Game Preview: Virginia vs Louisville - SCACCHoops.com

Game Preview: Virginia vs Louisville

by UniversityBall.org

Posted: 12/28/2016 2:01:30 PM


I said that I was bored of Virginia blowing out bad teams after the Robert Morris game, but the college basketball calendar moves quickly and doesn’t let one stay bored for long. The Cal game was a fun test, and now things get real with conference play kicking off with a road game against sixth-ranked Louisville (#8 KenPom) and a home game with 20th-ranked FSU (#28) crammed into the final four days of 2016. Let’s hope the remainder of this year has a little goodness left in its sour, unforgiving heart.

We’ve won three of our four meetings with Louisville since they joined the ACC in 2015. That first season saw us split (a win where we effectively lost Justin Anderson for the season and a last second loss in the Yum! Center) and we blew the Cardinals out twice (including the unforgettable Mike Tobey Senior Day) last year. While UL has goaded us into turnover rates north of 22% in three of the four meetings, we’ve compensated by beating the press for easy looks in all three of those games. We’ve only been held under a point per possession once by Louisville, and that was in a win (thanks to just turning it over just twice).

The 2016 Cardinals are a very, very interesting matchup for us. They’re loaded with tall, versatile talent and while we have some players that are tall, they could all be described as works in progress. Louisville starts 6'9'’ Jaylen Johnson and 6'10'’ Mangok Mathiang (remember him?) and brings 6'10'’ jack of all trades Ray Spalding and seven footer Anas Mahmoud off the bench. That length has them gobbling offensive boards (39.6%, 10th nationally), blocking shots (an incredible 18.6%, 2nd), and just generally contesting two point shots (opponents are shooting 40.5%) at an elite level. With Louisville’s bigs top of mind, our coaching staff is confronted with a big question: do we attempt to slow their size with some less athletic and dynamic size of our own, or do we answer a mismatch with a mismatch by featuring more of the four guard approach (Perrantes/Hall/Guy/Thompson-or-Shayok/a big) that both worked against Cal, would add a superior ball handler to the mix against the press, and would force one of Johnson and Mathiang to defend a live ball handler on the perimeter. I expect to see us start the usual five, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a four guard lineup get an early look if and when we start finding it difficult to score.

Rick Pitino’s trademark full court matchup press keys everything that they do, but if it doesn’t work, their impenetrable morass of half court looks (zones disguised as man, traps, different defenses on different possessions) is almost worse. The result of all of this chaos and confusion is often a turnover (22.3% of the time this season), and transition looks off of those turnovers are the lifeblood of Louisville’s otherwise-moribund offense. 27.9% of their shot attempts this season have come in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and their 52.9 EFG% in transition is more than five percent better than they shoot in seconds 11–30.

Louisville is scoring 78 points per game, but like us, has yet to see anyone step up as the guy that can manufacture offense in a pinch. Six players average between six and 12 points per game, led by guards Quentin Snider (11.9 ppg) and Donovan Mitchell (11.8), neither of whom are exactly paragons of efficiency (42.9 and 43.9 EFG%s, respectively). Snider is coming off of 22 points, six rebounds, and five assists against Kentucky and a resulting National Player of the Week award, so he’s got some heat coming in. Deng Adel — their third starting wing — is Louisville’s third double figure scorer at 10.4, but has been even less efficient (36.8% from the floor, 31.7% on threes) than the other two. The starting bigs work well in tandem: Johnson takes 70% of his shots around the rim and makes 80% of them (many via offensive board) while Matiang is comfortable operating at the elbow or just not operating at all (he’s scoreless on a combined five shots in UL’s last two games). The two have combined for 26 putbacks this season. Three point shooting is again a Louisville Achilles Heel: the two players who have been credible threats from distance this season (freshman F V.J. King and senior guard David Levitch) combined for just 15 minutes and no attempts against Kentucky and are on the outskirts of the rotation. The rest of the team has combined to barely crack 30%, which is bad.

This is a winnable game. That doesn’t mean that I think we will win, it means that it’s not outlandish to think it could happen. If we can take care of the ball (we’re turning it over on 15% of our possessions, they’re forcing them on 22.3%), make the Cardinals labor in the half court (they average 70.5 possessions per game, we’re at 58.5) and not give up a ridiculous offensive rebound rate (35–40% would be bad, 25–35% would be OK by me given the circumstances), then all we’ll need to do is either find a reliable source of offense or get steady contributions from a wide slate of guys (this especially means you, Marial but also you, Darius) against a sound and athletic defensive team. Easy, right? I’d like to nominate Kyle Guy for that steady source of offense, if only because I’m not sure I can handle the whiplash from our fan base pumping the brakes so soon after anointing him post-Cal. We’ve done a fantastic job defending Louisville’s ball screen actions at the top of the key over the last two seasons, a trend that hopefully continues without Malcolm’s wingspan and know-how in our starting backcourt.

