Ten of the twelve MLB playoff spots are set. The last two get decided this afternoon, and both races end with every game starting within five minutes of each other. So get your second screen ready.
As Jeff Passan laid out Sunday morning, the American League West and the final National League wild card are still up for grabs. Here's what every team needs, what happens in each scenario, and what's waiting on Tuesday.
The AL West: Somebody Has to Win It
Houston and Texas go into the final day tied at 80-81. One of them will win the division, and when that happens they'll have the worst full-season record of any playoff team in MLB history. The 2005 Padres won the NL West at 82-80 and people still bring it up. This year's AL West champ is going to finish at .500 or worse.
Still, a playoff spot is a playoff spot, and nobody in Houston or Arlington is going to apologize for it.
The Astros control their own destiny because they own the tiebreaker. That makes the math simple:
- Astros win: Houston wins the division at 81-81. Texas's result doesn't matter.
- Astros lose, Rangers lose: Houston still wins the division, at 80-82, on the tiebreaker.
- Astros lose, Rangers win: Texas takes the division at 81-81.
So there's exactly one way for the Rangers to get in. They need to win, and they need Houston to lose.
The Games
Houston at Sacramento, 3:05 p.m. ET. The Astros haven't named a starter. The Athletics are going with Brady Basso. That's a weird spot for a team playing for its season, and it tells you something about how thin Houston's rotation is after 161 games. Expect a lot of bullpen and a very short leash for whoever gets the ball.
Texas at Minnesota, 3:10 p.m. ET. The Rangers send MacKenzie Gore to the mound against Dean Kremer. Texas at least knows who's pitching, and Gore gives them a real chance to hold up their end. The problem is they'll be looking at the Sacramento score all afternoon, and they can't do anything about it.
The winner is the No. 3 seed and hosts the sixth-seeded Chicago White Sox in a best-of-three wild card series starting Tuesday.
The Last NL Wild Card: Phillies or Diamondbacks
Over in the National League, Philadelphia leads Arizona by one game for the final wild card. Arizona owns the tiebreaker, though, so the one-game lead isn't as safe as it sounds.
- Phillies win: Philadelphia is in.
- Phillies lose, Diamondbacks lose: Philadelphia is in.
- Phillies lose, Diamondbacks win: Arizona is in on the tiebreaker.
That's the same setup as the AL West. The team in front needs one thing to go right. The team chasing needs two.
The Games
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia, 3:05 p.m. ET. The Phillies have the right guy on the mound. Zack Wheeler starts against All-Star Nick Martinez. If you're a Phillies fan, Wheeler at home with the season on the line is about as good as it gets. It won't be easy, though. Tampa Bay has the best record in the American League and already has the AL's top seed locked up. The Rays have nothing to play for, and that can go either way. Some teams rest everybody. Others play loose and dangerous.
San Diego at Arizona, 3:10 p.m. ET. Michael Soroka starts for the Diamondbacks. The Padres haven't named a starter. San Diego is already the top NL wild card, so like Tampa Bay, they don't have much riding on this one. Arizona has to win this game and then go find a TV showing the Phillies.
Whoever gets the spot heads to Atlanta to play the third-seeded Braves in the wild card round.
The Current Playoff Picture
American League
First-round byes: Tampa Bay (1), Cleveland (2)
Wild card series (starting Tuesday):
- Chicago White Sox (6) at Houston/Texas (3)
- Boston (5) at New York Yankees (4)
National League
First-round byes: Milwaukee (1), Los Angeles Dodgers (2)
Wild card series (starting Tuesday):
- Philadelphia/Arizona (6) at Atlanta (3)
- Chicago Cubs (5) at San Diego (4)
What to Watch
The fun part of today is that nobody gets to wait for anyone else. All four games that matter start between 3:05 and 3:10 Eastern. Nobody takes the field already knowing whether they're in. The Rangers and Diamondbacks both need help, and both will be looking up at the out-of-town scoreboard between pitches.
My gut says the favorites hold on. Wheeler at home is hard to bet against, and Houston only needs to avoid one specific bad result. But the last day of the season has made fools out of plenty of people who thought they had it figured out, and a pitching matchup with "TBD" on one side is exactly the kind of thing that blows up.
Whatever happens, one of these AL West teams is about to host a playoff series with a record that would have them picking in the top half of next summer's draft. Baseball is great.
Want to see how these matchups play out before first pitch? Run them yourself on MyGameSim and check back Tuesday when the wild card round gets going.
