Three non-conference games bring three different kinds of intrigue on November 10: a major-conference measuring stick, a Memphis trip into SEC territory and a Florida-FSU matchup that the simulations see as nearly even. The biggest projected scoring gap belongs to the Arizona game, but the night’s closest forecast may deliver the most tension.
Northern Arizona at Arizona
For Northern Arizona, the challenge is finding ways to keep pace with an Arizona side expected to have several scoring options. The matchup pairs Big Sky and Big 12 programs, and our model projects an 86.4-67.2 Arizona result, giving the Wildcats a 74% win probability across 200 simulations. Follow the full Northern Arizona-Arizona prediction.
Northern Arizona guard Chris Komin is projected to lead the visitors with 19.2 points, while Ryan Abelman adds a projected 12.9. That gives the Lumberjacks a pair of scoring targets to build around. Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas is forecast for 19.0 points and 9.2 rebounds, with Caleb Holt and Ivan Kharchenkov also projected above 14 points. If the Wildcats spread the production as expected, Northern Arizona will need a strong night from Komin and a way to limit Krivas around the basket.
Memphis at Vanderbilt
The Memphis-Vanderbilt meeting offers a different test: an American program visiting an SEC opponent, with the model leaning toward the home side but not treating the game as a runaway. Vanderbilt is projected to win 77.7-70.9 and has a 59% win probability. The Memphis-Vanderbilt prediction page has the full simulation details.
Tyler Tanner stands out in the projections for Vanderbilt, with 19.0 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists. Memphis may look to Jayden Reid to organize its offense: the guard is forecast for 4.4 assists alongside 12.6 points. If Reid can create opportunities and the Tigers get enough scoring support, they could make Vanderbilt work for its projected edge. Ace Glass is another Commodore to watch, with 12.6 points projected.
Florida at FSU
The tightest model call comes in the in-state meeting between Florida and FSU. Florida is projected to prevail 81.2-78.5, but its win probability is only 53% across 200 simulations. That narrow margin sets up a game where a few possessions could matter. See the Florida-FSU prediction.
Florida’s projected frontcourt production is a key storyline: Rueben Chinyelu is forecast for 13.1 points and 10.7 rebounds, Thomas Haugh for 14.6 points and 7.9 boards, and Alex Condon for 12.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists. FSU’s Sebastian Rancik leads his team’s listed projections at 15.2 points. The Gators’ depth around the glass meets an FSU group that has a narrow path to turn the model’s close call its way.
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