I’ve seen a lot of interesting takes on the 2013 Duke Football Schedule and the consensus seems to be that it is going to be a difficult one.
Most are projecting a rough year but some are optimistic that the Blue Devils could still get six wins required to be bowl eligible for the first time school history.
It is hard to believe that Duke who once upon a time a football power, hasn’t made it to consecutive bowls, but back when they were winning with regularity, there were far fewer bowls.
When I look at the schedule and look at Duke’s potential I see the chance to have a better year than just six wins. It won’t be easy but I think the potential is definitely there when you consider the likes of Clemson and Florida State not being on the Blue Devils’ schedule. I’m going to take it a game-by-game look at the schedule and the likelihood that of a Duke victory in each.
North Carolina Central: Duke opens the season against cross-town foe NC Central. The Blue Devils have played the Eagles twice as part of the Bull City Gridiron Classic. Neither game has been particularly classic as Duke has proven to be just too much for NC Central.
This year I would expect much of the same as the game is always played at Wallace Wade and the Blue Devils roster has continued to get better since the first installment of the game back in 2009.
Central should have a good turnout and Duke hasn’t been great in season openers so it could be closer than you might expect. Duke fans may trickle in but the novelty of the game has worn off a bit. I still expect Duke to win in the end with relative ease.
Probability of Victory: Very High
Memphis- If this were basketball this would be a high draw nationally, but it isn’t and Memphis is as bad, or at least has been as bad, as any program at the FBS level. Duke knows how bad that is because up until recently they were that program.
Duke handled Memphis at home last year but must travel on the road to take on the Tigers this year. If the Blue Devils have come as far as many believe they have, they need to beat Memphis and beat them badly on their own turf. They can’t afford in any way shape or form lose this game. The support at Memphis isn’t great so Duke shouldn’t be challenged by a raucous crowd.
They will be challenged to avoid being over confident because they have not yet reached the point where they can simply walk on the field a win, especially with so many unproven players in key roles. Still I think Duke can and should win this game.
Probability of winning: Very High
Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jacket have never been a team that Duke has had a great deal of success with. Since Paul Johnson became Georgia Tech’s coach, the Blue Devils have never beaten them. Duke has continued to struggle with Johnson’s version of the triple option and with the Yellow Jackets expected to be better than last year one has to expect those challenges to continue this season.
‘The Blue Devils will have the advantage of playing at home and at that point should be 2-0 which may draw a pro-Duke crowd. If Duke can get a lead and keep the defense off the field for large chunks of time then this would play into the Blue Devils’ favor.
Still it will take a lot of improvement from the Blue Devil’s run defense and the game’s most redeeming feature may end up being the triple option prep they will get for their game with Navy a few weeks later.
Probability of winning: Mid to low
Pitt- Duke’s first game against newest ACC member, Pitt is perhaps one of the more intriguing games on the schedule. The Panthers struggled last season and early projections have them ranked below the Blue Devils in the Coastal Division.
I don’t believe Duke though is heads and tails better than Pitt and the game really in my eyes is a push and should really be a very close contest between two programs that, as of right now, are in about the same place. I think this is a game Duke could win and if they are go get to a bowl this is a game they are going to have to win, especially at home.
Probability of winning: 50/50
Troy- This was a last minute addition to the Blue Devils’ 2013 schedule and many look at Troy as a pushover but this is a team that beat Navy last year and like Duke beat Florida International. They only won 5 games but could provide the Blue Devils with a challenge.
This is not as easy as it may seem and as I’ve already said, Duke hasn’t reached the point where they can show up and just win. They will have to play hard, but Troy is a game they must win and I think the coaching staff and the players know that.
Probability of winning: High
Navy- This has a game that has many Duke fans nervous and for good reason. It is a game Duke could win but it is also one of those games against one of those teams that you never know what might happen. Like Georgia Tech, the Midshipmen run a triple option offense that Duke has struggled with in the past.
The two teams have had some high scoring affairs and this year could be a return to that. Unlike those games though, Duke has possibility moved past Navy as a program but now have to prove it on the field. This is another game that the Blue Devils will have to win to keep their bowl hopes alive but like Georgia Tech, they will have to get a lead and keep Navy at a distance to come out on top.
Probability of winning: Mid to High
Virginia- The Cavaliers are a team that, under Duke coach David Cutcliffe, the Blue Devils have handled better than any other team in the ACC. Duke has only lost to Virginia one time sine Cutcliffe took over. The bad news for the Blue Devils is that that one time was on the road and that is where Duke meets the Cavaliers this season.
