All things are far from equal, but how have Dino Babers’s predecessors improved on the foundation laid in year one?
Syracuse Orange head football coach Dino Babers enters year two of his tenure this fall. And with that, the expectations -- fairly or unfairly -- begin to rise a bit. Along with the natural tendency to just assume improvement with more time in a system, Babers has seemingly mastered the year two leap. A quick glance at how his two previous teams have improved from year one to year two:
Eastern Illinois
2012: 7-5 (6-1), lost in first round of FCS Playoffs
2013: 12-2 (8-0), lost in FCS quarterfinals
Bowling Green
2014: 8-6 (5-3), won MAC East division title
2015: 10-3 (7-1), won MAC championship
He’s sold us on “year two, game four” for some time -- it’s the moment when this offensive system really starts going. Despite a 4-8 record in year one, Babers has us believing at a pretty high level, even with a very tough schedule ahead.
His own history seems to be on his side, but is Syracuse’s? A look back at how previous Orange head coaches have fared in year two (a year commonly seen as the one where teams start to break in the direction they’ll head under a given head coach).
Scott Shafer, year two: 3-9
Shafer inherited a team that went 8-5 in 2012, but graduated a lot of talent. He went 7-6 in year one, and then we got all lathered up for year two. Injuries struck early and the team spiraled into a 3-9 campaign. Hitting rock bottom to such a degree was the beginning of the end for everyone involved, unfortunately.
Doug Marrone, year two: 8-5 (won Pinstripe Bowl)
For once, Syracuse had the good sense to just schedule terrible games and try to gain some momentum. The Orange had two FCS wins in 2010, but it didn’t much matter when they went 7-5 in the regular season. Marrone had already gained some goodwill by presenting a much better product in 2009. So getting eight wins in his second season (regardless of opponents) was all fans needed to believe.
Paul Pasqualoni, year two: 10-2 (won Fiesta Bowl)
Coach P set the high-water mark for year two at Syracuse, going out and winning the Fiesta Bowl and finishing in the top 25. It also helps that SU was 10-2 the year before. So that season, while excellent, was not much of a spike, but rather maintaining the success he saw in year one. The Orangemen wouldn’t win 10 games under P again until 2001.
Dick MacPherson, year two: 2-9
This is where the year two rule gets proven vehemently wrong. MacPherson slow-built a Northeast power in the early 1980s, finally getting to a bowl game in 1985. But this was the season that could kill off momentum in the current era. Back then, he rebounded with four straight .500ish campaigns and still stuck around to eventually go 11-0-1 in 1987.
Frank Maloney, year two: 6-5
Maloney’s year two was pretty indicative of what Syracuse was during his tenure: a .500 program that would occasionally fall under that mark. Administrators finally had enough of the zigzagging after seven years and just one bowl bid.
Ben Schwartzwalder, year two: 5-5
This was actually improvement for Schwartwalder’s program, as it was the most wins they’d collected in one season since 1942 (eight years earlier). Syracuse would eventually rise to heights unseen before or since -- including the 1959 national title. The trajectory was set here, though not without minor setbacks throughout his tenure as well.
There are plenty more coaches before Schwartzwalder to reach a second year on the Syracuse sidelines, but the results sort of stop meaning as much once you get into the 1940s. Between World War II, the advent of the passing game, uncertainty around the game’s safety and other factors that make the sport incomparable, it’s not necessarily apples to apples.
Does this give you more faith in Dino? Less? Curious if anyone reads further into the year two trends established above.
