Week 9 has the usual heavyweights, and most of those prices line up with our simulations. The games worth circling are the ones where the books and GameSim are looking at different teams. One of them is Friday night, so this is not a list you want to save for Saturday morning.
Here is where the sims see upset potential.
SMU at Syracuse
This is the loudest flip on the board. SMU is laying 9.5 on the road at -355, and Syracuse is +280 at home. That price gives the Orange about a 1 in 4 shot.
Our sims do not see a close call. Syracuse wins 76.2% of the runs and averages a 34.1 to 25.1 score. The Carrier Dome has a way of turning a comfortable road favorite into a problem, and the model thinks noon on Saturday is one of those games. If you only open one prediction this week, make it the SMU at Syracuse prediction.
Notre Dame at Navy
Notre Dame is laying about 30 points, and Navy is priced around +3000. The market is treating this like a mismatch that should be over by halftime.
GameSim still likes the Irish, but not like that. Notre Dame wins 70.4% of simulations, which means Navy wins 29.6% of them, and the projected score is 30.2 to 23.0. That is a one score game wearing a 30 point price tag. The Midshipmen at that number are the biggest gap between the model and the books this weekend. Full look: Notre Dame at Navy prediction.
Texas State at Boise State
The late window on the blue turf has Boise State laying 11.5 at -470. Texas State is +360, which prices the Bobcats around a 1 in 5 shot.
The sims flip it. Texas State wins 61.7% of runs, with a projected score of 38.6 to 35.5. A road dog the model actually favors, at plus money, in a game the total says will be a shootout, is about as clean as an upset spot gets. See the Texas State at Boise State prediction.
Baylor at UCF (Friday)
Friday night, and the books have this as a toss-up. UCF is a short home favorite, laying about a field goal or less, after a week that already shook up the line.
GameSim is not split. UCF wins 80.0% of simulations and projects to win 27.9 to 17.4. When a game is priced like a coin flip and the model has it as a comfortable home win, that is the spot. Details: Baylor at UCF prediction.
Utah at Cincinnati
Utah is laying 6.5 on the road and sitting around -250, with Cincinnati near +200. The market likes the Utes. It does not love them.
The sims lean the other way, and not by a blowout. Cincinnati wins 56.0% of runs, with a projected score of 34.0 to 31.3. Nippert at night has a habit of tightening these games, and plus money on the sim favorite is the side worth circling. Check the Utah at Cincinnati prediction.
Auburn at Ole Miss
Ole Miss is still the pick in our sims, so this one is a price play. The Rebels are laying 13.5 at -535, and Auburn is out at +400. That number gives Auburn about a 1 in 5 shot.
Auburn wins 33.1% of the runs, and the average score is only Ole Miss 33.2, Auburn 26.6. A projected one score game with a two touchdown spread is a gap worth noticing. Full breakdown: Auburn at Ole Miss prediction.
Quick hitters
- Wisconsin at Iowa: Iowa is laying 3.5 at -170. The sims call it a coin flip. Wisconsin wins 46.5% of runs at +142, and the projected score is 22.0 to 20.8.
- Michigan at Rutgers: Michigan is laying about 14 at -650. Rutgers wins 40.0% of sims and is priced closer to 18% at +470. The projected score is only 24.6 to 21.8.
- Troy at James Madison (Thursday): JMU is laying about 21. Troy wins 25.9% of runs, and the average margin is closer to a touchdown than three scores, 27.5 to 19.8.
For every game on the Week 9 slate, check out the full college football predictions board. Detailed projected player stats for all games are available exclusively to GameSim+ subscribers. Learn more and subscribe here.
