The headliner: Thursday night in New York, and the sims like the Giants by six
Thursday, 8:15 PM ET: Washington Commanders at New York Giants. The GameSim projection is New York 25.8, Washington 19.5, across 1,000 simulations. Six points at home on a Thursday night is a real statement, and the model is making it with a full thousand-run sample behind it.
The projected stats back the home side. J.J. McCarthy is projected for 264.5 passing yards and 1.7 touchdowns for the Giants, with Cam Skattebo at 80.1 rushing yards and Malik Nabers at 92.2 receiving yards. Isaiah Likely adds 76.8 receiving yards of his own. Washington's answer, per the sims, is Jayden Daniels at 207.1 passing yards plus 46.0 on the ground, with Stefon Diggs at 55.0 receiving yards leading the Washington pass catchers.
My take: the Giants do not need a perfect night to win a game the sims already have them taking by six, they just need McCarthy to hit the 264-yard number and the run game to keep Washington honest. Washington flips this one if Daniels turns it into a track meet with his legs, because 46 rushing yards from the quarterback changes the math in a hurry. If the Giants control the clock, the model looks right. If Daniels gets loose, Thursday night gets interesting fast.
Memphis at USF is the college appetizer, and Louisiana heads to Monroe
At 8:00 PM ET, Memphis at USF. The GameSim projection is Memphis 30.7, USF 27.1, across 720 simulations. Marcus Stokes is projected for 264.8 passing yards and 2.9 touchdowns for Memphis, with Michael Van Buren Jr. answering at 224.9 passing yards and 1.9 touchdowns for USF. My take: a 3.6-point road lean in a game projected near 58 total points is the sims saying Memphis wins a shootout, not a slog, and USF keeps it close enough that the fourth quarter matters.
Later, at 9:00 PM ET, Louisiana at UL Monroe. The GameSim projection is Louisiana 30.5, UL Monroe 24.1, across 720 simulations. My take: Louisiana by more than six on the road is the steadier call of the two college games tonight, and the sims are not shy about it.
The NBA serves up a dead heat in Minnesota
At 8:00 PM ET, Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves. The GameSim projection is 111.2 apiece, across 280 simulations, a dead heat down to the decimal. My take: the model genuinely cannot tell you who wins this one, and that is the honest answer. Pick a side for fun, but the sims are calling it a coin flip, and the combined total of 222.5 is the highest among tonight's featured games, so the over is the angle the numbers actually support.
Earlier, at 7:00 PM ET, Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards. The GameSim projection is Detroit 111.0, Washington 103.8, across 280 simulations. Seven points on the road is the widest margin among tonight's featured games, and the sims are not hedging it. Also at 7:00 PM ET, Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto 110.4, Philadelphia 109.0, a 1.4-point margin that is nearly as tight as the Minnesota coin flip. And at 9:00 PM ET, Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, Phoenix 110.0, Charlotte 105.0. My take: Detroit is the statement pick of the NBA card, Toronto at Philadelphia is the one to watch if you like close games, and Phoenix by five at home is the quiet lean.
Quick hits from the ice and the college hardwood
On the ice, at 7:00 PM ET, Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs, Minnesota 4.1, Toronto 2.7, and Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins, Montreal 4.0, Boston 3.5, both across 280 simulations.
And from college hoops, at 9:00 PM ET, Montana State at BYU. The GameSim projection is BYU 81.0, Montana State 79.0, across 280 simulations. Here is the number that jumps off the page: the books have BYU by 23.5, while the sims say two. That is a 21-point gap between the model and the market, and it is the biggest value signal on tonight's board. My take: the sims are not saying Montana State wins, they are saying this one stays close, and the spread is the story.
The report card: yesterday's card goes 4-for-11, and the NBA had a rough night
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured card went 4-for-11 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article. The NBA went 4-for-10 and college hoops 0-for-1. It was a rough night, and there is no point dressing it up as anything else.
The misses were real, and most of them came in the NBA. Cleveland won at New York 115-107 after the sims had the Knicks by 9.1. Boston won at Toronto 98-93 after the sims had the Raptors by 1.3, a coin flip that landed the other way. Portland beat Oklahoma City 118-108 after the sims had the Thunder by 1.0, the second night in a row the Blazers made the model look twice. Denver won at Memphis 123-118 after the sims had the Grizzlies by 12.1. Brooklyn won at New Orleans 145-111 after the sims had the Pelicans by 9.9, the biggest miss of the night by a wide margin. Orlando won at Utah 123-108 after the sims had the Jazz by 2.6. And Michigan beat Marquette 84-70 after the sims had Marquette by 22.8, a 37-point swing in Ann Arbor.
But the card was not a wipeout. The Lakers won in Milwaukee 123-112, Houston beat Golden State 115-108, San Antonio won at Chicago 124-119, and Indiana beat Washington 114-101.
And the model deserves credit where it earned it, even on a rough night. Indiana landed on 114 against a projected 114.1, nearly exact, Milwaukee landed on 112 against a projected 110.6, and the Lakers won by 11 to cover the nine-point line. The GameSim line went 2-for-3, with the Lakers covering by nine and the Rockets covering by six, and only the Knicks leg missing. One note on the batch: on the final batch of sims, the card would grade 5-for-11, with Portland at home against Oklahoma City the one game that changed status, the final batch having Portland 110.4, Oklahoma City 109.1. Four winners right, seven wrong, a rough night with the big calls on both sides of the ledger, and the totals and projected stats still did real work underneath it.
GameSim line: New York by six over Washington, Memphis by close to four at USF, and Detroit by seven in Washington.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 4-for-11 on winners, with the NBA at 4-for-10 and the biggest miss in New Orleans, where Brooklyn won by 34 after the sims had the Pelicans by nearly ten. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
