This is where I am right now as a fan:
Virginia is about to play an NC State team with a lame duck coach and one win in the last month that has allowed opponents offensive ratings over 120 in 10 of their 16 ACC games and has by all appearances checked out for the season. In recent seasons, this is the kind of game I’d be targeting to rest the regulars in the second half so that Trevon Gross Jr. could do his usual Kobe Bryant’s Last Game act. Unfortunately, these aren’t typical times for Virginia basketball.
I’m nervous about this one. Why? Because NC State a.) won their last game (beating Georgia Tech 71–69 in Atlanta), b.) played acceptable defense while doing so (winning both backboards and holding the Jackets to 0.96 points per possession), c.) still has future NBA lottery selection Dennis Smith (he of the 32 points vs. Duke) running the point, and because d.) it feels as though we haven’t made a jump shot since Groundhog Day.
I’d filed this one away as a win as of a month ago, but pretty much any game comes up for grabs when our team can’t make shots, which I’m assuming is true until they show me it isn’t.
If it was ever going to happen for Mark Gottfried, it was supposed to this year. The ‘Pack added a top five recruiting class to serviceable returnees like Terry Henderson, Maverick Rowan, and Abdul-Malik Abu to create what looked on paper to be a contender for the upper echelons of the ACC. An 11–2 start padded by wins over bad teams hid their issues, but the ‘Pack have crumbled since conference play started.
State’s defensive numbers make it feel like this game might be a panacea for our jump shooters. The Wolfpack are, in no order, 15th — or last — in ACC games in defensive efficiency (118.7), 14th in EFG% against (56.4%), 13th in turnover rate (15.3%), 13th in opposing two-point percentage (52.6%), dead last in opposing three-point percentage (42.3%), 12th in defensive rebound percentage (67.4%), 12th in block rate (8.7%), and 10th in steal rate (7.3%), a lot of numbers that add up to really bad. Poor defense has been Mark Gottfried’s MO; the Pack were also dead last in opposing efficiency last year and have finished in the top half of the league in defense just once during his tenure.
State has played mostly man, though they have experimented with a watery zone that hasn’t caught on. During their seven-game slide, opponents hit more than 10 threes per game at a 46.1% clip, all but one made more than half of their twos, and three (so not just UNC, and not UNC three times) rebounded more than half of their own misses. NCSU gives up a lot of shots at the rim — almost 40% of opposing attempts — and opponents make almost 60 (59.7 to be exact) percent of them.
NC State’s offense revolves around freshman Dennis Smith Jr, the lone bright spot from this lost season. Unfortunately for State fans, Chad Ford’s most recent mock draft for ESPN.com has Smith going fifth to the Orlando Magic in June, meaning that that a regular season win over Duke in Cameron is probably going to be the lone bright spot of the Dennis Smith era.
Smith is sixth in the ACC in scoring (18.7 ppg), leads the league in assists (6.4), and is second in steals (2.0 spg). He’s scored at least 25 points five times in league games, has four games of at least 10 assists this season, and uses almost 30% of NC State’s possessions. And he did this:
#NCState (14-7, 3-5 ACC) upsets No. 17 #Duke (15-5, 3-4 ACC) 84-82 behind 32 pts from Dennis Smith Jr. #wral
— Marilyn Payne (@marilyn_payne) January 24, 2017
(*this dunk didn't count) pic.twitter.com/nMlufh8l7E
Smith’s height (a long 6'3'’) and ups make it easy for him to get to the rim and either finish (he hits 67% of his shots around the basket) or draw the foul (he gets hit a lot and takes just more than one free throw for every two shots from the floor). He’s a good enough (35.8% in ACC games) three-point shooter to draw the defense, which is all he needs to head into the lane. Smith’s downsides (such as they are) are a tendency to stagnate the offense with dribbles at the top of the key when a lane isn’t immediately available, and turnovers born from driving into the teeth of waiting defenses (he has 14 in the last three games).
Gottfried has gone up-tempo (71.8 possessions per ACC game via KenPom, the most of any of his NC State squads) to give Smith the freedom to do his highlight-reel thing. Unfortunately, NC State instead has lacked the perimeter shooting (34.6% on 20-plus attempts per game) and ball security (a turnover rate of 19.5%, last in the league) to fashion an elite offense around him, instead scraping by at 1.03 points per possession.
Henderson (14 ppg for the year) has rebounded nicely after missing last season with an injury and has teamed with Rowan (12.3) to join Smith as double figure scorers and provide him with spot-up support (both have more three-point tries than twos this season) on the perimeter, while Abu (11.5) can score from inside to out to around 15. No one else has chipped in consistently, though State gets the occasional odd contribution from UNC-Charlotte transfer Torin Dorn and freshmen Markell Johnson and Omer Yurtsevin (once touted as a possible first rounder).
This State team doesn’t score or defend anyone inside, they don’t make perimeter shots consistently, and they’ve been called out for quitting more than once since the calendar flipped to 2017. We’ve traditionally had success against turnover-prone, up-tempo teams — say, FSU teams of recent vintage — because they struggle to adjust to a deliberate, half court game. If we can make Dennis Smith take a big chunk of his shots deep in the shot clock, I’ll feel like we’re doing something right. NC State’s struggles with turnovers make me hope that we can get something in transition early, since dunks are fun and make players happy, and happy players are more likely to be confident shooting the ball.
