The regular season went down to the final afternoon, which feels right for a year like this one. Houston clinched the AL West on Sunday with a 9-0 win in Sacramento to finish 81-81. Philadelphia took the last National League spot by beating Tampa Bay 7-3. So the bracket is set. The Wild Card Series starts Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET with Phillies-Braves, and all four series air on NBC, Peacock and NBCSN (full schedule from NBC Sports).
We wanted to know how this plays out, so we ran it. We used the MyGameSim engine and 2026 rosters to simulate every matchup that could possibly happen this October. That's 66 pairings, each played at both ballparks, for 13,200 games in all. We used those results to rate every team and set a home-field edge. Then we ran 200,000 full brackets using the real series formats: best-of-three wild card series hosted entirely by the higher seed, a 2-2-1 Division Series, and a 2-3-2 LCS and World Series.
Here's the short version. The Dodgers are the favorite, the Brewers are a clear second, and the rest of the field is closer together than the standings suggest.
Championship Odds
| Team | Seed | Record | Win WC | Win DS | Pennant | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | NL 2 | 100-62 | Bye | 59.9% | 35.3% | 22.8% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | NL 1 | 103-59 | Bye | 55.0% | 26.2% | 15.1% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | AL 1 | 98-64 | Bye | 49.9% | 23.4% | 9.1% |
| New York Yankees | AL 4 | 93-68 | 65.4% | 36.0% | 18.9% | 8.7% |
| Cleveland Guardians | AL 2 | 85-77 | Bye | 45.3% | 22.2% | 8.5% |
| Atlanta Braves | NL 3 | 94-68 | 61.2% | 26.5% | 13.9% | 8.0% |
| Houston Astros | AL 3 | 81-81 | 52.9% | 28.4% | 15.4% | 6.8% |
| Chicago White Sox | AL 6 | 84-78 | 47.1% | 26.3% | 14.8% | 6.8% |
| Chicago Cubs | NL 5 | 89-73 | 47.7% | 22.3% | 9.8% | 5.3% |
| San Diego Padres | NL 4 | 91-71 | 52.3% | 22.7% | 9.1% | 4.6% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | NL 6 | 88-74 | 38.8% | 13.6% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
| Boston Red Sox | AL 5 | 87-75 | 34.6% | 14.1% | 5.2% | 1.6% |
The NL is where the heavyweights are. A National League team won the World Series in 58.5% of our brackets. The four teams with byes combined to win 55.5% of the time, so a wild card champion is close to a coin flip. That matches what we've seen since the 12-team format showed up.
Wild Card Series
No. 6 White Sox at No. 3 Astros
This is the strangest series on the board. The White Sox won three more games than Houston, but they have to fly to Texas because division winners get the top three seeds. The Astros finished at .500 and allowed more runs than they scored (734 scored, 766 allowed). They're the only playoff team with a negative run differential.
What Houston does have is Yordan Alvarez. He hit .316 with 42 homers and a 1.033 OPS, and he's the most dangerous hitter in this series by a wide margin. Josh Hader has also been close to untouchable, with a 1.02 ERA in 45 appearances. The problem is getting the ball to him. Hunter Brown (3.19 ERA) is the only reliable starter, and Houston went into the final day without naming one.
Chicago counters with Munetaka Murakami (35 homers) and Miguel Vargas (33 homers, 22 steals). Sean Burke has quietly turned into a real No. 1, with 185 strikeouts in 172 innings. Across the full field, our model actually rates the White Sox as slightly better than Houston. Home field is the only thing tipping this series. The Astros won 54 of 100 simulated games at home, and the series comes out at Astros 52.9%. Treat it as a coin flip.
No. 5 Red Sox at No. 4 Yankees
It's the prime-time game, and for the second straight year these two meet in the Wild Card Series. According to NBC, it's the seventh time overall they've met in the postseason.
This is the most lopsided wild card series in our numbers. The Yankees won 67 of 100 simulated games in the Bronx by an average score of 4.8 to 3.6. Cam Schlittler is the reason. He went 14-6 with a 1.96 ERA and 239 strikeouts over 193 innings, and behind him are Carlos Rodon (2.68) and Max Fried (2.81). In a short series that's as good a top three as anyone has. Ben Rice hit 41 homers with an .897 OPS, and David Bednar saved 35 games.
Boston isn't a pushover. Sonny Gray went 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA, Aroldis Chapman had a 1.93 ERA with 35 saves, and Willson Contreras posted a .901 OPS. The lineup is the issue. Past Contreras there isn't much thump, and the engine rated Boston lowest of all 12 teams. Yankees 65.4%.
No. 6 Phillies at No. 3 Braves
Philadelphia limped in. They went 10-14 in September and needed the final day to get in. On the other hand, few teams can line up three starters like Jesus Luzardo (2.86 ERA, 221 strikeouts), Cristopher Sanchez (207 innings, 2.91) and Zack Wheeler (3.00). Kyle Schwarber hit 45 homers and Bryce Harper put up an .865 OPS.
