Thursday night report card: the sims went 0-for-3 on winners. Here's the homework.
I grade my own work. Last night the model whiffed — and if you're going to trust a projection, you deserve to see what it got wrong and why.
Seahawks 19.2, Broncos 13.7 ? Broncos won 17-14 in OT. Wrong winner, right process. The sims said Denver's offense was about to get exposed, and they called it to the yard: Bo Nix went 17-of-27 for 107 yards, the Broncos managed 168 total yards and punted on seven straight second-half drives. What 1,000 simulations couldn't see: Sam Darnold throwing it away twice, including the overtime pick that set up the winning field goal. The model diagnosed the patient perfectly and still lost the bet — that's football.
Dodgers 4.9, Brewers 3.9 ? Brewers won 6-4. Sweep complete. Both sim runs had LA surviving at home. Instead the Dodgers' three-peat died at Dodger Stadium and Milwaukee is off to its first World Series since 1982. No excuses, no hedging — the model had this one backwards.
Rangers 3.3, Devils 1.7 ? Devils won 7-1. Not just wrong — reversed into a blowout. The sims liked the Rangers' edge; New Jersey scored four goals in five minutes and turned it into a laugher. Burn the tape.
The one we framed right: Rays-Guardians was called a coin flip, and it was — Guardians 3, Rays 2, Cleveland takes a 2-1 series lead. When the model says coin flip, believe the coin flip.
0-for-3 on winners, and I'm still showing you the math. That's the deal: the projections are honest even when they're wrong, and they're wrong less often than your gut. Run your own sims and tell me where the model is off. I dare you.
1,020 sims. One offense the model refuses to doubt.
Friday night, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN: Memphis at Tulane. The Tigers roll into Yulman Stadium at 5-1, undefeated in American Conference play, with one of the most explosive offenses in the Group of Six. And the MyGameSim projections say this one isn't going to be particularly close.
The projection: Memphis 34.4, Tulane 27.6. Across 1,020 simulations, the Tigers cover with room to spare. That's nearly a full touchdown of separation on the road, in conference, on national TV.
Here's my take: the American runs through Memphis, and it's not a debate anymore
Yes, Tulane beat Memphis 38-32 last year. The model knows. The model doesn't care. Revenge narratives are for highlight reels; 1,020 runs of cold math say Memphis puts up mid-30s on anyone in this league, and Tulane's defense — which has been shaky on third downs all season — is not the unit that's going to stop it.
Memphis has one loss, on the road at Boise State. Since then: demolition jobs. The sims are telling you the Tigers' ceiling is a conference championship, and Friday night is when the rest of the American finds out.
Could Tulane muck it up? Sure — home crowd, Friday night weirdness, that's college football. But when the model keeps spitting out the same number a thousand times over, I stop arguing and start listening.
?? Perry's line: Memphis wins and covers. The Tigers hang 34+ and Tulane spends the fourth quarter chasing the game. Take the points with the road team.
Quick second take: Purdue is the team the Big Ten should fear at night
Washington at Purdue, 8 PM ET on FOX. The sims ran this one 1,020 times too, and the answer came back loud: Purdue 33.6, Washington 26.3.
Think about that. Purdue — at home, on a Friday night, with momentum from back-to-back conference wins — is projected to beat Washington by more than a touchdown. The Huskies have dropped three straight in Big Ten play and the model is not buying a bounce-back in West Lafayette. Seven-plus points of separation is the sims' way of saying: this Purdue team is real, and Washington's slide is too.
One more for the road: the ALCS coin flip nobody should bet against Cleveland on
Game 4 of the ALCS tonight in Cleveland, Guardians up 2-1 on the Rays. MyGameSim ran it 100 times: Cleveland 4.3, Tampa Bay 4.1. Basically a coin flip — but it's a coin flip at home for the team that already holds the series lead.
Tightest projection of the day, highest stakes of the day. If the Guardians take this one, Tampa Bay is staring at elimination math for the rest of the weekend.
And if you're still hungry: Appalachian State 25.8, Coastal Carolina 24.8 — the sims call it a genuine toss-up on ESPN2 tonight. Penguins 3.0 at Avalanche 3.7, 301 runs, Colorado at home. Bruins 3.1, Ducks 2.6 out west.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections — the games haven't been played yet. Run your own sims and tell me where the model is wrong. I dare you.
