Week 10 has the kind of Saturday night headliners that swallow the whole conversation. That is usually when the quieter prices get soft. We ran the board through GameSim, and a few favorites look a lot less safe than the sportsbooks think.
Here is where the sims see upset potential.
Miami at Notre Dame
This is the biggest disagreement on the board, and it is not close. Notre Dame is a 5.5 point home favorite at -218, with Miami getting +180. The market likes the Irish in South Bend.
Our sims do not. Miami wins 96.1% of the runs and averages a 43.5 to 24.3 score. That is not a coin flip. That is the model telling you the Hurricanes are the better side on Saturday night. If you only open one prediction this week, make it the Miami at Notre Dame prediction.
Alabama at LSU
Death Valley at 3:30, and the books have LSU as a home favorite around 5.5 points. Alabama is the plus money dog.
GameSim flips it hard. Alabama wins 89.5% of simulations, with a projected score of 42.3 to 25.6. Tiger Stadium at night can change anything, but the model is not hedging. The Tide as a road dog are the side the sims keep landing on. Full look: Alabama at LSU prediction.
Virginia Tech at SMU (Friday)
Friday night in Dallas, and SMU is laying 6 at -225. Virginia Tech is +185.
The sims lean the other way. Virginia Tech wins 61.0% of runs, and the average score is 33.8 to 31.7. Getting plus money on a road team the model actually favors is a clean upset watch before the weekend even starts. See the Virginia Tech at SMU prediction.
Nebraska at Illinois (Friday)
Nebraska is a short road favorite at -198, laying 4.5, and Illinois is +164. The market likes the Huskers, but not by a lot.
GameSim likes the Illini. Illinois wins 65.8% of simulations and projects to win 30.3 to 25.2. Memorial Stadium on a Friday night is a tough place for a small road favorite. Details: Nebraska at Illinois prediction.
Florida State at Boston College
Florida State is laying about a touchdown on the road at -270, with Boston College at +220. That price gives the Eagles about a 1 in 3 shot.
The sims call it a flip. Boston College wins 54.5% of runs, with a projected score of 29.6 to 28.1. Chestnut Hill in November has buried road favorites before, and plus money on the sim lean is worth a look. Check the Florida State at Boston College prediction.
Duke at NC State
Duke is a 4.5 point road favorite at -198, and NC State is +164. The books see a close ACC game with a Blue Devils lean.
Our sims lean the Wolfpack. NC State wins 58.0% of runs, and the average score is 27.8 to 26.0. A home underdog in a one score projection is the classic upset watch. Full breakdown: Duke at NC State prediction.
Quick hitters
- TCU at Arizona (Friday): Arizona is laying 9.5 at -345. TCU wins 45.0% of sims at +275, well above what the price implies, with a projected score of 29.5 to 27.7.
- Oregon at Ohio State: Ohio State is about a touchdown favorite at home. The sims call it a coin flip. Oregon wins 53.0% of runs, 29.2 to 28.6.
- Kentucky at Tennessee: Tennessee is still the pick at -245. Kentucky wins 40.0% of sims at +200, and the projected score is only 27.2 to 23.6.
- Georgia at Ole Miss: Georgia is -170 on the road. The sims have it nearly even, with Georgia at 53.0% and a 32.3 to 31.0 projection. Ole Miss at +142 is the value side if you want the dog.
For every game on the Week 10 slate, check out the full college football predictions board. Detailed projected player stats for all games are available exclusively to GameSim+ subscribers. Learn more and subscribe here.
