Monday night belongs to the NBA, with a 15-game card, and the best game tips first. Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:00 PM ET: the GameSim projection has Cleveland 117.2, Oklahoma City 110.8, a 6.4-point home call across 280 simulations.
My take: six points at home against the Thunder is the sims saying the Cavaliers are built to win this kind of game, not just survive it. Oklahoma City scoring a projected 110.8 on the road is no insult, it is a good team putting up a good number and still coming up short, because the sims have Cleveland answering with 117. This is the early-season measuring stick both teams want, and the model does not see it as a coin flip.
The nightcap names: Lakers, Warriors, and Rockets all favored at home
The late window is stacked with brand names. Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers: the GameSim projection has the Lakers 123.6, Miami 111.1, a 12.5-point home call. Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors: Golden State 120.8, Phoenix 111.9. Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets: Houston 122.2, Boston 112.4, a 9.8-point home call against the Celtics, which is not a number you see every day.
My take: three home favorites, three double-digit or near double-digit margins, and the boldest of the three is Houston. Holding Boston to a projected 112.4 while scoring 122.2 yourself is the sims saying the Rockets' home form is real. The Lakers number is the loudest, but the Rockets number is the one that would change how you think about the West if it holds.
Coin flips, road calls, and the upset pick
The 7:30 PM ET window has the two closest games on the board. Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers: the GameSim projection has Atlanta 115.3, Indiana 115.2, a one-tenth of a point edge, which is the sims shrugging and telling you to watch the fourth quarter. Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic: Orlando 110.2, Washington 109.3, less than a point of separation.
Then the road calls. Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets: the GameSim projection has Portland 114.9, Denver 110.1, a road upset call in a building where road wins are never cheap. Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Clippers: Toronto 112.1, the Clippers 100.7, an 11.4-point road call. My take: Portland in Denver is the number most likely to start an argument before tip, and Toronto by double digits on the road is the sims telling you the Clippers' home court is not scaring anyone right now.
One more for the road: Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks, Dallas 125.3, Sacramento 107.5, for a 232.8-point projected total. Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves, Minnesota 119.2, Milwaukee 109.3. Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers, Philadelphia 110.1, Chicago 103.4. Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks, New York 108.7, Brooklyn 103.5. Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets, Detroit 100.1, Charlotte 95.1, the lowest projected total of the night. New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, Memphis 122.8, New Orleans 109.4. Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, San Antonio 117.3, Utah 104.1.
The report card: a split Sunday, 6-for-12, with the nightcap call landing big
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured NFL card went 6-for-12 on called winners, a split Sunday, and the misses were not subtle. Buffalo beat Baltimore 36-10 after the sims had the Ravens by 2.8, so the GameSim line took its lumps on the headliner. The upset call flipped too, as Pittsburgh routed Cleveland 27-6. Denver beat Kansas City 28-24, Las Vegas beat the Jets 38-33, Arizona beat Dallas 33-30, and Tampa Bay shut out Atlanta 16-0 to flip the coin flip call.
But the good half of the card was genuinely good, and it is worth naming just as plainly. The Sunday night call landed big: Washington beat Philadelphia 27-10, against a projected 26.6 for the Commanders, a near-exact team score, and the 9.0-point projected margin turned into a 17-point win. The blowout direction held in Jacksonville, as Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 42-7, with the projected total of 48.1 landing almost exactly on the actual 49. The rest of the hits held serve: the Rams beat the Chargers 24-9, New England beat Miami 24-19, Detroit beat Minnesota 19-15, and Cincinnati beat Tennessee 43-36. Six winners right, six wrong, a flipped headliner and a flipped upset call, and a Sunday night call that was better than the projection.
GameSim line: Cleveland by six over Oklahoma City in the headliner, the Lakers by double digits over Miami, and Houston by nearly ten over Boston.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 6-for-12 on winners, with the Sunday night call landing bigger than projected. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