Virginia
G: London Perrantes — 6'2'’ sr #32 

London’s first five minutes vs. Cal were proof that he can grab it and go get buckets — from midrange, from three, around the rim — when we need him to. Now, to figure out how to make him access that more frequently.
G: Devon Hall — 6'5'’ jr. #0
Devon could get new life from getting heavy minutes as a smallball four. Rebounded his position and defended Ivan Rabb in his cameo there last week. 
G: Darius Thompson — 6'4'’ jr #51
Darius always does positive things — witness his five assists vs. Cal — and is much improved on defense this year, but we really can’t afford to have him take another New Year’s nosedive on offense. He’s scored in double figures just once in our last five games and has posted an offensive rating under 100 in all five. We need better O from DT. 
F: Isaiah Wilkins — 6'7'’ jr #21
I’d be happier with what Isaiah gives us if he were the third big a la Ray Spalding. I’m waiting on him to give us consistency — stats, effort, even mood — from game to game. 
F: Jack Salt — 6'11'’ so #33
Jack played pretty well (five points, five boards) in his 16 minute stint in front of his family at Cal.
G: Kyle Guy — 6'3'’ fr #5
Dear Kyle: please continue what you started at Cal. We need to believe. He’s now gone for double digits in three straight and has hit eight of 14 threes over that span. 
G: Marial Shayok — 6'6'’ jr #4
Marial is slumping hard. He’s at his best when he makes one move and one to two dribbles and goes up, either for a layup or midrange jump shot. Now, it feels like he’s taken the “guy that can create offense” tag to heart and is taking longer to find his shot, resulting in lower quality, more contested looks. He’s shooting 1–12 over our last two games and 16–53 (30.1%) over our last seven.
F: Mamadi Diakite— 6'9'’ fr #25
I am still marveling at the ballsiness and sheer confidence in his ability that it took for Mamadi to uncork two deep jumpers in the closing minutes of a tight game. He’s blocked six shots in 46 minutes over our last three games.

UL
G: Quentin Snider — 6'2'’ jr #4

Snider is quick, but rarely gets all the way to the rim — he’s taken just 15.7% of his shots there. He prefers to pull up shy of the basket or, better yet for Louisville opponents, fire a three. 
G: Donovan Mitchell — 6'3'’ so #45
The Kentucky game was Mitchell’s first without a steal this season (he had seven against ODU). He’s scored in double figures in three straight (good), but has shot 11–35 to get there (bad). 
F: Deng Adel — 6'7'’ so #22
Coming off the best game (18 points, 5–10 shooting, six boards, two assists) of his season so far against Louisville’s best opponent. 
F: Jaylen Johnson — 6'9'’ jr #10
He’s grabbing a jawdropping 18.1% of offensive rebound chances. Combine that with an 80% shooting mark around the rim and he’s trouble. Has grabbed multiple OREBs in 10 of Louisville’s 12 games. He’s also trouble on D (18.9% DREB, 5.8 BLK %), though the block stats have been padded by one big game. 
F: Mangok Mathiang — 6'10'’ sr #12
Offensive afterthought screens and gets boards (13.8%), but is an elite shot blocker (7% of chances) and very good defensive rebounder (20.8%). 
F: Ray Spalding — 6'10'’ so #13
Comes off the bench like a house a’fire: his offensive rating (124.6) leads the team thanks to a 68.6% shooting mark. On D, he blocks 6.8% of opposing shots and has grabbed 19.1% of defensive boards. Fouls (6.5 called per 40) are his weakness. 
C: Anas Mahmoud — 7'0'’ jr #14
Shot blocking machine (14.9%, games of five and six blocks) kept in relative obscurity by his status as fourth big. 
G: V.J. King — 6'6'’ fr #0
Five star freshman played just three minutes against Kentucky as Pitino went with more experience. Is 4–18 from the floor against Pomeroy’s tiers A&B so far.

Verdict:
I hate predicting losses. The last three seasons have made it a pill that I don’t have to swallow very often, but I’m not afraid to pull the trigger here and there. I think we find scoring just a little too difficult against a team with a lot of athletic bigs and an aggressive defense run by a schemer in Rick Pitino that has pieces he really likes. I think that we lose a low scoring game by one or two possessions (say, 59–55) which would be the first time we open ACC play with a loss since 2008 if it comes to pass.

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