Three ranked SEC games give November 7 a distinctly high-stakes feel, with road tests for No. 4 Texas, No. 2 Georgia and No. 5 Alabama. The simulations see two games hanging in the balance and one with a wider projected margin, but none of these matchups lacks a compelling individual duel.
No. 4 Texas at No. 18 Missouri
Missouri gets the chance to make its home field count against a top-five opponent. The model gives Texas a narrow 52% win probability, projecting a 23.7–22.3 finish. That slim edge suggests a game where a single drive—or a missed opportunity—could shape the result. The listed Vegas spread is 3.5 points, while the projected total is 49.5.
The quarterback numbers point to a closely matched passing contest: Missouri’s Austin Simmons is projected for 238.6 yards and 2.1 touchdowns, while Texas’ Arch Manning is forecast for 236.5 yards and 2.4 scores. On the ground, Missouri’s Jamal Roberts leads the listed rushers with a projected 93.5 yards. Texas’ Raleek Brown is forecast for 61.1. See the Texas-Missouri prediction.
No. 2 Georgia at No. 21 Ole Miss
Ole Miss has a chance to turn a home date with the second-ranked team into a statement-making shootout. The model projects 33.2 points for Georgia and 30.9 for Ole Miss, with the Bulldogs holding a 53% win probability after 620 simulations. A 55.5 total reflects the expectation of plenty of offense, and Georgia is listed with a 4.5-point spread.
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is projected for 303.2 passing yards and 3.3 touchdowns, setting up a high-profile response to Georgia’s Gunner Stockton, forecast for 258.8 yards and 2.9 passing scores. Stockton also carries a projection of 33.0 rushing yards and 0.4 touchdowns. Makhi Frazier is the Rebels’ leading listed rusher at 39.7 yards. If Chambliss reaches his projected production, the home side could keep pressure on Georgia deep into the game. Ole Miss will need to make those opportunities count. Explore the Georgia-Ole Miss prediction.
No. 5 Alabama at No. 11 LSU
The slate’s other ranked SEC clash pairs two top-11 teams, and the model projects the largest margin of the three games: Alabama 42.8, LSU 25.0. Alabama’s simulated win probability is 75%. The listed Vegas spread is 3.5 points, with a 54.5 over/under.
Both quarterbacks are projected to clear 300 passing yards. Alabama’s Keelon Russell is forecast for 319.5 yards and 3.7 passing touchdowns; LSU’s Sam Leavitt is projected for 310.0 yards and 3.0. That production gives the Tigers a clear route to making the numbers more competitive, even with Alabama favored by the simulation. Daniel Hill and Trae’shawn Brown are each projected for close to 60 rushing yards for the Crimson Tide. View the Alabama-LSU prediction.
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