The AFC East spent five years looking like Josh Allen’s personal property. New England ended that in 2025: 14-3 in the regular season, 5-1 in the division, Super Bowl runners-up, and the team that finally knocked Buffalo off the top step. The Bills still went 12-5 and ranked fifth nationally on our efficiency board. Miami went 7-10. The Jets went 3-14 and ranked last in the NFL at thirty-second, allowing 29.6 points per game. ESPN’s AFC East roundtable frames 2026-27 as a two-team fight at the top, with Buffalo as the odds-on division favorite and New England trying to defend the title it stole.
This is part of GameSim’s 2026-27 NFL division preview series. Already posted:
- NFC East: Simulations Back Philadelphia as Clear Division Favorite
- NFC North: Simulations Back Detroit as Clear Division Favorite
- NFC South: Simulations Split Tampa Bay and Atlanta
- NFC West: Simulations Split the Rams and Seahawks
VSiN’s division preview calls it a heavyweight rematch: Buffalo at -125 to win the division, New England at +120, with Miami and New York in rebuild mode. Drake Maye and Josh Allen are both MVP-tier names on the board. Our 2026-27 division sims agree on the top two. They disagree with the betting line on the head-to-head games. New England wins 14 of 25 (56 percent) at Buffalo in Week 4 and 19 of 25 (76 percent) at home against the Bills in Week 13. Buffalo still wins 18 of 25 (72 percent) against Miami at home and 23 of 25 (92 percent) against the Jets at home in Week 18. This is a two-team race with a clear bottom and a messy middle.
What 2025 actually looked like
New England went 14-3 and 5-1 in the AFC East. Buffalo went 12-5 and 4-2. Miami went 7-10 and 3-3 inside the division. The Jets went 3-14 and 0-6. The Patriots ranked third nationally on point differential at 28.8 scored and 18.8 allowed. The Bills ranked fifth at 28.3 and 21.5. Miami ranked twenty-fourth with a negative profile. The Jets ranked last in the NFL at thirty-second, scoring 17.6 points per game and allowing 29.6.
| Team | Record | AFC East | GameSim rank | Adj. offense (PPG) | Adj. defense (PAPG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 14-3 | 5-1 | 3 | 28.8 | 18.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 12-5 | 4-2 | 5 | 28.3 | 21.5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7-10 | 3-3 | 24 | 20.4 | 24.9 |
| New York Jets | 3-14 | 0-6 | 32 | 17.6 | 29.6 |
Read the table the way the engine does. New England finished ahead of Buffalo on efficiency even though both teams scored at roughly the same clip. The difference was defense: 18.8 allowed for the Patriots versus 21.5 for the Bills. Miami and New York are not in the same tier on the computer. VSiN and ESPN both treat this as a Bills-Patriots fight with two teams rebuilding below. The 2025 GameSim baseline agrees on the pecking order.
The 2026-27 setup: Maye and Brown, Allen and a new stadium, Willis and Smith below
Live 2026-27 team rankings are not posted yet, so the 2025 computer is the baseline and the 2027 projected roster file is what the simulator uses until enough real games exist. VSiN and ESPN both orbit the same storylines: A.J. Brown in New England, Joe Brady’s first year calling plays for Josh Allen in Buffalo’s new stadium, Malik Willis in Miami, and Geno Smith in New York.
Projected pass leaders for 2026-27 in the division:
- Drake Maye (New England): 4,061 yards, 28 TDs, 10 INTs
- Josh Allen (Buffalo): 3,814 yards, 27 TDs, 11 INTs
- Geno Smith (New York): 3,455 yards, 22 TDs, 14 INTs
- Malik Willis (Miami): 3,400 yards, 18 TDs, 12 INTs
Projected rush leaders:
- James Cook III (Buffalo): 1,402 yards, 10 TDs
- De'Von Achane (Miami): 1,252 yards, 6 TDs
- Breece Hall (New York): 1,158 yards, 6 TDs
- TreVeyon Henderson (New England): 886 yards, 7 TDs
Projected receiving headliners: A.J. Brown (1,233 yards), Garrett Wilson (1,106), DJ Moore (897), Theo Wease Jr. (685). Maye’s yardage projection leads the division. Cook’s rushing volume leads everyone. Brown is the offseason flashpoint the external previews keep circling. Wilson keeps the Jets’ passing tree viable even when the 2025 efficiency sheet says otherwise.
