Monday night is a three-sport buffet: the Rays are one win from the World Series, Monday Night Football lands in Santa Clara, and the Bay Area pulls double duty with a WNBA game the sims genuinely cannot split. Every score below is a MyGameSim projection — the games haven't been played yet.
Sunday's report card: 2-for-5 on the spotlight games, and the Jets call blew up exactly like I said it might
Honest first. Yesterday's five headline projections went 2-for-5 on winners. The good: Browns 13, Ravens 10 — the sims called it Cleveland 23.0-20.6, so the winner and the rock-fight shape were both right, just lower scoring than expected. And Bills 33, Raiders 30 — projected 31.9-25.5, right winner, and the "highest total on the board" read was dead on at 63 combined points.
The bad: Texans 34, Jaguars 31 flipped our Jaguars 26.3-24.2 coin flip — wrong team, but the shootout shape was right. Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 flipped the Tampa Bay 25.0-22.7 lean. And then there's Patriots 26, Jets 19. I wrote yesterday that the Jets-by-double-digits-in-Foxborough projection would either age brilliantly or terribly, and I promised to watch it with a notebook. It aged terribly. The sims had the Jets winning by nearly 12; New England won by 7. I put my name on the riskiest call on the board and it blew up. That's the deal — I show you the math, I own the whiffs.
One Saturday note from Jon's own tracking: the CFB slate went 27-for-50 on FBS winners (54%), with the value bets still finishing +11 units. The winners column is leaking; the edges column is paying.
ALCS Game 6: the Rays are one win from the World Series, and the sims like them tonight
The series flipped fast. The Rays took Game 4 in Cleveland 7-3, then stole Game 5 last night 3-1 behind Drew Rasmussen's seven stellar innings. Now it's back to St. Petersburg for Game 6, 8:08 PM ET, with Tampa Bay one win from its third World Series trip and Cleveland facing elimination.
The projection: Rays 4.7, Guardians 3.4 across 100 simulations. Not a coin flip this time — nearly a run and a half of separation, at home, for the team that has won two straight and watched its lineup wake up (11 hits in Game 4, early runs in all three opening frames of Game 5).
Here's my take: this has the feel of a clincher. Cleveland's offense has managed 4 runs in two games, José Ramírez is grinding, and Tampa's pitching staff is dealing. The Guardians' only path is stealing tonight to force a Game 7 — and the sims are blunt that it's not the likeliest outcome.
?? Perry's line: Tampa closes it out at home and the Rays are going to the World Series. If you want drama, bet Cleveland — but the 100-run average doesn't see it.
Monday Night Football: the model has zero respect for Washington's trip west
The projection: 49ers 26.6, Commanders 15.1 across 1,000 simulations. That's an 11.5-point margin — the biggest spread the model printed on any game today, and it's a home team by double digits.
The sims' read is simple: San Francisco's defense buries Washington's offense, and 15 points is about all the Commanders are getting in Santa Clara. But a word of humility after Sunday — the last time the model printed a double-digit NFL road number, the Jets lost by a touchdown in Foxborough. Big-spread sims have been the model's shakiest spot this weekend. San Francisco should win; just don't bet the mortgage on the margin.
The coin flip of the night: Dream at Valkyries, and the sims truly cannot pick
Same Bay Area, different building, 8 PM ET: Valkyries 82.7, Dream 82.1 across 360 simulations. Six-tenths of a point. Both teams projected within a single basket of 82. When a thousand-run model lands there, it's telling you to flip a coin — and then telling you the coin is fair.
When the sims shrug like this, I ride the home floor and the fourth quarter. Golden State gets the nod by the slimmest margin on tonight's board, and this is the game most likely to end on the final possession.
One more for the road: the NHL slate
Four games, and the tightest one is the desert: Mammoth 2.9, Penguins 2.89 — a hundredth of a goal in Utah, which is the model admitting it has no idea. Elsewhere the sims are clearer: Avalanche 2.6, Flyers 1.8 in Philadelphia; Maple Leafs 3.8, Sharks 2.6 in Toronto; and Rangers 2.5, Ducks 2.2 at the Garden. Colorado on the road by nearly a full goal is the strongest hockey lean of the night.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections — the games haven't been played yet. Sunday taught us the model can whiff, but the math doesn't care about my feelings. Run your own sims and come back with receipts.