Atlanta has the best pitcher in this series. Chris Sale went 14-9 with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, and he'll probably make the one start that matters most. Matt Olson hit 41 homers, and Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II both hit around .290 with some pop. The Braves won 58 of 100 simulated games at Truist Park, outscoring the Phillies by almost a run per game. Across the field the model rates Atlanta as the second-best team in the NL. Braves 61.2%.
No. 5 Cubs at No. 4 Padres
Two teams going in opposite directions. San Diego went 18-6 in September, tied with Milwaukee for the best record in baseball that month. The Cubs went 11-13.
Chicago has the best player in this series, though. Pete Crow-Armstrong had a monster year: 45 homers, 41 steals, 107 RBIs and a .943 OPS. The Cubs scored 850 runs, the most of any playoff team. Their weak spot is the rotation. Shota Imanaga (3.77) and Matthew Boyd (3.92) are fine, but nobody here is going to carry them through October.
San Diego has the best closer in the field. Mason Miller struck out 129 hitters in 70 innings with a 1.67 ERA and 38 saves. Fernando Tatis Jr. stole 38 bases and Ty France hit .295. The Padres won 58 of 100 at Petco. Across the full field, though, the model sees these teams as nearly even, and that brings the series back to Padres 52.3%. This is the one I'd stay up for.
Division Series
The Division Series starts Saturday, October 3, with the ALDS on TBS, truTV and HBO Max and the NLDS on FOX and FS1 (MLB's postseason schedule). Here's how the most likely matchups play out.
Rays vs. Yankees. This is the upset our simulation likes the most. Tampa Bay won 98 games behind Junior Caminero (42 homers), Drew Rasmussen (2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) and Bryan Baker (41 saves, 1.45 ERA). Still, the engine rates the Rays as a below-average playoff team. Yankees pitching is the reason. If New York gets through Boston, they win this series 54.9% of the time. If it's Boston instead, the Rays are 58.9% favorites.
Guardians vs. Astros or White Sox. Cleveland won the Central at 85-77 with just an 11-run differential. They got there on pitching. Parker Messick (2.56 ERA), Gavin Williams (248 strikeouts) and Cade Smith (41 saves, 1.95) will keep them in every game. The offense is thin, though. Chase DeLauter led the team with a modest .820 OPS. The Guardians are slight underdogs against either opponent: 46.3% against Houston and 44.1% against Chicago.
Brewers vs. Padres or Cubs. Milwaukee had the best record in baseball and the best run differential (+214). Jacob Misiorowski might be the Cy Young winner after going 16-5 with a 1.81 ERA, 252 strikeouts and a 0.80 WHIP. Logan Henderson (2.48) gives them a second weapon. Offensively they come at you in waves instead of with one big bat: Jake Bauers (.874 OPS), Jackson Chourio (.291, 23 steals) and Brice Turang (100 RBIs). They're favorites against San Diego at 56.3% and against the Cubs at 53.4%.
Dodgers vs. Braves or Phillies. This is the series of the round if Atlanta gets through. Los Angeles went 18-7 in September. Shohei Ohtani hit 30 homers with an .889 OPS, Max Muncy added 29, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) is as good a Game 1 starter as anyone has. The Dodgers win 56.6% of the time against Atlanta and 64.6% against Philadelphia.
League Championship Series
If the favorite wins every series, the ALCS is Astros vs. Yankees, and it's as close to a tie as our numbers get. Houston would have home field as the higher seed. The Yankees still win 50.1% of the time. If you want the most likely AL pennant winner outright, it's actually Tampa Bay at 23.4%. The Rays get there by avoiding New York.
The NLCS would be Brewers vs. Dodgers, the matchup everyone has expected since June. Milwaukee has the better record and gets home field, but the Dodgers are the strongest team in our model and win the series 56.1% of the time. The top two NL seeds are the most likely pennant winners in the bracket, and if you like the Brewers it's hard to argue with you. The Dodgers just have a little more at the top of the lineup.
World Series Pick
The World Series starts Friday, October 23, at the home of the pennant winner with the better regular-season record. The single most likely matchup is Dodgers vs. Rays, and even that only comes up in 8.3% of brackets. If you follow the favorite in every round, you get Dodgers vs. Yankees. Los Angeles would have home field with 100 wins to New York's 93, and wins that series 60.7% of the time.
Our pick: Dodgers over Yankees.
To keep that in perspective, 22.8% is the highest title number in the field. That means the Dodgers lose in about 77 of every 100 simulated postseasons. The field against the Dodgers is a much better bet than the Dodgers themselves, and that's pretty much how October always goes.
How We Ran It
Every game was simulated with 2026 season stats and current rosters, with no manual adjustments for probable starters. Because the engine picks its own lineups and rotations, it can't fully capture a manager shortening his rotation or riding a hot reliever. That's worth remembering for teams like Houston and San Diego, whose bullpens are better than their rotations. You can run any of these matchups yourself at MyGameSim.
