The NFC West has been the NFL’s heavyweight room for half a decade: three Super Bowl trips in five years, two champions, and a fourth team that keeps buying time with skill players even when the wins do not follow. Seattle finished 14-3 in the regular season, won the conference, and lifted the trophy. Los Angeles went 12-5 and lost two classic playoff games to the Seahawks. San Francisco went 12-5 and stayed in the picture. Arizona went 3-14 and 0-6 inside the division. ESPN’s NFC West preview frames 2026-27 as a three-team Super Bowl race with the Rams as betting favorites and Seattle as the team that still owns the trophy.
This is part of GameSim’s 2026-27 NFL division preview series. Already posted:
- NFC East: Simulations Back Philadelphia as Clear Division Favorite
- NFC North: Simulations Back Detroit as Clear Division Favorite
- NFC South: Simulations Split Tampa Bay and Atlanta
VSiN’s division preview calls the West the strongest division in football and installs Los Angeles as a modest division favorite around +100, with Seattle, San Francisco, and Arizona stacked behind. The Rams added Myles Garrett. Seattle returns most of a Super Bowl roster. San Francisco still projects as dangerous when healthy. Our 2026-27 division sims agree on the strength. They do not agree on a runaway favorite. Seattle wins 19 of 25 (76 percent) against the Rams on Christmas at Lumen Field. Arizona wins 17 of 25 (68 percent) against the Rams at home in Week 10. San Francisco wins 18 of 25 (72 percent) against Seattle at home in Week 5. This is a home-field division until someone proves otherwise on the road.
What 2025 actually looked like
Seattle went 14-3 and 4-2 in the NFC West. Los Angeles and San Francisco both went 12-5 and 4-2. Arizona went 3-14 and 0-6. That is three teams at twelve wins or better and a fourth team that never sniffed .500. The Rams led the division in scoring at 30.5 points per game. Seattle led the league in point differential and ranked first nationally on our board at 28.4 scored and 17.2 allowed. Arizona ranked twenty-ninth nationally and allowed 28.7 points per game.
| Team | Record | NFC West | GameSim rank | Adj. offense (PPG) | Adj. defense (PAPG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 14-3 | 4-2 | 1 | 28.4 | 17.2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 12-5 | 4-2 | 2 | 30.5 | 20.4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 | 4-2 | 9 | 25.7 | 21.8 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 | 0-6 | 29 | 20.9 | 28.7 |
Read the table the way the engine does. Seattle finished first nationally on efficiency even though the Rams scored more points per game. San Francisco ranked ninth with the same 12-5 record as Los Angeles because the point profile was a step behind. Arizona ranked twenty-ninth and went winless in the division. VSiN and ESPN both treat this as a three-team race at the top. The 2025 computer agrees. It also agrees that Arizona is still a basement team on the efficiency sheet even with Jeremiyah Love and Trey McBride on the roster file.
The 2026-27 setup: Garrett in LA, Darnold defending, Purdy pushing back
Live 2026-27 team rankings are not posted yet, so the 2025 computer is the baseline and the 2027 projected roster file is what the simulator uses until enough real games exist. VSiN and ESPN both orbit the same storylines: Myles Garrett in Los Angeles, Sam Darnold running it back in Seattle, Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey keeping San Francisco in win-now mode, and Arizona trying to climb out of the cellar under a new coaching staff.
Projected pass leaders for 2026-27 in the division:
- Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles): 4,191 yards, 34 TDs, 8 INTs
- Brock Purdy (San Francisco): 4,118 yards, 27 TDs, 14 INTs
- Sam Darnold (Seattle): 4,089 yards, 27 TDs, 12 INTs
- Jacoby Brissett (Arizona): 3,592 yards, 19 TDs, 10 INTs
Projected rush leaders:
- Kyren Williams (Los Angeles): 1,172 yards, 10 TDs
- Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco): 1,077 yards, 8 TDs
- Jeremiyah Love (Arizona): 1,079 yards, 7 TDs
- Jadarian Price (Seattle): 911 yards, 8 TDs
Projected receiving headliners: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,622 yards), Puka Nacua (1,617), Trey McBride (1,099), Mike Evans (918 on the San Francisco file). Stafford’s touchdown projection leads the division. JSN and Puka are essentially tied for WR1 volume. McBride keeps Arizona’s passing tree viable. Evans on the 49ers file is the kind of roster wrinkle the external previews keep circling around.
