The headliner: Luka and the Lakers roll into Milwaukee, and the sims like the visitors by nine
Wednesday, 8:00 PM ET: Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks. The GameSim projection is Los Angeles 119.2, Milwaukee 110.6, across 280 simulations. Nine points on the road in Milwaukee is a real statement, and the model is making it with a straight face.
The projected stats are headlined by Luka Doncic at 33.2 points for the Lakers, with Austin Reaves at 21.6 in support. Milwaukee's answer, per the sims, is Jaime Jaquez Jr. at 19.3 points, with Ryan Rollins at 14.0, Kyle Kuzma at 13.8, and Walker Kessler at 13.7 points and 12.5 rebounds doing the work inside. That is a balanced Bucks attack, just not a big enough one, not against a Lakers team the model has scoring 119.
My take: the Lakers do not need a perfect night to win a game the sims already have them taking by nine, they just need Luka to be Luka and the supporting cast to hit its marks. Milwaukee flips this one by turning it into a grind and winning the glass, and the Kessler rebounding number says the sims know that is the path. If the Bucks make it ugly, the model looks cautious. If the Lakers get loose in transition, nobody who ran the sims will be surprised.
The Garden gets the Cavs, and the sims have the Knicks by nine
At 7:00 PM ET, Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks. The GameSim projection is New York 115.6, Cleveland 106.5, across 280 simulations. A day after the Knicks hung 117 on Milwaukee at home, the model is right back to the Garden well, and it likes the home side by nine again.
The projected stats back it up. Jalen Brunson is projected for 29.4 points to lead the Knicks, with Karl-Anthony Towns at 23.2 points and 16.7 rebounds doing the dirty work inside. Cleveland's answer, per the sims, is Donovan Mitchell at 20.3 points, with Evan Mobley at 16.1 points and 8.9 rebounds. That is a real scoring punch from the Cavs, just not enough of one, not on the road, not against this frontcourt.
My take: the Knicks do not need a perfect night to cover a number like this, they just need to be themselves at home. Cleveland wins this one by making Brunson work for every bucket and getting second chances on the glass. If Towns controls the paint the way the projection says he will, the Garden gets another comfortable night.
The late show: Curry in Houston, and the highest total on the board
At 9:30 PM ET, Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets. The GameSim projection is Houston 119.7, Golden State 113.9, across 280 simulations. That adds up to 233.6, the highest combined total on tonight's board, and it is the kind of number that tells you the sims expect a track meet, not a wrestling match.
The projected stats are loud on both sides: Stephen Curry at 26.8 points for Golden State, Alperen Sengun answering with 20.0 points and 11.5 rebounds for Houston, and Kevin Durant at 19.4 points in support. My take: Houston by six at home in a game the sims already have near 234 total is a comfortable lean, and Curry at 27 in a shootout is the kind of number that makes the total worth a look. Golden State flips it if Curry gets hot early and drags Houston into a three-point contest on his terms.
Two coin flips, one in Toronto and one in Portland
At 7:00 PM ET, Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors. The GameSim projection is Toronto 114.4, Boston 113.1, across 280 simulations. One and three tenths of a point. The projected stats are a dead heat at the top, RJ Barrett at 23.5 points for Toronto, Jayson Tatum at 23.3 for Boston, with Immanuel Quickley at 19.1 in support. My take: a coin flip with two stars playing at this level is the best kind of Wednesday night television, and the model genuinely cannot tell you who wins it.
And the nightcap, at 10:00 PM ET, Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers. The GameSim projection is Oklahoma City 110.7, Portland 109.7, across 280 simulations, the tightest margin on the board at a single point. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 33.9 points, with Deni Avdija answering at 22.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 6.1 assists for Portland, and Damian Lillard at 19.5 in support. My take: SGA by 34 in a one-point game is the whole story, if he gets there, the Thunder win, if Portland makes him work for every bucket, the Blazers steal the nightcap. Portland already beat the Thunder by 20 last night, so the sims calling it a coin flip tonight is worth a second look.
The rest of the board: Memphis by twelve, and the Spurs keep rolling
At 8:00 PM ET, Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies. The GameSim projection is Memphis 121.9, Denver 109.8, across 280 simulations. Twelve points is the widest margin on tonight's board, and 121.9 is the highest team total too. Ty Jerome is projected for 26.9 points to lead the Grizzlies, with Jamal Murray answering at 24.0 for Denver and Nikola Jokic at 20.2 points and 13.9 rebounds. My take: the sims are saying Memphis at home, right now, is a problem for anybody, even the Joker.
Also at 8:00 PM ET, San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls, San Antonio 114.9, Chicago 104.8, and Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans, New Orleans 114.1, Brooklyn 104.2. Earlier, at 7:00 PM ET, Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, Indiana 114.1, Washington 106.8. And at 9:00 PM ET, Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz, Utah 105.6, Orlando 103.0, another close one at under three points.
One more for the road, from college hoops: at 7:00 PM ET, Marquette at Michigan. The GameSim projection is Marquette 81.9, Michigan 59.1, across 220 simulations. Twenty-three points on the road in Ann Arbor is the kind of number that makes you check the sims twice, and the model ran it 220 times and kept getting the same answer.
The report card: yesterday's card goes 8-for-11, with the NBA doing the damage
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured card went 8-for-11 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article. The NBA went 3-for-6, the NHL 2-for-2, and college football a perfect 3-for-3. One game was a no-call, Florida at Columbus dead even at 3.3 apiece.
The misses were real, and they all came in the NBA. Miami won in Utah 115-109 after the sims had the Jazz by a tenth of a point, a coin flip that landed six points the other way. Orlando won in Sacramento 107-100 after the sims had the Kings by nearly five. And Portland beat Oklahoma City 123-103 after the sims had the Thunder by seven tenths, the same Blazers who host the Thunder again tonight.
But the rest of the card held. The Knicks beat Milwaukee 117-85, a 32-point win that covered the ten-point line and then some, Boston won in Philadelphia 123-101, and Phoenix beat the Clippers 133-110. On the ice, Colorado won in Toronto 6-3 and St. Louis beat Detroit 3-2. In the MAC, Miami (Ohio) beat Ohio 34-17, Western Michigan won at Akron 42-14, and Bowling Green beat Kent State 33-28.
And the model deserves credit where it earned it, even on a split night. Orlando landed on 107 against a projected 107.3, nearly exact, Utah landed on 109 against a projected 110.8 in the coin flip, Toronto landed on 3 against a projected 3.5 on the ice, and Detroit landed on 2 against a projected 2.5. The GameSim line went 2-for-2, with the Knicks covering by ten and the Celtics covering by four, and the Miami-Utah dead heat a no-call. One note on the batch: on the final batch of sims, the card would grade 9-for-11, with Miami at Utah the one game that changed status, the final batch having Miami 111.0, Utah 110.6. Eight winners right, three wrong, a split night with the big calls on both sides of the ledger.
GameSim line: Los Angeles by nine in Milwaukee, New York by nine at the Garden, and Houston by six over Golden State.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 8-for-11 on winners, with college football a perfect 3-for-3 and the NBA the soft spot at 3-for-6. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
