It's clear that Duke is the consensus #1 team in college basketball this season. When you add a recruiting class of Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson and others to a team that returns the likes of Grayson Allen, Amile Jefferson, and Luke Kennard that seems like a no brainer.
There are a few wrinkles to iron out though as Harry Giles is still trying to get to 100% after yet another knee injury cost him most of his senior year in high school. Jayson Tatum shined in the Countdown to Craziness scrimmage, but just a few days later Tatum went down with a foot injury that will cost him a couple weeks as well. Both should be back early in the season, but the effect of these injuries may hurt Duke more as the season progresses.
EXPECTATIONS
I recently sat in a college baseball coach's office with my son talking about his player evaluation methods. He pulled up a spreadsheet where a number of different categories were listed and there were scores from 1-10 for each. There was a self-evaluation score for the player, a score by the coaching staff, and a score by the rest of the players on the team.
The coach, who has amassed more than 1,000 wins in his college baseball coaching career, explained that the thing he looks for most often is when the players expectations don't match that of the coaches or his teammates. It's this case that causes the most problems, and he will often meet with that player because in his experience that player will cause more problems in the future.
At Duke, with the injuries of Giles and Tatum, players are taking on different roles. Neither Giles or Tatum played in Duke's first exhibition game against Virginia State. In that game Luke Kennard led the way scoring 30 points while Frank Jackson added 17 off the bench. Kennard also led the Blue Devils in minutes with 36 and field goal attempts with 17. It's unlikely Kennard will see that kind of playing time or shot attempts though once Duke gets healthy though. Same goes for Frank Jackson who was the only other Blue Devil with double-figure shots and greater than 30 minutes played. Marques got the start down low and tallied a double-double dominating a smaller Virginia State squad.
Are expectations being set that won't be lived up to later in the season?
REALITY
Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum were two of the top 5 players in the class of 2016. Giles is an elite athlete with a hunger and knack around the rim that you can't teach and the ability to play away from the rim just as effectively. Jayson Tatum is equally promising with an NBA level scoring ability and 3 point range that makes him practically unguardable at the college level.
So, how will roles change once Duke has their full roster available? Duke senior Matt Jones played just 3 minutes in the exhibition against Virginia State due to a minor injury, but Jones averaged greater than 30 minutes per game last season. Will Kennard be content with 20-25 mpg and coming off the bench? Marques Bolden posted 13 points and 11 rebounds and looked like a dominant force in the exhibition, but is he ready to come off the bench when Giles and Tatum return?
You get the point, Duke's roster is loaded, and not everyone will get their piece of the "minutes per game" pie. As much as every players wants to take the high road when it comes to the team, a player's ego can be a dangerous thing.
THE GOOD NEWS
Back in the baseball coach's office, we sit discussing a player who has evaluated themselves higher than his teammates and coaching staff did. The coach makes the statement that rarely, if ever, is the player right in this situation. Too often these kids are given everything in life and weren't that good anyway. Most likely, they'll either give up or transfer somewhere else he says.
Instead, the kid you want is the one that doesn't know how good he is. He mentioned a kid that was going to be the highlight of the school's pro day later that evening and how he showed up, worked hard, and now has developed into a prospect throwing 90+ on the mound. It's all about the size of the kid's heart he says.
The coach is no doubt right, but its about the guy that sits in that office as well. With over 1,000 wins on his resume, this coach understands how player expectations can fracture a team.
At Duke, there's clearly no better leader than Mike Krzyzewski. He spent the summer dealing with bigger egos in the Olympics. Likely there isn't a coach in college basketball more equipped for this situation. Even with the best leader though, a player with the wrong motivations can hurt a team from within.
It remains to be seen how the Duke players respond to a season of adjusting roles. It may just be the one thing that could hold this Duke team from another national championship.