The title contenders
New England Patriots: the defending division champ the sims trust in head-to-head games
New England finished third nationally, won the division at 5-1, and projects 4,061 yards and 28 touchdowns from Maye with Brown at 1,233 receiving yards. VSiN’s +120 line treats the Patriots as the challenger. Our 2026-27 sims treat them like the team to beat when the slate turns inward: 14 of 25 (56 percent) at Buffalo in Week 4, 19 of 25 (76 percent) at home against the Bills in Week 13, 22 of 25 (88 percent) at home against Miami in Week 18. New England is not a clear division lock on the betting board. It is the team our computer picks in both Buffalo games.
Buffalo Bills: the betting favorite who still has to win in Foxborough
Buffalo went 12-5, ranked fifth nationally, and projects 3,814 yards from Allen with Cook at 1,402 rushing yards. ESPN’s roundtable and VSiN’s -125 line both install the Bills as division favorites, with Allen as the tiebreaker argument every time. Our sims add the caveat: Buffalo is not winning the head-to-head slate by default. The Bills lose 14 of 25 (56 percent) at home to New England in Week 4 and 19 of 25 (76 percent) at Foxborough in Week 13. They beat Miami 18 of 25 (72 percent) at home in Week 11 and crush the Jets 23 of 25 (92 percent) at home in Week 18. Allen gives Buffalo a path every week. The division still runs through the Patriots on our board.
Miami Dolphins: rebuild mode with a home-field pulse
Miami went 7-10, ranked twenty-fourth nationally, and projects 3,400 yards from Willis with Achane at 1,252 rushing yards. VSiN and ESPN both treat the Dolphins as a team playing for 2027 draft position more than 2026 division titles. Our sims give Miami a home upset path anyway: 14 of 25 (56 percent) against New England in Week 8, 18 of 25 (72 percent) against the Jets at home in Week 12, and 15 of 25 (60 percent) against Buffalo at home in Week 17. Miami is not winning the division on efficiency. It can still complicate Buffalo’s December.
New York Jets: last on the board, weirdly loud at home in the sims
New York went 3-14, 0-6 in the division, and ranked thirty-second nationally with a 29.6 points-allowed number that is almost impossible to defend in prose. Smith’s 3,455-yard projection and Wilson’s 1,106 receiving yards are the counterargument on the roster file. VSiN and ESPN both note the defensive overhaul and Glenn’s hot seat. Our sims produce some surprising home leans: 22 of 25 (88 percent) against Miami in Week 7 and 20 of 25 (80 percent) against New England in Week 16. Treat those as directional reads on a small sample, not a prediction that the Jets win the division. They are still the basement team on the 2025 computer.
The games that will decide the division
Featured division games are 25 simulations with 2027 projected rosters and home-field advantage. Treat the percentages as a directional read. Open the prediction page or rerun at 100 simulations for a tighter number.
Oct. 4: New England at Buffalo (Week 4)
Twenty-five simulations have New England 29.0-28.3, winning 14 of 25 (56 percent) on the road. The first head-to-head lean on the board. Allen at the new stadium against Maye and Brown is the game the external previews treat as the division pivot. Our board gives the edge to the defending champ on the road.
Oct. 18: New York at New England (Week 6)
Twenty-five simulations have New England 29.5-21.4, winning 18 of 25 (72 percent) at home. Maye at Foxborough against Smith is one of the spots where our board gives the Patriots a clear home favorite number against the division’s weakest 2025 team.
