Monday, 8:15 PM ET: Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings. The GameSim projection is Minnesota 26.8, Buffalo 22.8, across 1,180 simulations. Monday Night Football gets a real game, two teams that can score in bunches, and a home favorite the sims are comfortable with.
The projected stats tell the story of two quarterbacks trading blows. The sims have Josh Allen throwing for 232.3 yards and 1.3 touchdowns, and Carson Wentz answering with 215.5 yards and 1.1 touchdowns of his own. The difference, according to the model, is on the ground: James Cook is projected for 122.1 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns, the biggest individual edge either side holds, while Aaron Jones answers with 92.0 yards for Minnesota. Cook running wild in a dome on a Monday night is the kind of thing that decides games like this.
My take: four points at home is a real number, not a shrug, and the sims are saying the Vikings win this one in the trenches and on the ground game. Buffalo has the bigger name at quarterback, and the model still will not give the Bills the game in Minneapolis. If Allen goes off for one of those nights where he is the best player on the field by a mile, the sims look silly. If Cook grinds out 120-plus and the Vikings control the clock, nobody who ran the sims will be surprised.
The NBA runs eight deep, and the nightcap is a coin flip
The Association fills the evening with eight games, and the one to circle is the late one. At 9:00 PM ET, San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns. The GameSim projection is Phoenix 115.4, San Antonio 115.3, across 280 simulations. One tenth of a point. That is the model telling you it has no idea, and telling you to watch anyway. The projected stats are loud on both sides: Victor Wembanyama at 28.2 points, 13.1 rebounds and 2.2 blocks, Devin Booker answering with 22.9 points, and Dylan Harper chipping in 17.3 for the Spurs.
At 7:00 PM ET, Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks. The GameSim projection is Los Angeles 118.5, Atlanta 116.0, across 280 simulations. Austin Reaves is projected for 30.0 points and 6.8 assists to lead the Lakers, with Walker Kessler at 19.0 points and 15.8 rebounds, while Jalen Johnson answers with 20.4 points and 7.2 rebounds for Atlanta. My take: the Lakers by two and a half on the road is a lean, not a lock, and the Hawks have enough scoring to make this one sweat.
The rest of the board: at 7:00 PM ET, Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons, Detroit 114.9, Washington 101.0, and Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets, Cleveland 108.2, Charlotte 104.2. At 7:30 PM ET, Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors, Toronto 117.7, Memphis 110.4. At 8:00 PM ET, Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks, Dallas 116.6, Indiana 104.5. At 8:30 PM ET, Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, Houston 120.5, Denver 110.8. And the nightcap at 10:00 PM ET, New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors, Golden State 120.8, New Orleans 112.0, the biggest home number on the board.
One more for the road
On the ice, three games, including New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers, 8:00 PM ET: Edmonton 4.3, New York 3.5, and New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks, 10:00 PM ET: New York 3.3, San Jose 2.7. At 9:30 PM ET, Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks, Vancouver 2.8, Philadelphia 2.3. College hoops has 28 games, and the tightest is South Carolina State at Chicago State, 7:00 PM ET: South Carolina State 58.1, Chicago State 57.2. Florida Gulf Coast at Georgia, 7:00 PM ET: Georgia 75.1, Florida Gulf Coast 73.9, is nearly as tight, and Syracuse at Indiana, 6:30 PM ET: Syracuse 77.1, Indiana 71.9, is the name-brand game of the night, with Rice at Stanford, 10:00 PM ET: Stanford 67.4, Rice 65.5, closing the night.
The report card: yesterday's card goes 11-for-21, the coin flip landed and the nightcap was nearly perfect
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured card went 11-for-21 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article. The NFL went 7-for-13, the NBA 2-for-4, the NHL a clean 2-for-2, and college hoops 0-for-2.
The misses were real. Kansas City beat the Jets 35-12 after the sims had New York by a point in Arrowhead, the boldest call on the board and the one that blew up the loudest. New Orleans edged Cleveland 23-22 after the sims had the Browns by twelve on the road, and the Rams won in Washington 20-13 after the sims had the Commanders by five. Denver won at Carolina 26-21 after the sims had the Panthers by nine. Dallas won at Indianapolis 27-23 after the sims had the Colts by almost six, and Green Bay won at New England 45-27 after the sims had the Patriots by almost six. In the NBA, the Clippers beat New Orleans 139-123 after the sims had the Pelicans by five, and the Lakers won in Detroit 121-116 after the sims had the Pistons by three. In college hoops, Virginia beat Arkansas 91-72 after the sims had the Razorbacks by two, and Houston beat California 86-68 after the sims had the Golden Bears by less than one.
But the rest of the card held, and the close calls were the story. Cincinnati won in Atlanta 34-17 after the sims had the Bengals by two tenths, the coin flip landing exactly the way the model leaned. The Giants won in Philadelphia 19-11 after the sims had them by nine on the road, and Chicago beat Tampa Bay 27-24 on Sunday night. Detroit won in Miami 19-9, and the rest of the Sunday slate mostly did what the sims said. On the ice, Boston beat Florida 4-1 and New Jersey shut out Toronto 4-0, for a 2-for-2 night. And the model still gave us gems even in the misses: the Devils landed right on four goals against a projected 4.1, and the Bruins landed on four against a projected 4.3. Eleven winners right, ten wrong, a solid Sunday with the big calls on both sides of the ledger.
GameSim line: Minnesota by four over Buffalo on Monday night, the Lakers by two and a half in Atlanta, and Phoenix and San Antonio dead even at 115.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 11-for-21 on winners, with the Bengals coin flip landing, the nightcap nearly perfect, and the Devils landing right on four goals. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
