November’s early-season basketball slate brings three nonconference tests with very different shapes: one game the model sees as essentially even, and two road visits where the home side carries the clearer edge. The most intriguing tension may be in Pittsburgh, where the numbers and the market tell notably different stories.
Purdue Fort Wayne and Duquesne: a toss-up beneath the spread
Purdue Fort Wayne visits Duquesne in a Horizon-versus-A-10 matchup that could turn on the glass. Vegas lists Duquesne as a 10.5-point favorite, but GameSim’s 580 simulations give the visitors a 51% win probability and project a 73.3–72.9 result. That gap between the market spread and the model’s near-pick’em forecast makes this the slate’s most compelling numbers watch.
The projected frontcourt work is substantial: Purdue Fort Wayne’s Anthony Isaac Jr. is forecast for 12.6 rebounds alongside 8.6 points, while teammate DeAndre Craig Jr. projects to add 13.3 points and 6.9 boards. Duquesne has a versatile focal point in Tarence Guinyard, whose projection of 15.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists suggests he could influence the game across the floor. See the Purdue Fort Wayne-Duquesne prediction for the full forecast.
Manhattan takes on Kentucky’s scoring options
At Kentucky, Manhattan faces a steep stylistic and conference test, with the MAAC visitor walking into an SEC setting. GameSim projects a 79.7–71.9 Kentucky win and gives the Wildcats a 60% chance to prevail. Yet Manhattan’s Isaac Johnson is projected to deliver one of the evening’s biggest individual lines: 22.0 points and 11.1 rebounds. If he can make that production count against Kentucky’s depth of projected contributors, the visitors have a clear player to build around.
Kentucky’s forecast is spread across several names. Milan Momcilovic is projected for 18.5 points, while Zoom Diallo’s 15.3 points and 5.1 assists point to a key role in creating offense. Malachi Moreno adds a projected 13.2 points and 9.2 rebounds. The Manhattan-Kentucky prediction lays out the matchup outlook.
Wofford’s test in Tennessee
Wofford heads to Tennessee for another SoCon-SEC meeting. The model gives Tennessee a 61% win probability and projects an 81.0–72.1 home result, while Wofford has a potential inside-outside pairing to feature. Chace Watley is forecast for 14.8 points, and Brian Sumpter for 13.3 points with 9.6 rebounds. Tennessee’s Juke Harris projects to contribute 14.4 points and 7.5 boards, with Dai Dai Ames at 11.5 points.
That makes the battle for possessions worth tracking: Sumpter’s rebounding projection could help Wofford stay connected, while Tennessee has several projected scoring options. Follow the Wofford-Tennessee prediction for the complete model view.
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