The Columbus Dispatch media poll has a top two and then everyone else. Illinois took 18 of 28 first-place votes and 498 points. Michigan State took the other nine first-place votes that did not go to Michigan, and 483 points. The Illini and the Spartans were picked first or second on all but one ballot. Michigan, the defending national champion, is third at 436 after Dusty May left for the NBA. UCLA and Nebraska round out a top five that is already 129 points behind Illinois.
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GameSim ran only Illinois and Michigan State. Neutral site, 20 simulations with each team on the home side, 2027, injuries off. Michigan State won 26 of the 40. The averages were Michigan State 63.5, Illinois 57.6. The two samples did not agree with each other. One finished 10-10, Illinois 60.8 and Michigan State 61.5. The other was Michigan State 16-4, 65.5-54.4. Put together, the sim likes the team the media ranked second.
The player vote already leaned that way. Jeremy Fears Jr. was preseason player of the year with 23 of 28 votes, and a unanimous All-Big Ten pick. Last season he was the only player in the country to average 15 points and 9 assists, at 15.2 and a nation-leading 9.4, and he set the Michigan State single-season assist record. Illinois' David Mirkovic was next in that vote with four. Andrej Stojakovic joins him on the preseason all-league team. Stefan Vaaks, in from Providence after a 15.8-point, 3.2-assist season, was the poll's preseason transfer. Illinois is coming off a Final Four. The media still put that team first. The 40-game sample did not.
The rest of the all-league list is the middle of this poll in miniature: Nebraska's Pryce Sandfort, also unanimous, Maryland's Pharrel Payne, Michigan's Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney, Ohio State's John Mobley Jr., UCLA's Trent Perry, USC's Rodney Rice, and Wisconsin's Nolan Winter. Ohio State's Anthony Thompson was the preseason freshman. Oregon, which would have to climb from 14th, sits at 147 points. The title argument the voters actually had is Illinois against Michigan State, and GameSim's answer is the Spartans, with one of the two samples doing most of the work.
| Poll | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Illinois (18) | 498 |
| 2 | Michigan State (9) | 483 |
| 3 | Michigan (1) | 436 |
| 4 | UCLA | 375 |
| 5 | Nebraska | 369 |
| 6 | Purdue | 347 |
| 7 | USC | 340 |
| 8 | Ohio State | 324 |
| 9 | Indiana | 292 |
| 10 | Iowa | 264 |
| 11 | Wisconsin | 240 |
| 12 | Maryland | 203 |
| 13 | Minnesota | 168 |
| 14 | Oregon | 147 |
| 15 | Washington | 116 |
| 16 | Northwestern | 88 |
| 17 | Rutgers | 68 |
| 18 | Penn State | 35 |
First-place votes in parentheses, 28 voters. Source: Columbus Dispatch Big Ten media poll, Oct. 5.
