The headliner: the Knicks by ten at the Garden, and the sims are not being polite about it
Tuesday, 7:30 PM ET: Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks. The GameSim projection is New York 111.7, Milwaukee 101.6, across 280 simulations. Ten points at Madison Square Garden is not a lean, it is the model telling you these two teams are in different weight classes right now.
The projected stats back it up. Jalen Brunson is projected for 24.4 points to lead the Knicks, with Karl-Anthony Towns at 19.8 points and 15.7 rebounds doing the dirty work inside. Milwaukee's answer, per the sims, is Tyler Herro at 21.6 points, with Kyle Kuzma chipping in 11.8. That is a real scoring punch from the Bucks, just not enough of one, not on the road, not against this frontcourt.
My take: the Knicks do not need a perfect night to cover a number like this, they just need to be themselves at home. Milwaukee has to shoot the lights out and win the glass to flip it, and the sims ran it 280 times and kept getting the same answer. If Herro gets hot early and drags this into a shootout, the model looks cautious. If the Garden does what the Garden does, nobody who ran the sims will be surprised.
Boston heads to Philly with the champs' edge, and the sims keep it close
At 8:00 PM ET, Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers. The GameSim projection is Boston 108.5, Philadelphia 104.6, across 280 simulations. Four points on the road in a rivalry building is a real number, and the sims are saying the Celtics are just a little bit better, right now, in a game neither side can afford to shrug off.
The projected stats are a dead heat at the top: Tyrese Maxey at 23.7 points for Philadelphia, Jayson Tatum at 23.7 points for Boston, with Jaylen Brown at 19.5 and Joel Embiid at 15.1 points and 11.7 rebounds for the Sixers. My take: when the two stars cancel each other out on paper, the game comes down to the margins, and the model trusts Boston's margins more. Philly wins this one by making it ugly and physical. Boston wins it by being Boston.
The coin flip of the night lives in Salt Lake City
At 9:00 PM ET, Miami Heat at Utah Jazz. The GameSim projection is Utah 110.8, Miami 110.7, across 280 simulations. One tenth of a point. That is the model throwing its hands up and telling you to watch anyway, because somebody has to win it and the sims genuinely cannot tell you who.
The projected stats are loud on both sides: Giannis Antetokounmpo at 26.3 points and 16.8 rebounds for Miami, Lauri Markkanen answering with 24.4 points for Utah, and Bam Adebayo at 16.9 points and 10.7 rebounds in support. My take: a coin flip with two stars playing at this level is the best kind of Tuesday night television. The sims split it down the middle, so bet the game, not the number, and enjoy the last five minutes.
The rest of the board: Booker at home, and SGA closing the night
Also at 9:00 PM ET, Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns. The GameSim projection is Phoenix 118.2, Los Angeles 112.3, across 280 simulations. Devin Booker is projected for 27.3 points to lead the Suns, with Darius Garland answering at 19.2 points and 7.1 assists for the Clippers. My take: Phoenix by six at home is a comfortable lean, and Booker at 27 in a game the sims already like the Suns in is the kind of number that makes the total worth a look.
At 10:00 PM ET, Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings. The GameSim projection is Sacramento 112.0, Orlando 107.3, across 280 simulations. And the nightcap, at 11:00 PM ET, Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers. The GameSim projection is Oklahoma City 111.3, Portland 110.6, across 280 simulations, a seven-tenths coin flip for the late crowd. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 32.7 points, with Deni Avdija answering at 22.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.3 assists for Portland. My take: SGA by 33 in a one-point game is the whole story, if he gets there, the Thunder win, if Portland makes him work for every bucket, the Blazers steal the nightcap.
One more for the road: a measuring stick in Toronto, and MACtion's own coin flip
On the ice, seven games, and the one to circle is Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:00 PM ET: Colorado 4.4, Toronto 3.5. The sims like the Avs on the road, which says plenty about where these two teams sit. Also at 7:00 PM ET, Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues, 8:00 PM ET: St. Louis 4.2, Detroit 2.5, the biggest lean on the ice. And Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7:30 PM ET, is dead even at 3.3 apiece.
College football gives us Tuesday MACtion, and the rivalry game is the one to watch. At 8:00 PM ET, Ohio at Miami (Ohio): Miami 23.2, Ohio 23.0, across 1,000 simulations. Two tenths of a point in the Battle of the Bricks, the kind of game the sims refuse to call. Caleb Heavner is projected for 223.7 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns for Miami, with Nick Poulos answering at 180.3 yards and 1.8 touchdowns for Ohio. Earlier, at 7:00 PM ET, Western Michigan at Akron, 28.0 to 20.9, and Kent State at Bowling Green, Bowling Green 23.9, Kent State 20.3.
The report card: yesterday's card goes 9-for-16, and the Phoenix coin flip was the biggest swing
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured card went 9-for-16 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article. The NBA went 5-for-8, college hoops 3-for-4, the NHL 1-for-3, and the NFL 0-for-1.
The misses were real, and the biggest swing came in Phoenix. San Antonio won in Phoenix 122-96 after the sims had the Suns by a tenth of a point, a coin flip that landed 26 points the other way. Monday night was the loudest miss, though. Buffalo beat Minnesota 23-6 after the sims had the Vikings by four at home, 26.8 to 22.8. Minnesota scored six points. Six. That is the kind of night that reminds you a projection is a probability, not a promise, and the Bills earned every bit of that upset. In the NBA, Charlotte beat Cleveland 124-112 after the sims had the Cavaliers by four, and Memphis won in Toronto 118-102 after the sims had the Raptors by seven. On the ice, Philadelphia won in Vancouver 3-1 after the sims had the Canucks by half a goal, and San Jose beat the Islanders 3-2 after the sims had New York by half a goal. In college hoops, Indiana beat Syracuse 83-80 after the sims had the Orange by five.
But the rest of the card held, and the NBA did the heavy lifting. The Lakers won in Atlanta 124-114, with the Hawks landing on 114 against a projected 116.0, Detroit beat Washington 122-111, Dallas beat Indiana 125-122, Houston beat Denver 110-100, and Golden State blew out New Orleans 138-87, the winner right even if the margin ran away from the projection. On the ice, Edmonton beat the Rangers 3-1 as projected. In college hoops, South Carolina State won at Chicago State 82-67, Georgia beat Florida Gulf Coast 80-72, with the Eagles landing on 72 against a projected 73.9, and Stanford beat Rice 91-73. Nine winners right, seven wrong, a split night with the big calls on both sides of the ledger, and the GameSim line went 1-for-2, with the Lakers the one that landed and the Phoenix coin flip a no-call.
GameSim line: New York by ten over Milwaukee at the Garden, Boston by four in Philadelphia, and Miami and Utah dead even at 111.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 9-for-16 on winners, with the NBA carrying the card at 5-for-8 and Monday night the loud miss. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
