Let's take a look at Virginia's next opponent, Iowa.
It’s hard to get much of a read on Iowa from their schedule so far, which is a funny thing to say because that’s something that they’re saying about us, too (which is fair because even Yale, touted by some as a test for us, was missing their two best players). The Hawkeyes have handily beaten three teams ranked below 300 by Ken Pomeroy (which is what you’re supposed to do) and lost to Seton Hall at home after allowing the Pirates to hang 49 points on them in the second half.
Iowa’s 2016 ended with an NCAA Tournament bid and a no-shame second round loss to eventual champion Villanova. This is a different group, as they’re trying to replace four senior starters from that team and five of their six leading scorers and integrate a seven man freshman class highlighted by 6'9'’ four star Tyler Cook.
The player bridging the gap between last year’s success and their young, athletic future is 6'6'’ senior and current B1G Player of the Week Peter Jok. Jok scored 16.1 points per game last year (second to the departed Jarrod Uthoff), taking just about half (199 of 397) of his shots from deep and hitting them at a high (40.2%) rate. This year has been the same, only more of it: Jok is scoring 24.3 per game, and so far has taken exactly half of his shots (34 of 68) from behind the arc. The big uptick in his game has come from the midrange, where he’s shooting 63%. He’s using a very large number of Iowa’s possessions (28.1%), shooting often (38.6% of possessions used, 11th in the country) and taking on those responsibilities without turning the ball over (just 9.7%).
Jok’s wingman is the freshman Cook, who had a 24-point coming out party against Seton Hall and has scored in double figures in three straight games. Cook can do it inside (he’s shooting 82% at the rim) and has a burgeoning perimeter game (he’s 1–5 on three-point attempts). More concerning are his big man bona fides: he has just five total rebounds and no blocks in 56 minutes over Iowa’s last two games. After Cook is parity: thanks to the blowouts, nine Hawkeyes are scoring between five and 9.3 points per game.
The mass exodus of experience has spurred Fran McCafferey to push Iowa’s already frenetic tempo up to 11 (they’ve moved from 69.3 possessions per to 76.3) to take advantage of the chaos created by the influx of young, athletic depth. Like most of McCafferey’s Iowa teams, this one wants to force turnovers via the 1–2–2 press and get out on the break for either an easy one at the rim or a pair of free throws. This group is doing that, but they also like the three pointer more than Iowa teams usually do. Threes have become an important part of the Hawkeye offensive repertoire: 42% of their shots (58th in the country) and more than a third (34.8%) of their points. They’ve only got one rotation guy that hasn’t hit one. Their team is heading toward positionless ball: nine of their 13 players to merit KenPom entries sit between 6'4'’ and 6'8.’’
If they’re reduced to their half court sets, the Hawkeyes like to run endless arrays of screens, including a nifty set that sees Tyler Cook setting a down screen for Jok that either frees him for a jumper or isolates Cook on a smaller player. They run repeated ball screens up top to free a guard on the wing and love sending someone like sophomore Brady Ellingson (7–11 on threes, 160.3 ORTG) through a maze of baseline screens for a corner three.
Defense is probably going to be an issue for this Iowa team all year. They bring the 1–2–2 press as McCaffrey teams are wont to do, but while it has worked against the three bad teams they beat (who all turned it over on more than a quarter of possessions), Seton Hall’s guards carved them up (71 points from three prominent Pirate wing players) and only turned it over 14.6% of the time. Seton Hall scored 50 points in the lane, and did so with only 11 assists and nine offensive boards. What does that mean, you ask? It means that Seton Hall players were sauntering to the rim unopposed.
Here’s why I like our chances:
- We’ve got good, experienced guards. A starting group of London Perrantes, Darius Thompson, and Devon Hall is going to be difficult to trap for just about anybody, as all three of those guys can be point guards in a pinch. Isaiah Wilkins also makes very intelligent decisions with the basketball as a potential safety valve against traps.
- We’ve got a very good record under Tony Bennett against the UNC/Iowa State/VCU/WVU type of team whose main source of offense is running out for easy baskets.
So what do we need to do?
We need to be mature on offense. Maturity means taking easy looks when they’re there, but not getting so caught up in the pursuit of easy baskets that players stray from their roles and we find ourselves out of sorts for long stretches (see: Syracuse last spring).