If we maintain the signs of life we’ve shown of late on defense (we didn’t defend Carolina terribly and showed pretty well vs. Miami), this one should go well. I’m not anticipating too much of a strategic shift on offense — it’s too late in the season and our guys are far too indoctrinated into blocker/mover to try to reinvent the wheel and none of our bigs are likely to suddenly become consistent threats to score from the blocker spot — but I am hoping that some of the shots that haven’t been dropping actually go in.
I think the kids are the key to better offense. Tony lamented not playing Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy much against Miami on his Monday show with Dave Koehn, and I think he’s on to something. Ty’s ability to get London off the ball reduces the strain on LP a little, and Kyle has shown the ability to get buckets. We’re reaching the point where I don’t care if Kyle is setting screens for opposing guards on D; we haven’t been shooting well and we know he can. He needs chances. Mamadi Diakite — the last kid — showed the ability to turn and face the basket off the catch against Miami, which is more than we’re getting from most of the other bigs. I know he doesn’t screen yet (and Jack very definitely does), but he needs to keep getting heavy minutes.
State likes to go four guards. I don’t love the idea of Isaiah Wilkins chasing Maverick Rowan around screens, so there are going to be some minutes available for the young perimeter players.
Virginia Eights:
G: London Perrantes — 6'2'’ sr #32
London has been such a big part of everything this team has accomplished over the last four seasons that I’d hate for him to go out with a slump and a losing streak serving as asterisks to his fine career. The story shouldn’t end this way. Sometimes it does (think Malcolm’s struggles vs. Syracuse), but it shouldn’t.
G: Devon Hall — 6'5'’ jr. #0
Lost in the ugliness of the Miami game was Devon stepping up and hitting some shots (15 points, 4–8 shooting), even if the resurgence was accompanied by two turnovers and two very costly missed free throws.
F: Marial Shayok — 6'6'’ jr #4
Shayok has scored in double figures twice in six games and has only attempted two free throws total during that span. When he was on in January, he was taking his baseline drives all the way to the rim and took 23 in eight games.
F: Isaiah Wilkins — 6'7'’ jr #21
Wilkins has been on a rebounding tear this month, and is now up to 12.1% on the offensive glass for the season.
F: Jack Salt — 6'11'’ so #33
Jack played 20 minutes in three straight games at the end of January, but hasn’t played more than 19 since Villanova.
G: Darius Thompson — 6'4'’ jr #51
Darius’s three-point shooting against nonconference opponents over two seasons: 26–58 (41.4 percent). Against ACC teams: 9–41 (21.9 percent) He’s on a 1–14 slide since mid-January.
G: Ty Jerome — 6'5'’ fr #11
Zeros against UNC and Miami mean that Ty has gone scoreless in back to back games for the first time since December 31st and January 4th.
F: Mamadi Diakite — 6'9'’ fr #25
Diakite has been a welcome burst of energy and a net positive in five of our last six games.
NC State Eights:
G: Dennis Smith Jr. — 6'3'’ fr #4
Smith does a lot of things that are more fun than this, but it’s really impressive that a freshman on a pretty bad team is 20th in the country (and leading the ACC) in assist rate.
G: Markell Johnson — 6'1'’ fr #11
Has had an up and down (mostly down — he can’t shoot yet and his turnover rate is higher than his assist rate) year, but returned to the rotation two games ago against Notre Dame and put up a combined 17 points, eight assists (to just two turnovers) and seven rebounds in 72 minutes. If he’s turning a corner, it gives NCSU a speedy, versatile backcourt.
F: Terry Henderson — 6'5’’ sr #3
Henderson has been hot enough from three-point range that he can absorb a two game 0–9 stretch and still be hitting 44.7% over NCSU’s last eight games.
F: Maverick Rowan — 6'7'’ so #24
Rowan does almost nothing (3.8% OREB, 9.9% DREB, 6% assist rate) but shoot, but at least he’s pretty good (36.6% on three-pointers) at it.
F: Abdul-Malik Abu — 6'8'’ jr #0
Abu has less competition (or help) on the block than ever before, but yet his rebounding metrics have all taken a plunge this year. Has scored in single digits in three of NCSU’s last four games.
G: Torin Dorn — 6'5'’ so #2
Dorn is shooting and rebounding better at NCSU than he did at UNC-C, though a lot of that was accumulated during NCSU’s UNC-C like out of conference schedule: he’s got an 84.0 ORTG in ACC games and has made one of his last 15 threes.
C: Omer Yurtseven — 7'0'’ fr #14
The second NC State five star, Yurtseven has played just 23 minutes in State’s last three games (including just two in the win over GT).
F: Ted Kapita — 6'8'’ fr #23
Kapita (10.2% OREB, 20.4% DREB, six in 20 minutes vs. GT) might be State’s best rebounder right now.
Verdict:
Our guys can’t be afraid to take good advantage of good looks at the basket. If they play assertive, confident offense, this one should send us back into the victory column. It had better.
