Two conference games give Thursday’s college football slate a pair of distinct scripts: a projected one-score finish in the American Athletic Conference and a Sun Belt matchup where the favorite faces a lively passing threat. The simulations see both games tilting toward the favored visitors, but neither forecast suggests the home side can be overlooked.
Memphis and USF brace for a close American test
Memphis heads to USF in a conference matchup that projects to stay competitive into the closing stretch. GameSim’s 720 simulations give Memphis a 55% win probability and forecast a 30.7-27.1 result. That narrow margin makes this the slate’s clearest test of whether the Bulls can turn their home setting into an edge.
The quarterbacks give the game its central contrast. Memphis’ Marcus Stokes is projected for 264.8 passing yards and 2.9 touchdowns, a forecast that puts pressure on the USF defense to limit scoring opportunities. USF’s Michael Van Buren Jr. is projected for 224.9 yards and 1.9 touchdown passes, with D.J. Crowther adding a projected 80.7 rushing yards and 0.5 touchdowns. If Crowther can help keep the offense balanced, USF has a route to make Memphis work for every possession.
Memphis has a ground-game contribution of its own in the model: Jaylin Carter is projected for 78.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. The Vegas spread is six points, with an over/under of 49.5; GameSim’s projected combined score is higher, at 57.8. The model’s full matchup forecast is available on the Memphis-USF prediction page.
Louisiana’s offense meets a UL Monroe passing threat
In the Sun Belt, Louisiana visits UL Monroe. The simulations project a 30.5-24.1 Louisiana win, assigning the visitors a 59% win probability across 720 runs. That is a more comfortable forecast than the Memphis game, though it still leaves room for the Warhawks to make the matchup interesting.
UL Monroe quarterback Aidan Armenta is projected for 252.2 passing yards and 2.1 touchdowns, giving the home side a substantial aerial option. Louisiana’s D’Wayne’ Winfield is projected to contribute through both phases: 190.9 passing yards and 2.0 touchdown passes, plus 72.9 rushing yards and 0.5 touchdowns. That dual-threat projection gives the Ragin’ Cajuns an intriguing way to keep the defense guessing, while JJ Garner is forecast for another 52.7 rushing yards.
Vegas lists Louisiana as a 10.5-point favorite and sets the total at 48.5. The model’s projected margin is smaller, a useful reminder that the spread and simulation offer different reads on the matchup. See the full forecast on the Louisiana-UL Monroe prediction page.
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