Tuesday night is an 11-game NHL slate, and the best game on it is nearly too close to call. Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils, 7:30 PM ET: the GameSim projection has New Jersey 3.6, Edmonton 3.5, across 280 simulations. One tenth of a goal. That is the sims shrugging and telling you to watch the third period.
My take: a coin flip like this is exactly where the fun lives. Edmonton brings the most dangerous attack in hockey into a building where New Jersey can match it shift for shift, and the model refuses to separate them. If you want a favorite, the home ice is the only tiebreaker the sims will give you, and even that is worth just a tenth of a goal. Do not bet the rent on either side. Just watch.
The big favorite: Colorado keeps rolling in Columbus
If New Jersey is the coin flip, Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7:00 PM ET, is the statement game. The GameSim projection has Colorado 4.5, Columbus 3.1, the largest margin on the board. The Avs scoring four and a half on the road is the sims saying this is not a matchup, it is a mismatch.
My take: Colorado by nearly a goal and a half on the road is the kind of number that makes you check whether you misread it. You did not. The Avalanche at this point in the season are the team every other contender measures itself against, and the sims have them winning this one going away.
The rest of the favorite column is just as clear. Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators, 8:00 PM ET: Carolina 4.1, Nashville 2.9. Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers, 7:00 PM ET: Minnesota 3.5, Philadelphia 2.2. Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7:00 PM ET: Tampa Bay 4.4, Detroit 3.5.
More coin flips: Dallas in Washington, Vegas in Pittsburgh
Two more games the sims could not split. Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals, 7:00 PM ET: Washington 3.1, Dallas 3.0. Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7:00 PM ET: Vegas 3.7, Pittsburgh 3.5. My take: when the model gives you two coin flips on the same night, that is not indecision, that is honesty. These are the games where one bounce, one power play, one hot goalie decides it.
One more for the road
Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens, 7:00 PM ET: Montreal 3.2, Winnipeg 2.1. St. Louis Blues at New York Rangers, 7:00 PM ET: St. Louis 3.2, New York 2.8, a road call at Madison Square Garden. Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:00 PM ET: Toronto 4.0, Utah 3.6. And the late game, Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks, 9:00 PM ET: Vancouver 3.3, Anaheim 2.7.
The report card: Monday's NBA card goes 11-for-15, with the headliner flipping
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured NBA card went 11-for-15 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article, and the headliner flipped. Oklahoma City beat Cleveland 117-112 after the sims had the Cavaliers by 6.4, so the GameSim line took its lumps on the biggest game of the night. The biggest miss was louder: Sacramento beat Dallas 115-100 after a projected Dallas win by 17.8, and New Orleans edged Memphis 135-134 in a one-point shootout flip. The coin flips split too, as Washington beat Orlando 103-94 after the sims had the Magic by less than a point.
But the good three quarters of the card were genuinely good, and they deserve the same plain treatment. The nightcap names all landed: the Lakers beat Miami 138-117, Golden State beat Phoenix 116-113, and Houston beat Boston 109-93. The road calls landed too: Portland won in Denver 118-110 and Toronto won on the road 125-118. The tenth-of-a-point coin flip landed as well, with Atlanta beating Indiana 108-104. The rest held serve: Minnesota beat Milwaukee 112-100, Philadelphia beat Chicago 126-107, New York beat Brooklyn 103-90, Detroit beat Charlotte 124-91, and San Antonio beat Utah 119-97. Eleven winners right, four wrong, a flipped headliner and a flipped blowout call, and a nightcap trio that all cashed.
GameSim line: New Jersey by a tenth of a goal over Edmonton in the headliner, Colorado by nearly a goal and a half in Columbus, and Carolina by more than a goal in Nashville.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 11-for-15 on winners, with the nightcap trio and both road calls landing. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
