Friday night, 8:00 PM ET: Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies. The GameSim projection has Memphis 116.2, Oklahoma City 109.8, across 280 simulations. That is the defending champions getting picked to lose by more than six points on the road, and the sims are not shy about it.
My take: this is the model betting on Memphis at home, full stop. The projected stats have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander doing his part with 33.0 points, but the sims give Memphis the deeper night, with Ty Jerome projected at 27.0 points and Cameron Boozer at 16.7 points and 10.9 rebounds. When the champs are underdogs by this much, the sims are saying the home floor and the supporting cast matter more than the best player on the court. If Oklahoma City wins this one, it will be because SGA goes nuclear, not because the sims missed the shape of the game.
The late game is just as loud: Portland over the Lakers
At 10:00 PM ET, Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers: Portland 119.2, Los Angeles 116.1, across 280 simulations. A road team favored in Los Angeles, in a game projected to run past 235 points combined. The sims see a shootout, and they see the Blazers winning it.
My take: Portland by three in a track meet is the kind of call that either looks brilliant by midnight or gets laughed off by the second quarter. But 119 points on the road is a statement about the Blazers offense, not a coin flip, and the Lakers giving up that many at home is the part of this projection worth watching.
The rest of the nine-game board
The road favorite theme keeps going. Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:00 PM ET: Toronto 114.1, Milwaukee 110.5. Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets, 7:00 PM ET: Boston 105.9, Charlotte 100.2. San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET: San Antonio 114.6, Sacramento 108.3.
The home favorites hold serve elsewhere. Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:30 PM ET: Cleveland 116.5, Philadelphia 107.0. Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks, 7:00 PM ET: Atlanta 114.5, Washington 106.9. Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks, 8:00 PM ET: Dallas 116.5, Utah 103.8, the widest margin on the board. And the coin flip of the night, Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:00 PM ET: Minnesota 114.6, New Orleans 113.5, separated by barely a point.
Friday night college football: the sims like the unranked road team at No. 16 SMU
Five games, and the opener is the one to watch. Virginia Tech at SMU, 7:00 PM ET: Virginia Tech 33.4, SMU 31.5, across 780 simulations. The Mustangs are ranked 16th and at home, and the sims still take the Hokies by two. That is a ranked home team getting picked to lose, and it is the boldest college call of the night.
The rest of the Friday slate: USF at East Carolina, 7:30 PM ET: East Carolina 21.2, USF 17.2, across 780 simulations. Nebraska at Illinois, 8:00 PM ET: Illinois 30.0, Nebraska 25.2. New Mexico at Nevada, 9:00 PM ET: New Mexico 20.5, Nevada 18.2. And the late coin flip, TCU at Arizona, 10:15 PM ET: Arizona 28.9, TCU 27.8, with the 17th-ranked Wildcats favored by barely a point at home.
My take: Virginia Tech over a ranked SMU is the Friday night upset the sims are actually selling, and the TCU at Arizona line is a reminder that a ranking next to a name does not move the model. Two ranked home teams, two calls that go the other way.
One more for the road
College hoops has a 43-game board, and the tightest ones are worth a look. Eastern Washington at Oregon, 6:00 PM ET: Eastern Washington 74.3, Oregon 73.9, the sims taking the road team by half a point. Boston University at Brown, 7:00 PM ET: Boston University 65.2, Brown 64.2. Oakland at Stanford, 10:00 PM ET: Stanford 67.7, Oakland 67.3, and North Florida at UCLA, 10:30 PM ET: North Florida 66.3, UCLA 66.2, two late games separated by less than half a point each. On the ice, three games: Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres, 7:00 PM ET: Columbus 3.2, Buffalo 2.9. Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames, 8:00 PM ET: Anaheim 3.6, Calgary 3.5. San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild, 8:00 PM ET: Minnesota 3.5, San Jose 2.6.
The report card: yesterday's card goes 10-for-18, with the headliner landing big and college football flipping twice
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured card went 10-for-18 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article. The headliner landed big, as Jacksonville beat Baltimore 33-10 after the sims had the Jaguars 29.1 to 23.3, the road favorite winning by 23.
The misses were real, and the loudest call was the biggest of them. The Rangers beat Philadelphia 3-2 after the sims had the Flyers by more than two goals, and college football flipped twice in a big way, as Florida Atlantic beat TX-San Antonio 60-29 after the sims had the Roadrunners by 8.4, and James Madison beat Southern Miss 54-23 after the sims had the Golden Eagles by 3.2. The rest of the ice split too, as Columbus beat Dallas 2-1, Anaheim won in Edmonton 5-4, Winnipeg beat Vancouver 6-2, Nashville won in Colorado 3-2, and New Jersey beat St. Louis 5-4, all against the sims. The NHL finished 5-for-11.
But the rest of the card held, and the near-exact calls were the story. Phoenix beat Orlando 117-104, with the Suns landing on 117 points against a projected 117.4, and Golden State beat Miami 120-100, for a 2-for-2 NBA night. Florida beat Jacksonville 88-57, with the Gators landing on 88 against a projected 89.8, and Duke beat Coastal Carolina 113-52, for a 2-for-2 college hoops night. On the ice, Tampa Bay beat Chicago 4-1, Carolina beat the Islanders 5-3, Boston beat Pittsburgh 6-2, Montreal edged Utah 5-4, a one-goal game against a projected 0.9-goal margin, and Vegas beat Detroit 2-1. Ten winners right, eight wrong, a split night with the big calls on both sides of the ledger. One batch note: the same card grades 11-for-18 on the final sim batch, with the St. Louis at New Jersey coin flip the only game that changed status, the late sims flipping it to New Jersey.
GameSim line: Memphis by more than six over the champs, Portland by three in Los Angeles, and Virginia Tech by two at No. 16 SMU.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 10-for-18 on winners, with the headliner landing big, the Suns and the Gators nearly exact on the score, and college football flipping twice. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
