Sunday, 9:30 AM ET in Madrid: Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons. The GameSim projection is Cincinnati 29.5, Atlanta 29.3, across 1,040 simulations. Two tenths of a point. That is not a lean, that is the model throwing up its hands and telling you to set your alarm for the early kickoff.
The projected stats are loud on both sides. The sims have Joe Burrow throwing for 365.8 yards and 2.85 touchdowns, and Michael Penix Jr. answering with 260.7 yards and 2.2 touchdowns of his own. On the ground, Atlanta's Bijan Robinson is projected for 165.7 rushing yards and 1.25 touchdowns, the biggest individual edge either side holds. Two quarterbacks airing it out, one running back the sims think could take the game over, and a spread of two tenths of a point.
My take: when 1,040 runs cannot separate two teams by more than a fifth of a point, the take is not about the score, it is about the shootout. Both defenses are supposed to give up points in bunches, and the sims have this one clearing 58 combined. If you like offense before noon, this is your game, and if you like a winner, good luck, the model just shrugged.
The Giants are favored in Philadelphia, and the sims are not joking
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles. The GameSim projection is New York 30.0, Philadelphia 20.8, across 1,040 simulations. The Giants, on the road, in a rivalry game, favored by more than nine points. Read that again.
My take: road favorites of nine-plus in a division rivalry do not happen by accident in this model. The sims are saying the talent gap right now is bigger than the address, bigger than the crowd, bigger than the history. Philly at home is supposed to be the hard part of the schedule. The sims disagree, loudly. If the Eagles win this one, it will be because the rivalry does what rivalry games do and makes the numbers look silly. If the Giants win by nine, nobody who ran the sims will be surprised.
The late window has the name brands
Sunday, 4:25 PM ET: Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots. New England 25.4, Green Bay 19.7, across 1,040 simulations. The sims have Jordan Love throwing for 278.9 yards and Drake Maye right behind him at 273.7, with Maye projected for 2.25 touchdowns. Two quarterbacks, two nearly identical afternoons, and the home team getting the nod by almost six.
My take: the Packers are the bigger name, and the sims still will not give them the game in Foxborough. That tells you plenty about where the model thinks New England is right now.
And the nightcap, Sunday, 8:20 PM ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears. Chicago 28.6, Tampa Bay 24.2, across 1,040 simulations. The Bears at home under the lights, favored by more than a field goal. Sunday night football gets a home favorite, and the sims like the hosts.
Earlier in the day: Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins, 1:00 PM ET, Detroit 33.6, Miami 20.2, the Lions projected to put up 33 points on the road, the biggest road total on the board. At 4:05 PM ET, Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers, Houston 24.5, Los Angeles 21.3, Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers, San Francisco 31.0, Las Vegas 21.9, and Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, Seattle 29.7, Arizona 27.3, the closest of the late games.
The 1:00 PM window is loaded
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts, 1:00 PM ET: Indianapolis 27.3, Dallas 21.7. New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 PM ET: New York 24.2, Kansas City 23.2, the Jets favored by a point on the road in Arrowhead, which is the kind of call that either looks genius or gets laughed at by 4:00. Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders, 1:00 PM ET: Washington 26.3, Los Angeles 21.2. Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers, 1:00 PM ET: Carolina 24.9, Denver 15.7, the widest home margin of the early window. And Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints, 1:00 PM ET: Cleveland 27.9, New Orleans 15.8, the Browns favored by twelve on the road.
My take: five early games, and the sims are handing out road favorites like candy. The Giants by nine in Philly, the Browns by twelve in New Orleans, the Jets by a point in Kansas City. If the road teams sweep the early window, the model looks like a genius. If the home crowds bite back, today is the day the sims learn some humility.
One more for the road
The NBA has seven games, and the tightest is Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls, 3:30 PM ET: Philadelphia 108.3, Chicago 107.8, across 200 simulations, a half-point game. Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons, 6:00 PM ET: Detroit 114.9, Los Angeles 112.0. Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:00 PM ET: Boston 113.1, Milwaukee 109.7. And New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers, 9:00 PM ET: New Orleans 115.6, Los Angeles 110.7.
On the ice, six games, including Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins, 1:00 PM ET: Boston 4.3, Florida 2.7, and New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:00 PM ET: New Jersey 4.1, Toronto 3.7. College hoops has 23 games, and the tightest are Arkansas at Virginia, 1:00 PM ET: Arkansas 83.8, Virginia 81.5, and Houston at California, 8:30 PM ET: California 82.2, Houston 81.4.
The report card: yesterday's card goes 14-for-20, the coin flip landed and the road favorites mostly held
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured card went 14-for-20 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article, with one game, Florida State at Boston College, a no-call after the sims projected it dead even at 28.3. The headliner landed, as Oregon beat Ohio State 41-28 after the sims had the Ducks by a tenth of a point. The Ducks did not just win, they won by 13 in Columbus.
The misses were real. Notre Dame beat Miami 31-24 after the sims had the Hurricanes by more than two touchdowns, and Oklahoma beat Florida 23-7 after the sims had the Gators by eight. In the NBA, Phoenix beat Houston 102-99 after the sims had the Rockets by nine, and San Antonio beat Portland 125-103 after the sims had the Blazers by twelve. Memphis edged VCU 89-88 after the sims had the Rams by nearly two, and New York beat Cleveland 109-97 after the sims had the Cavaliers by nearly three.
But the rest of the card held, and the close calls were the story. College football went 10-for-12, with Georgia beating Ole Miss 42-7, Louisville beating Georgia Tech 44-17, and Tennessee beating Kentucky 34-6, all three doing exactly what the sims said, and Alabama winning at LSU 31-13, Utah beating BYU 28-20, Texas winning at Missouri 34-20, UCLA winning at Minnesota 34-20, Iowa winning at Northwestern 24-10, and South Carolina beating Texas A&M 17-9 all landing as projected too. On the ice, Tampa Bay won in Minnesota 4-3 and Colorado blanked Detroit 4-0, for a 2-for-2 night, with the Avs landing right on four goals against a projected 4.7. Oklahoma City handled Washington 114-75 for the NBA's one winner, and Georgetown beat Maryland 86-74 for the CBB split. And the NBA still gave us a gem even in a miss, as the Knicks landed right on 109 against a projected 109.1, and the Spurs-Blazers total landing at 228 against a projected 225.7. Fourteen winners right, six wrong, one no-call, a solid Saturday with the big calls on both sides of the ledger.
GameSim line: Cincinnati by two tenths in Atlanta, the Giants by nine in Philadelphia, and the Patriots by almost six over Green Bay.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 14-for-20 on winners, with the Oregon coin flip landing, the Knicks landing right on 109, and the Spurs-Blazers total called nearly to the point. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