The title contenders
Los Angeles Rams: the betting favorite who still has to win in Seattle
Los Angeles finished second nationally, led the division in scoring at 30.5 points per game, and projects 4,191 yards and 34 touchdowns from Stafford with Puka Nacua at 1,617 receiving yards. VSiN’s +100 division line and ESPN’s power-index love agree: the Rams are the team to beat on paper, especially with Garrett joining an already strong defense. Our 2026-27 sims add the caveat. Los Angeles is not winning road division games by default. The Rams lose 19 of 25 (76 percent) at Seattle on Christmas. They lose 17 of 25 (68 percent) at Arizona in Week 10. They beat the Cardinals 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home in Week 6 and edge Seattle 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home in Week 18. The Rams look like a favorite. The schedule still runs through Lumen Field.
Seattle Seahawks: the champion the sims trust at home
Seattle went 14-3, ranked first nationally on point differential, and projects 4,089 yards from Darnold with JSN at 1,622 receiving yards. The external previews treat the Seahawks as the team holding the trophy while Los Angeles chases them. Our sims treat Seattle like a different animal at home: 19 of 25 (76 percent) against the Rams on Christmas, 18 of 25 (72 percent) against San Francisco in Week 5, 15 of 25 (60 percent) against Arizona in Week 9. If Seattle repeats as division champion, it will look like a home-field rampage again, not a road masterpiece.
San Francisco 49ers: the third team that can still ruin everyone’s January
San Francisco went 12-5, ranked ninth nationally, and projects 4,118 yards from Purdy with McCaffrey at 1,077 rushing yards. ESPN and VSiN both keep the 49ers in the Super Bowl conversation when the injury report cooperates. Our sims give San Francisco a real home path: 16 of 25 (64 percent) against Arizona in Week 3, 15 of 25 (60 percent) against Seattle in Week 12, 15 of 25 (60 percent) against the Rams in Week 14. Purdy on the road is shakier in our sample. Purdy at Levi’s still moves the division.
Arizona Cardinals: 0-6 in 2025, dangerous in the desert
Arizona went 3-14, 0-6 in the division, and ranked twenty-ninth nationally with a 28.7 points-allowed number that is hard to spin. Brissett’s 3,592-yard projection, Love’s 1,079 rushing yards, and McBride’s 1,099 receiving yards are the counterargument. VSiN and ESPN both note the roster upgrades and the new coaching bet. Our sims give Arizona a home upset path: 17 of 25 (68 percent) against the Rams in Week 10, 14 of 25 (56 percent) against San Francisco in Week 18, and a 13-of-25 (52 percent) coin flip against Seattle in Week 2. The Cardinals are not winning the division on efficiency. They can still wreck Los Angeles’s month.
The games that will decide the division
Featured division games are 25 simulations with 2027 projected rosters and home-field advantage. Treat the percentages as a directional read. Open the prediction page or rerun at 100 simulations for a tighter number.
Sept. 10: San Francisco at Los Angeles (Week 1)
Twenty-five fresh simulations have the Rams 31.3-27.8, winning 13 of 25 (52 percent) at home. The stored Week 1 prediction board (3,920 runs) has Los Angeles 33.3-27.0, winning 68 percent. Same matchup, different sample size. Open the board or rerun at 100 sims if you want a sharper Week 1 number before the season starts.
Sept. 20: Seattle at Arizona (Week 2)
Twenty-five simulations have Arizona 24.8-20.9, winning 13 of 25 (52 percent) at home. A coin flip in the desert. Love and McBride at home against a Seattle team the previews still treat as the defending champion.
