Eight days shy of two years since we were pasted by Tennessee in what was ultimately the turning point in a special season, we’re hosting a mini-reunion from that game at JPJ. Five of our guys return from that game, and they’ll be joined by Darius Thompson and second-year Cal coach Cuonzo Martin, who was in his last year on the sidelines at Tennessee for that meeting with the Vols.
Martin was never really accepted at Tennessee despite two NIT appearances and a run to the Sweet 16, and left for Cal when Volunteer fans started a petition to bring Bruce Pearl back in his stead. He’s not a bad coach, he’s just not very exciting (especially when you’re used to this), and he’s done fine at Cal so far. This year’s Golden Bears are 9-2, ranked 52nd by Pomeroy, and feature a mix of experience (senior guard Tyrone Wallace leads them in scoring and juniors Jordan Matthews and Jabari Bird have made 39 of their 73 made threes) and potential (their second and third leading scorers — 6’7” forward Jaylen Brown and 6’11” center Ivan Rabb — are five star, top-10 freshmen from their 16th-ranked rookie class).
Depth and experience will be big advantages for us. Cal goes eight deep, but none of their reserves are averaging more than 3.9 points per game or can be counted on to consistently do more than buy rest for their starters, while I trust most of our bench guys to play in crunch time, take big shots, and sometimes even become starters or play more than the starters when match ups deem it so. Foul trouble, injury, or just the fatigue from entering the crucible that is the Pack Line after a cross country trip will mean Cal has to play guys who are a decided step down.
On the experience front, Rabb and Brown have combined to average 4.1 turnovers per game, and will probably be vulnerable to our post traps when they’re on offense, and to the various stretchy machinations of Anthony Gill on the left block when they’re on defense. Teams have been able to make threes — lots of them, at 37.6% — against Cal, as they’ve struggled with finishing possessions against teams that move the ball. If we can repeat or even approach Saturday’s effort from the arc, we’ll be off to a good start.
The Bears’ edge, if there is one, will be found inside. Rabb is averaging 8.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game, keying a Cal interior patrol that blocks one of every eight shots (12.5% for the year) they face and has controlled both backboards (36.1% of their own misses and 74.5% of opponents’). Rabb is grabbing 14% of Cal’s misses when he’s in the game and has made 81% (81%!) of his shots around the rim this season, so keeping him off the glass is a big deal. Tyrone Wallace and Jaylen Brown both excel at getting to the rim (they’re both taking more than 40% of their shots there this season) and thusly at getting to the line (they both take more than one free throw for every two shot attempts). Cal will want to muddy this game up, take a bunch of free throws, and win ugly.
Verdict:
Martin’s teams have never been known for being dynamic on offense. He’s a defense-first grit and grind type who emphasizes character and effort over Xs and Os. Cal runs a lot of basic motion sets and then relies on their stars (Wallace and Brown) to bail them out late in the clock (or Rabb to clean things up when the bailouts go bad). Cal reminds me of some of Leonard Hamilton’s FSU teams — talented, lanky, and athletic, but not all that creative — and that kind of team has never done very well against us. I think we win by low double digits and go into Christmas fat and happy.
