Tuesday night in college hoops, and the sims like the favorites in both games of the doubleheader
Tonight, 7:00 PM ET: Michigan State at Duke. The GameSim projection is Duke 76.8, Michigan State 70.4, across 200 simulations. The Blue Devils at home in Cameron, favored by 6.4 in the early game of a marquee Tuesday doubleheader.
Projected stats to watch: Patrick Ngongba II leads the Duke projection at 13.8 points and 9.3 rebounds, with Jeremy Fears Jr. answering for Michigan State at 13.3 points and 5.2 assists. My take: six points at home is a real number for Duke, not a shrug, and the sims are saying the Blue Devils win this one in their own building. Michigan State is the kind of team that makes you earn it for forty minutes, so if the Spartans drag this into a grind, the sims look shaky. If Duke gets out in transition and the home crowd gets loud, nobody who ran the sims will be surprised.
Tonight, 9:30 PM ET: Kansas at Kentucky. The GameSim projection is Kansas 79.2, Kentucky 71.7, across 200 simulations. The Jayhawks on the road in Lexington, favored by 7.5 in the nightcap, the bigger call of the two.
Projected stats to watch: Trey Kaufman-Renn leads the Kansas projection at 13.2 points and 6.9 rebounds, with Milan Momcilovic answering for Kentucky at 12.6 points. My take: seven and a half on the road is a loud call, and the sims are not hedging on this one. Kentucky at home in Rupp is never an easy out, so if the Wildcats make this a street fight, the model has some explaining to do. If Kansas controls the glass the way the projection says, the nightcap could be decided before the final media timeout.
One number to watch: the sims have the early game at 147.2 combined points and the nightcap at 150.9, so if you like offense under the lights, both games give you something to watch. Run your own sims before tipoff and tell me where the model is wrong.
GameSim line: Duke by 6.4 over Michigan State, and Kansas by 7.5 over Kentucky.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and the games have not been played yet. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong tonight.