Oct. 25: Miami at New York (Week 7)
Twenty-five simulations have the Jets 30.9-21.6, winning 22 of 25 (88 percent) at home. The loudest surprise on the slate. Open the simulator and rerun at 100 sims if you want to stress-test this one before trusting it.
Nov. 1: New England at Miami (Week 8)
Twenty-five simulations have Miami 27.4-26.8, winning 14 of 25 (56 percent) at home. A narrow home lean in a potential upset spot. Willis and Achane at Hard Rock against Maye on the road.
Nov. 15: Buffalo at New York (Week 10)
Twenty-five simulations have Buffalo 30.2-26.7, winning 18 of 25 (72 percent) on the road. Allen on the road against the team that ranked last nationally on defense last year. Our board likes the Bills comfortably.
Nov. 22: Miami at Buffalo (Week 11)
Twenty-five simulations have Buffalo 29.5-23.5, winning 18 of 25 (72 percent) at home. Cook and Allen at home against Willis is one of the few spots where our board gives Buffalo a clear favorite number that matches the betting narrative.
Nov. 29: New York at Miami (Week 12)
Twenty-five simulations have Miami 30.4-21.5, winning 18 of 25 (72 percent) at home. A strong home lean for the Dolphins in the battle for third place and draft positioning.
Dec. 6: Buffalo at New England (Week 13)
Twenty-five simulations have New England 31.8-24.0, winning 19 of 25 (76 percent) at home. The division’s pivot game. If Buffalo is going to win the East on our board, it probably needs to steal one of these Foxborough spots. Our sims say no in Week 13.
Dec. 27: New England at New York (Week 16)
Twenty-five simulations have the Jets 33.4-27.8, winning 20 of 25 (80 percent) at home. Another high-percentage home lean for a team that went 3-14 last year. Worth rerunning in the simulator if you want a second opinion before the season starts.
Jan. 3: Buffalo at Miami (Week 17)
Twenty-five simulations have Buffalo 30.8-28.0, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) on the road. A moderate road lean in a potential seeding game. Miami’s home sample against Buffalo is one reason the Bills’ path is not clean even if they handle the Jets.
Jan. 10: New York at Buffalo (Week 18)
Twenty-five simulations have Buffalo 35.5-21.4, winning 23 of 25 (92 percent) at home. The most lopsided number on the slate. Allen at home against the team that ranked last in the NFL on our 2025 board.
Jan. 10: Miami at New England (Week 18)
Twenty-five simulations have New England 33.1-23.2, winning 22 of 25 (88 percent) at home. Maye at Foxborough to close the regular season against Willis. Our board likes the Patriots to finish strong at home.
How to use GameSim on this season
Start with the NFL teams directory, then use each team page for predictions and ratings. The rankings will fill in once the season has enough games. For any Sunday, the predictions board updates as we run the slate.
To test Allen versus Maye in Buffalo and Foxborough, Willis versus Achane at home, or the Jets’ home slate against Miami and New England, open the NFL game simulator and set both years to 2027.
Try the 2026-27 season yourself. Any registered MyGameSim user can simulate NFL matchups now. Free accounts get up to 3 current-season sims per day. Register free or log in. GameSim+ subscribers get unlimited simulations.
Detailed projected player stats stay behind GameSim+. Developers can hit the same engine through the GameSim API.
Our working read: New England is the defending division champion on the 2025 computer and the team our sims pick in both Bills games. Buffalo is the betting favorite with the division’s best projected rushing offense and the clearest path against Miami and New York. Miami and the Jets are rebuilding on the efficiency sheet, but Miami wins 60 percent of a home sample against Buffalo and the Jets produce some noisy home numbers in small-batch sims. In a division the previews call a two-team race, the computer agrees on the top two and disagrees with the betting line on who wins when they meet.
