Everyone’s phone is ringing. Contenders are hunting aces and right-handed bats. Sellers are finally showing their cards. And one left-hander is about to decide whether this deadline is historic or just busy.
Tarik Skubal is the prize. Everything else is the scramble underneath him. Below is our MyGameSim big board: who’s most likely to move, where they’re most likely to land, and where they’d actually move the needle.
We already simulated Skubal on six contenders here: What If Tarik Skubal Is Traded? We Simulated His Potential Landing Spots.
For the fuller industry picture, bookmark MLB.com’s deadline guide and Jeff Passan’s ESPN team-by-team preview.
The Setup
- The headline: Skubal is expected to be traded. Passan says Detroit will deal him; Nightengale has put the odds around 80%.
- The twist: so many teams are still in the wild-card mix that true sellers are scarce.
- Clear-ish sellers: Giants, Mets, Rockies, Reds, Marlins; AL side points to Athletics, Angels, Royals, and possibly Blue Jays.
- What buyers want most: starting pitching first, then right-handed hitting.
The Big Board
| Player | Likely Landing Spots | Ideal Landing Spot | Trade Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal LHP, Tigers |
Dodgers, Brewers, Rays, Cubs; also Braves, Phillies, Yankees | Braves or Phillies (biggest needle) / Dodgers (October ceiling) | High |
| Luis Arraez 2B, Giants |
Rays, Yankees, other contact-starved contenders | Tampa Bay Rays: already linked, need on-base juice now | High |
| Robbie Ray LHP, Giants |
Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Phillies | New York Yankees: lefty starter depth in a winnable AL | High |
| Freddy Peralta RHP, Mets |
Rays, Brewers, Yankees, Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers: strikeout profile on a club hunting rotation help | High |
| Sandy Alcantara RHP, Marlins |
Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, other rotation-needy buyers | Philadelphia Phillies: innings and a different look behind their lefties | Medium |
| Reid Detmers LHP, Angels |
Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Braves | Boston Red Sox: lefty starter for a club that flipped into buyer mode | Medium |
| Zach Neto / Jo Adell SS / OF, Angels |
Rays, Red Sox, Yankees | Neto to Rays; Adell to Yankees: right-handed impact in a thin market | Medium |
| Michael Wacha RHP, Royals |
Cubs, Phillies, Braves, Yankees | Chicago Cubs: reliable mid-rotation help for a banged-up staff | Medium |
| Mason Miller RP, Padres |
Yankees, Brewers, any true all-in contender | Milwaukee Brewers: turns an elite pen nuclear; ask is Soto-level | Low |
Skubal Is the Deadline
Until he lands, every other rumor is a subplot. Skubal is a pending free agent, back to looking like himself after elbow surgery, and after Detroit’s recent skid, widely expected to change uniforms. Rival executives have floated the Dodgers as the favorite; Brewers, Rays, and Cubs are right behind. Braves, Phillies, and Yankees are still in the hunt.
Ideal spot depends on what you optimize for:
- Biggest needle move: In our What If sims, the Braves (+30 win pts) and Phillies (+22) gained the most when Skubal replaced an average starter.
- Best October machine: the Dodgers. Deepest farm to pay the ask, and the clearest path to both win now and re-sign him.
Full packages, win rates, and rankings: read the Skubal What If article →
Miss on Skubal? Here’s the Next Wave
The consolation prize board is still strong, just less glamorous.
- Robbie Ray: Giants rental with real starter value. Ideal fit: Yankees.
- Freddy Peralta: Mets are selling; the strikeout stuff still plays in October. Ideal fit: Brewers.
- Sandy Alcantara: Miami’s swoon put him back in play. Ideal fit: Phillies.
- Detmers / Wacha / Gausman: the “we can’t clear Detroit’s ask” starter tier for everyone else.
Why Right-Handed Bats Matter This Much
Buyers keep saying the same thing: right-handed hitting is scarce. That’s why Angels talent and Giants veterans are getting so many calls.
- Luis Arraez is San Francisco’s clearest chip. Ideal: Rays.
- Zach Neto / Jo Adell offer controllable impact. Ideal: Neto to Tampa Bay, Adell to New York.
- Luis Robert Jr., George Springer, Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames fill out the secondary bat board if sellers lean in hard.
- Ryan Jeffers is a popular catcher name, but Minnesota has talked like a buyer, so he may stay put.
Mason Miller Is the Mirage
Miller is the best reliever anyone can dream on, and he’s probably not moving. San Diego is close enough in the race that the ask is Juan Soto-level. Ideal destination if the moonshot happens: Brewers or Yankees. Realistic expectation: the Padres keep him and buy around him.
More likely to actually change uniforms: Mets leverage arms and other rental relievers from true sellers.
What to Watch When the Domino Falls
- Skubal to L.A.: Dodgers get even scarier in October. Everyone else settles for Ray/Peralta/Alcantara.
- Skubal to Atlanta or Philly: biggest standings jolt based on our sims, and the NL East goes nuclear.
- Detroit somehow holds: the deadline becomes a starter-depth auction and a RH-bat scramble. Still busy. Just less historic.
Want to stress-test a landing spot yourself? Build a What If roster and run it.
Open MLB Game Simulator → View MLB Predictions → Skubal What If Sims →
