scenario, but seeing that these marquee season-openers are a recent trend, they may lessen in regularity due to a 9-game ACC schedule.
Put the Governor’s Cup on Hold
That said, the true doomsday scenario to many fans is losing Kentucky on the schedule and this possibility isn’t as incredulous as fans may think. The SEC has discussed the jump to a 9-game schedule, and response to this, Kentucky has considered dropping the Battle for the Governor’s Cup. Obviously dropping this game is a greater boon to them. Sympathetically, UK’s record in the modern series and their historic SEC woes make it an enticing choice. For all P5 college football programs 6-6 must be a remote possibility. Cutting out the unnecessary hard games is the shortest path from A to B. Regardless, one can assume that the vast majority of fans on both sides still want this game to happen in the typical superiority-complex, bizarro-symbiotic fashion of the UofL/UK rivalry. It will probably be retained if the change is on UofL’s end.
The Inevitable
Lost in all of this, however, is what would need to happen if the 9-game schedule becomes a reality. The mot significant issue is that the number of ACC home games would oscillate between 4 and 5 from year-to-year. It would be imperative, as The Daily Press’ David Teel asserts, that teams with season-ending rivalry games (like Louisville) play their road rivalry games on years with 5 conference home games.
Obviously, considering the profitability of UofL athletics as a whole, Tom Jurich and the future administration of the university would want to keep the amount of home games at a healthy, balanced seven. If the 9-game schedule happens, what we’ve come to expect from Louisville football schedules since 2014 will change somewhat. The resulting decisions will reflect heavily upon UofL football’s national identity. With SOS the crux of a good CFP resume, emphasizing a strong non-conference schedule would indicate championship aspirations. Or, considering last season’s initial struggles, it may be better to take a more gradual approach.
