Three games offer three different kinds of tests on Nov. 11: a Mid-American Conference meeting with a sizable projected scoring gap, a conference matchup our simulations see as much tighter than the market line suggests, and a nonconference visit from the Big Sky. The central question across the slate is how each offense will turn its projected production into points.
Massachusetts at Toledo
The conference card opens with Massachusetts visiting Toledo. The model projects a 30.5-23.6 Toledo result, with the Rockets winning 60% of 1,000 simulations. That puts the projected margin at 6.9 points, notably narrower than the 14-point Vegas spread. The 53.5 total points line gives this matchup a lively scoring backdrop, though the model’s combined projection is 54.1.
Quarterbacks could set the tone. Toledo’s John Alan Richter is projected for 262.1 passing yards and 2.7 touchdowns, while Massachusetts’ William Watson III is forecast for 239.5 yards and 1.9 scores. On the ground, CJ Miller’s 106.1 projected rushing yards make him a key piece of Toledo’s attack; Autavius Ison adds a projected 66.3 yards. The Minutemen’s Elijah Faulkner and Curtis Kimmons IV are each projected below 41 rushing yards, putting extra attention on Watson’s arm if Massachusetts is to keep pace. See the Massachusetts-Toledo prediction.
Buffalo at Ball State
Buffalo and Ball State bring the slate’s closest projected contest. GameSim gives Ball State a 26.4-20.1 edge and a 59% win probability across 1,000 simulations. The six-point projected margin makes this one worth watching, particularly with the listed spread at three points and a 51.5-point total.
Ball State’s Keldric Luster is projected to throw for 246.6 yards and 2.3 touchdowns, and the model also gives him 36.7 rushing yards. Buffalo’s Jason Wright is forecast for 220.2 passing yards and 1.3 touchdowns. The Cardinals have multiple projected contributors on the ground: Jalen Bonds at 55.9 yards and TJ Horton at 52.8. Explore the Buffalo-Ball State simulation.
Sacramento State at Central Michigan
The nonconference matchup pairs Big Sky visitor Sacramento State with Mid-American host Central Michigan. The model projects a 29.1-7.3 Central Michigan result, with the Chippewas winning 81% of 1,180 simulations. Its projected total of 36.4 points sits below the 44.5 Vegas total.
Central Michigan’s ground game stands out in the projections: Angel H Flores is forecast for 109.8 rushing yards and a touchdown, while Jadyn Glasser is projected for 136.4 passing yards and 1.7 touchdowns. Sacramento State quarterback Jackson Sharman is projected for 153.5 yards and 0.7 touchdowns. View the Sacramento State-Central Michigan prediction.
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