Week 7 in College Football has the kind of headliners that swallow up all the attention, and that's exactly when upsets sneak up on people. We ran the big games through GameSim, and a handful of favorites look a lot less safe than the sportsbooks think.
Here's where the sims see trouble brewing this Saturday.
Mississippi State at LSU
LSU is laying 11.5 at home and sits at -440 on the moneyline, with Mississippi State getting +340. That price gives the Bulldogs a little better than a 1 in 5 chance.
The sims laugh at that number. Mississippi State wins 86.9% of our simulations and averages a 39.0 to 24.2 win in Baton Rouge. The Bulldogs are coming off a bye with an offense that keeps putting up points, and the model thinks LSU's defense is in for a long afternoon. This is the biggest gap on the board. Full breakdown: Mississippi State at LSU prediction.
Notre Dame at BYU
Saturday night in Provo, and Notre Dame is a 10.5 point road favorite at -395. BYU is +310 at home in what might be the loudest LaVell Edwards Stadium crowd in years.
GameSim backs the Cougars, and not by a little. BYU wins 87.3% of runs with a projected score of 35.5 to 21.9. Both defenses are stingy against the run, so this one could come down to who makes plays through the air, and the sims keep handing that edge to BYU. If you only open one prediction this week, make it the Notre Dame at BYU prediction.
TCU at Baylor
Baylor is a 5.5 point home favorite at -205, and TCU is +170. That's a market that likes the Bears but isn't sold on a blowout.
Our sims flip it. TCU wins 67.3% of the time, with an average score of 25.7 to 21.2. Rivalry games in this series rarely play to the number anyway, and getting the sim favorite at +170 is hard to pass up. See the TCU at Baylor prediction.
Kentucky at Oklahoma
Oklahoma is laying 7 at home at -265, and Kentucky is +215. After the way Kentucky handled LSU last week, the Wildcats don't look like a team that should be a full touchdown underdog.
The sims agree. This one is a true coin flip, with Oklahoma winning 50.4% of runs and Kentucky 49.6%. The projected score is 22.8 to 22.7 with Kentucky on top. When a game simulates this close and one side is getting +215, that's an upset watch. Full results: Kentucky at Oklahoma prediction.
Virginia at SMU
SMU is coming off a bye and is laying 8.5 at home at -325. Virginia sits at +260.
GameSim has Virginia winning 53.1% of runs, with a projected score of 25.5 to 24.0. The Mustangs have been great at home since joining the ACC, but they haven't always covered, and the model sees a one score game the whole way. Check the Virginia at SMU prediction before kickoff.
UNC at Duke
Duke is a 3.5 point favorite at -170, and UNC is +142. The sims call it dead even: UNC wins 51.2% of runs, and the average score is basically a tie at 23.9 to 23.7. In a rivalry game this tight, plus money on the side the model slightly prefers is worth a look. Details: UNC at Duke prediction.
Quick hitters
- Ohio State at Indiana: Ohio State is laying about a field goal on the road. The sims see a 31.3 to 30.6 nail biter, with Indiana winning 46.2% of runs. That's a touch better than the Hoosiers' plus money price implies.
- Missouri at Ole Miss: Ole Miss is -225, but Missouri wins 45.0% of sims and the projected score is just 32.2 to 30.4. At +185, the Tigers are priced closer to 35%.
- Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech is laying 9.5. Georgia Tech wins 41.5% of runs and loses by under a field goal on average, 31.5 to 28.8.
- Florida at Texas: Texas is the pick, but Florida at +295 wins 38.5% of our simulations. The price implies about 25%.
For every game on the Week 7 slate, check out the full college football predictions board. Detailed projected player stats for all games are available exclusively to GameSim+ subscribers. Learn more and subscribe here.
