Thursday night gives the Jacksonville Jaguars a chance to build on a strong start, while the Baltimore Ravens return home looking to steady their season. Jacksonville arrives at 5-2 for this Week 9 AFC matchup; Baltimore is 4-4 after a rough trip to Buffalo. The records set the scene, but the central question is whether the Ravens can make the home setting count against a Jaguars team coming off a decisive win.
Jacksonville’s latest outing was a 42-7 victory over Indianapolis, with Trevor Lawrence throwing three touchdowns. His recent performances also include a 306-yard, four-touchdown game against Houston and a 331-yard, two-touchdown effort against Philadelphia. The season projection for Thursday is more measured but still points to a prominent role: GameSim forecasts 260 passing yards and 2.1 touchdowns for Lawrence. If he can keep Jacksonville’s offense moving through the air, Baltimore will have to find answers quickly.
The ground game offers another intriguing thread. The model projects 94.5 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns for Jaguars running back Bhayshul Tuten, with Chris Rodriguez Jr. adding a projected 41.8 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. That gives Jacksonville a potential balance point alongside Lawrence’s passing outlook. For Baltimore, Derrick Henry is projected for 95.4 rushing yards and 0.7 touchdowns, making his workload a key piece of the Ravens’ response. Justice Hill’s projection is 22.5 yards and 0.3 touchdowns.
At quarterback, Tyler Huntley is forecast for 254.5 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns. Baltimore’s most recent game—a 36-10 loss at Buffalo—was a difficult one, and the Ravens will need a more productive offensive showing to keep pace. The projections suggest the passing matchup could be competitive, while the running backs on both sides may shape how each team manages the game. Those are useful talking points, not guarantees: the balance between the run and pass will have to play out on the field.
Our model gives Jacksonville a 58% win probability across 800 simulations, with a projected score of Jaguars 29.1, Ravens 23.3. That outlook puts the visitors in front, but it still leaves room for Baltimore to change the script at home. The listed Vegas total is 40.5, while the listed spread is 10.0; those numbers offer another frame for bettors weighing the matchup alongside the simulation.
For the full forecast and matchup details, visit the Jaguars-Ravens prediction page. Detailed projected player stats for all games are available exclusively to GameSim+ subscribers. Learn more about GameSim+ and subscribe.
