Lest you thought the ACC schedule would bring some respite from the grueling standard of our nonconference slate, stand corrected: conference play kicks off tomorrow with the defending ACC Tournament champions from South Bend, Indiana. 48 hours later, we get Virginia Tech, which feels like a mismatch except a.) we’re playing in Cassell, which has an affect on us akin to Muhammad Ali fighting Butterbean in the confines of a half-full metal trashcan, and b.) it’s in that dreaded Monday at 9pm slot where strange things seem to always be afoot. The moral? Don’t get cocky.
The Irish are 9-3 to start the season, with impressive wins over Iowa and Stony Brook (a 25-point blowout of Pomeroy’s 63rd-ranked team) balanced by a loss to Alabama and closer-than-they-shoulda-been wins over Milwaukee and Youngstown State. The biggest thing that jumps out at me from looking at them on paper is that they’re struggling on D: opponents are scoring more than a point per possession (1.02, placing them in the bottom half of all teams). The culprit appears to be perimeter defense: with Pat Connaughton and Jerian Grant gone, the Irish aren’t forcing turnovers (just 15.4% of possessions) and are yielding a high return on threes (foes are hitting 38.7%, 308th nationally). It should go without saying, but those numbers play right into our hands: we’re fifth in the country in turnover rate (13.8%) and have been very good (41.2%) from behind the arc, especially lately (24-48 in our last four games). Notre Dame’s saving graces are the defensive glass (72.1%), the shot blocking of Zach Auguste (4.2% of shot attempts) and Bonzie Colson (4.7%), and an aversion to fouls (opponents take 22 FTs per 100 shots, the third best mark in the country), though that’s tied to the lack of aggression that keeps them from forcing turnovers. Mike Brey has always been into conservative D and contesting without going too far.
Their offense has been a Brey special: they’re sixth nationally in efficiency (118.6), hitting 39.1% of their threes (42nd), grabbing more than a third (34.7%) of their own misses, and being smart with the ball (a 15.3% turnover rate). All five of their starters are averaging double figure points, four of them are shooting better than 50% from the field, and three have made double-digit threes (Bonzie Colson has made two).
Demetrious Jackson, who has moved onto the ball with Grant’s departure, scares me little. Jackson leads the Irish in scoring (16.3 ppg), and he’s the kind of waterbug guard with the shakes to get into the lane when he wants and the wiles to know what to do when he gets there — so, he’s the kind who has been giving us fits this season. Jackson can shoot (37.2% on threes), has a nice array of floaters and tricks in the lane, and assists on 25.3% of Notre Dame’s baskets (4.8 per game) when he’s on the court. Jackson’s low post counterpart is Zach Auguste (14.3 points per game), who has been dominant on both backboards (13% offensive, 27.5% defensive) and whose adroit use of his length (6’10” with Shayok arms) and athleticism leads to his drawing six fouls per game. Steve Vasturia is crafty (3.0 assists per game and a great cutter) and can shoot (37.5% from deep) and 6’8” V.J. Beachem is the volume shooter (78 of his 120 shots have been threes, and he’s hitting 47.4%). Notre Dame isn’t deep — not “they go nine deep but the last two are freshmen” shallow, more like only two reserves average double digit minutes, so that’ll help us — but their starters are a finely-tuned instrument.
I think if Malcolm can rally through this recent slump (1-18 on twos in our last three games thanks to some iffy shot selection) to reclaim his mojo and become more than a three point shooter, he’ll be our difference maker. He’s too big for Jackson, too straight line fast for Vasturia, and too shifty for Beachem. If he’s doubled, Notre Dame will have to pick from among London (who has made 10 of his last 14 threes), Darius (10 of 24 for the year) and Isaiah (hitting 52.4% of two point jumpers — an elite rate that makes them worth taking), and he’s been very good at finding guys (4.7 assists per game over our last three). Auguste — a mobile big with two inches on him — will be a tough test for AG, especially since Auguste is as good at avoiding fouls (just 3.3 called per 40) as AG is at drawing them (6.3 per 40).
From there, we’ll need to keep Jackson from having his way in the lane (something we did pretty well against Kay Felder on the 30th, despite his numbers) and prevent Auguste from getting them second and third chances (and especially kickouts to Beachem and Vasturia) on the offensive glass — something that may again find us depending on Mike Tobey (cue minor chord-laden ominous sound).
Verdict:
Here are the national ranks: we’re fourth in offensive efficiency and 12th on D. Notre Dame is sixth in offensive efficiency and… (drum roll) 177th on D. Assuming we set an alarm or wear rubber bands on our wrists or Post-Its on our jerseys or whatever is necessary to remember to have the blockers block and movers move in the first half — something that’s been an issue lately — we should be fine. I think we win by eight in a pretty game.