We need to hinder Jok. This will mostly be a team assignment, but I expect Devon Hall and Marial Shayok to primarily match up with him. Cook is an interesting matchup, too — he’s beefier than Isaiah or Mamadi at a listed 253 pounds, but he’s too quick for the likes of Jack Salt or Jarred Reuter. Post doubles will help, but we don’t really have a great individual defender for him.
We need to contest threes. Last year’s meeting with Miami in Coral Gables is an example of a team taking advantage of open looks after running us through endless screens, as the ‘Canes hit 52.6% of their 19 threes in a 64–61 win. Iowa has a lot of long guards that can rain threes on a given evening.
Virginia
G: London Perrantes — 6'2'’ sr #32
I’m not sure that I would have guessed that London would be scoring 8 points per game and shooting 27.8% on threes through four games, but he’s doing exactly what he needs to.
G: Devon Hall — 6'5'’ jr #0
Devon has eight assists to three turnovers over our last three games and hit a three against Grambling State. Maybe he’s starting to preheat.
G: Darius Thompson — 6'4'’ jr #51
Darius is being much more aggressive with the ball this season: he’s using more possessions (23% to 14.2%) and ending more in shots (22.2% to 12.6%) or assists (18.7% to 14.6%).
F: Isaiah Wilkins — 6'7'’ jr #21
Much like with London, I’m waiting to judge Isaiah’s work this season on what it looks like once we start playing against better competition. So far, he’s done what he needs to.
F: Jack Salt — 6'11'’ so #33
Jack is still being called for less than half (3.5 to 7.2) as many fouls per 40 minutes as he was last year.
G: Kyle Guy — 6'3'’ fr #5
My problem with Guy is that I keep wanting him to shoot more. Every time he ends a game with more shot attempts, I want him to shoot more next time. Eventually, I’m going to want him to take all of the shots.
F: Marial Shayok — 6'6'’ jr #4
Marial has played almost two full games’ worth of minutes (72) without a turnover.
F: Mamadi Diakite — 6'9'’ fr #25
Mamadi is blocking almost a quarter of opposing shot attempts when he’s on the floor. He has eight blocks in 48 minutes. Is he more than just blocked shots? Absolutely. He’s playing very good positional defense as the hedge man and nailed a 17-footer against Grambling State. The blocks are just a beautiful calling card.
Iowa
G: Christian Williams — 6'5'’ so #10
Just 4–13 from the field so far in 19.5 minutes per game, but has a 28.2% assist rate, thanks to four assists in three games and five in the other.
G: Peter Jok — 6'6'’ sr #14
What more is there even to say about Jok? He’s good. Real good. I will say I’d be more afraid of him if he showed more of a willingness to go all the way to the basket.
F: Nicholas Baer — 6'7'’ so #51
An Isaiah Wilkins-esque stat stuffer, Baer averages 8.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, two steals, and one block per game while shooting 40% on 15 three point tries.
F: Dom Uhl — 6'9'’ jr #25
A stretch four, Uhl has secured 12.6% of offensive boards and 20% of defensive, but also has 10 three point attempts to just eight twos.
F: Tyler Cook — 6'9'’ fr #5
McCaffery thinks that Cook is going to be a legit star sooner rather than later. He’s already getting star calls (52.5 FT rate).
G: Jordan Bohannon — 6'o’’ fr #3
A mixed bag. He has 19 assists and a 29.2% assist rate, but also eight turnovers (26.3%). Has hit five threes in four games, but his 5–17 (and 5–21 overall).
G: Brady Ellingson — 6'4'’ so #24
Has a 160.3 ORTG thanks to 70.6% shooting overall and 63% from the arc. Does literally (Chris Traeger voice) nothing else, but does this well.
F: Cordell Pemsl — 6'8'’ fr #35
Good things in a (very) small sample: 70% shooting, 27.4% DREB, 15.3% OREB, 15 FTA to 17 FGA.
Verdict:
I think maybe we appear uncomfortable for a half or so until we get the tempo under control, but once we do, our discipline on offense and defense, experience, and Iowa’s inability to keep us from scoring will put us over. ‘Hoos by 10.