Sept. 27: Arizona at San Francisco (Week 3)
Twenty-five simulations have San Francisco 28.7-23.9, winning 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home. Purdy and McCaffrey at Levi’s against a Cardinals team that went 0-6 in the division last year.
Oct. 11: San Francisco at Seattle (Week 5)
Twenty-five simulations have Seattle 30.2-23.9, winning 18 of 25 (72 percent) at home. The loudest Seattle number on the slate. Darnold and JSN at Lumen Field against Purdy on the road in a game the external previews treat like a conference-seeding swing.
Oct. 18: Arizona at Los Angeles (Week 6)
Twenty-five simulations have the Rams 29.9-24.8, winning 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home. Stafford at SoFi against Brissett is one of the spots where our board gives Los Angeles a clear home favorite lean.
Nov. 8: Arizona at Seattle (Week 9)
Twenty-five simulations have Seattle 27.0-24.0, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) at home. A moderate home lean, not a wipeout. The kind of game Arizona has to steal if it wants out of the basement.
Nov. 15: Los Angeles at Arizona (Week 10)
Twenty-five simulations have Arizona 30.4-24.5, winning 17 of 25 (68 percent) at home. The first major upset lean on the board. Stafford on the road in Glendale is not a division coronation.
Nov. 29: Seattle at San Francisco (Week 12)
Twenty-five simulations have San Francisco 31.0-29.1, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) at home. A high-scoring home lean in a potential tiebreaker game. Both teams finished 12-5 last year. Our board likes Levi’s by a touchdown on average.
Dec. 13: Los Angeles at San Francisco (Week 14)
Twenty-five simulations have San Francisco 32.6-30.8, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) at home. Another shootout lean. The Rams are not the automatic road favorite in this division even with Stafford’s projection leading the West.
Dec. 25: Los Angeles at Seattle (Week 16, Christmas)
Twenty-five simulations have Seattle 32.7-24.9, winning 19 of 25 (76 percent) at home. The division’s pivot game. If Los Angeles is going to win the West, it probably needs to steal one of these road spots. Our board says no on Christmas. ESPN and VSiN both treated this as the Rams’ hardest division assignment last year. The sims agree.
Jan. 10: Seattle at Los Angeles (Week 18)
Twenty-five simulations have the Rams 30.2-24.4, winning 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home. A potential seeding game at SoFi. Seattle won the title in 2025. Our board still likes Los Angeles at home when the regular season closes.
Jan. 10: San Francisco at Arizona (Week 18)
Twenty-five simulations have Arizona 25.5-26.0, winning 14 of 25 (56 percent) at home. A slight home lean in a potential spoiler game. Close enough that the West might still come down to tiebreakers.
How to use GameSim on this season
Start with the NFL teams directory, then use each team page for predictions and ratings. The rankings will fill in once the season has enough games. For any Sunday, the predictions board updates as we run the slate.
To test Stafford versus Purdy at Levi’s, Darnold versus Stafford on Christmas, or Arizona’s home slate against Los Angeles, open the NFL game simulator and set both years to 2027.
Try the 2026-27 season yourself. Any registered MyGameSim user can simulate NFL matchups now. Free accounts get up to 3 current-season sims per day. Register free or log in. GameSim+ subscribers get unlimited simulations.
Detailed projected player stats stay behind GameSim+. Developers can hit the same engine through the GameSim API.
Our working read: Seattle is the defending champion on the 2025 computer and the team our sims trust most at home. Los Angeles is the betting favorite with the division’s best projected passing offense and the second-best national efficiency profile from last season. San Francisco is the third team that can beat both at Levi’s. Arizona went 0-6 in the division and still wins 68 percent of a home sample against the Rams. In a division the previews call the strongest in football, the computer and the sims agree on the talent and disagree on a clear favorite: home field still runs the NFC West.
