With just about a month to go before the end of the regular season, you’d better make your NCAA move right about now. Sure, there are the conference tournaments, but do you really want to enter those tournaments on the bubble? Unless you win it, you aren’t guaranteed anything.
In the ACC, Duke, UNC, Clemson, Virginia, NC State, Miami, and Louisville are either locks for the NCAA Tournament or just about there.
For the ACC Bubble teams, SMU, Cal, Virginia Tech, and Stanford, at least 1 will make it, but more than 2. What does each need to feel confident heading to the ACC tournament? While the ACC is very good this year, I don’t see any ACC team making the Big Dance without at least .500 record in the ACC.
Stanford (15-9, 4-7) NET 69, RPI 56 Q1 4-4
Stanford is the biggest longshot. Their NET is the worst, and they need at least a 5-2 finish, and that still might be enough. They only have 2 home games left with Pitt and SMU. They must go to BC, Wake Forest, Cal, Notre Dame, and NC State. Stanford looks more likely headed to the NIT.
Virginia Tech (16-8, 5-6) NET 55, RPI 46 Q1 2-7
A 4-3 finish would get the Hokies to 20-11, 9-9. They play at Clemson, at Miami, at UNC, and at Virginia. They host red-hot FSU, Wake Forest, and Boston College. I don’t like the Hokies chances.
California (16-7, 5-6) NET 59, RPI 54 Q1 4-5
Cal did not look like an NCAA team getting routed by Clemson at home. They need a 4-3 finish, and preferably 5-2. The schedule is doable at Syracuse, at BC, Stanford, SMU, Pitt, at Georgia Tech, and at Wake Forest. The NET needs work.
SMU (16-7, 5-5) NET 34, RPI 30 Q1 3-6
SMU needs a 4-4 finish to end up 20-11, 9-9. If Notre Dame and BC are the gimmes, then SMU must win 2 out of the games at Syracuse, Louisville, at Cal, at Stanford, Miami, and at Florida State. That is a tricky finish, but their metrics are good.