Virginia struggled last season but they are a proud program who aren’t very keen on having lost to Duke so frequently in football. They will be highly motivated to beat the Blue Devils as the two programs have developed a bit of bad blood over recent years. Just two seasons ago Cutcliffe exchanged to heated words with Virginia head coach Mike London and this game has become one of those grudge matches.
The Cavaliers should be better, but are in some eyes, still projected to finish beneath Duke in the standings. I’m expecting a close contest that could go either way. It is a game, that by appearances, Duke can win but it will be a battle.
Probability of winning: 50/50
Virginia Tech- Since coming to the ACC, the Blue Devils have never beaten the Hokies and save for a few years ago when Duke kept things close for one half, most of the games have been ugly, lopsided losses.
Last season though riding high, Duke went into Blacksburg and took a 20 point lead in the half. Then everything fell apart on the Blue Devils who lost going away 41-20 not scoring in the second half. The first quarter in particular showed Duke was capable of knocking the Hokies back but they had no killer instinct.
Because of the new additions to the ACC Duke has to travel back to Blacksburg for the second straight year and while they may have learned a lesson last season, I’m not expecting much in the line of shocking upsets with an expectedly improved Virginia Tech squad.
Probability of winning: Low
NC State-The new area of ACC expansion has made this one time rivalry into a rare meeting. Duke hasn’t played the Wolfpack since 2009, a surprisingly convincing victory. The Wolfpack have a new coach, and uncertainty in their lineup and yet the perpetual confidence in that fan base has rubbed off on the media who are projecting big things from a team with a new coach.
And while Duke has some lineup uncertainty as well, they have been steadily improving while NC State has seemingly underachieved year after year. Still no one really sees this game as one that the Blue Devils can win, even played at home.
I don’t believe that is the case and I think this is not only a game that the Blue Devils can win I think it i one they will win.
Probability of winning: Mid to high
Miami- Duke has had its opportunities to kick the Hurricanes while they have been down, and they have been down for a bit now, but that time appears to have come and gone.
With the Hurricanes seemingly closer to dodging the NCAA bullet, they have quietly been rebuilding their football powerhouse and have amassed some exceptional talent like running back Duke Johnson. The Blue Devils will have another shot a Miami at home for the second straight year but I’m not hopeful Duke’s improvement has kept up with Miami.
Probability of winning: Low
Wake Forest- For the first time in a dozen years the Blue Devils ended a game with Wake Forest with a victory and it helped springboard them to a bowl berth. The two have always had classic battles but no matter how hard the Blue Devils tried, they couldn’t get over on the Demon Deacons.
This season Wake is expected to be better and will have the Blue Devil back at home again where they most assuredly be looking at some payback for last year’s loss. The Deacons have been the model of how a small school not famous for football success can achieve it.
They’ve been a model for a program like Duke, but the Demon Deacons aren’t anxious to have the copies being better than the original. As always this should be a close game and could go either way.
Probability of winning: 50/50
North Carolina-It maybe that no program in the country is expected to do so much but accomplishes so little than North Carolina’s football team. Granted they did end the 2012 season with the best record in the ACC Coastal Division, but NCAA troubles forced them to not accept the Coastal title, though they still claim it.
Still the Tar Heels seemingly underachieve every year. The one thing you could count on was them beating Duke, something they’d done all but one season since 1989. North Carolina has had the superior talent and had it last year but for the first time since 2003, Duke came out on top.
Rest assured the Tar Heels didn’t take to kindly to Duke marching across the field and reclaiming the Victory Bell and doing it in grand fashion on a last minute drive that helped seal the deal. Once again North Carolina has the superior talent. They have the faith of the media who once again expect great things from them. But Duke has confidence now that they can beat North Carolina and the aren’t eager to give the bell back after just one year.
It will be a battle and one that Duke can win, despite all the experts who say the opposite, but with the game at the end of the season, will Duke still be confident and healthy enough to win? Last year’s success restored a bit of a punch to a one sided dying rivalry. This year could prove whether it was a temporary set back or a sign the pendulum may be swinging.
Probability of winning: Mid to Low
With many expecting Duke to possibly have a drop off from last year due to the loss of so many key players, the schedule at least to me makes it seem like a bowl berth is more probable than not.
In a best case scenario I can see Duke winning up to 8 games, something that couldn’t have been said last year or really any other year in recent memory. A lot will have to go right but I think the schedule is set up where the worst Duke should finish is 6-6 which is still good enough for a bowl.
Follow us on Twitter @DukeBlogMKline and visit our Facebook page-Duke Sports Blog. Got question? E-mail us at dukesportsblogmkline@gmail.com
