Thursday Night Football, 8:15 PM ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens. The GameSim projection has Jacksonville 29.1, Baltimore 23.3, across 800 simulations. That is a road team favored by nearly six points, on a Thursday night, in Baltimore. The sims are not hedging here, they are picking a side.
My take: a six-point road call in a primetime divisional-style spot is the model saying Jacksonville's offense travels. The projected stats back it up, with Trevor Lawrence at 260 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, and Bhayshul Tuten at 94.5 rushing yards. On the other side, the sims project Tyler Huntley under center for Baltimore at 254 passing yards, with Derrick Henry at 95.4 rushing yards, and Brenton Strange leading all receivers at 71.5 yards. If the Ravens are going to flip this, the sims are saying it probably starts on the ground, not through the air.
Eleven on the ice, and the Flyers are the loudest call
The NHL slate is the biggest board of the night, eleven games, and the boldest projection belongs to Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, 7:00 PM ET: Philadelphia 5.3, New York 2.9. Five goals on the road at the Garden is the sims saying the Flyers bring the offense tonight, and the Rangers do not keep up.
The other big favorite is just as clear. Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7:00 PM ET: Tampa Bay 4.8, Chicago 2.6. Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7:00 PM ET: Dallas 3.3, Columbus 2.2. Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders, 7:00 PM ET: Carolina 4.1, New York 3.1. Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7:00 PM ET: Boston 4.1, Pittsburgh 3.2.
My take: when the sims hand a road team five goals, that is not a lean, that is a green light. The Flyers call is the one to watch, and Tampa Bay at home is the steady favorite behind it.
The rest of the ice: Utah Mammoth at Montreal Canadiens, 7:00 PM ET: Montreal 4.3, Utah 3.4. Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers, 8:00 PM ET: Edmonton 4.3, Anaheim 3.1. Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings, 7:00 PM ET: Vegas 3.8, Detroit 3.0. Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets, 7:00 PM ET: Vancouver 3.1, Winnipeg 2.6, a road lean with real conviction. Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche, 9:30 PM ET: Colorado 3.8, Nashville 3.2, the late game. And the coin flip of the night, St. Louis Blues at New Jersey Devils, 7:00 PM ET: St. Louis 3.5, New Jersey 3.3, separated by two tenths of a goal.
Two on the hardwood
A short NBA night, but both games have a clear favorite. Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns, 9:00 PM ET: Phoenix 117.4, Orlando 113.4. Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors, 10:00 PM ET: Golden State 121.4, Miami 113.3. My take: the Suns by four at home is the tighter call, and the Warriors by eight is the sims trusting the home floor late. Neither is a coin flip, but Phoenix is the one that could get interesting in the fourth quarter.
One more for the road
College football has two FBS games with real sim volume behind them. TX-San Antonio at Florida Atlantic, 7:30 PM ET: TX-San Antonio 40.0, Florida Atlantic 31.6, across 1,120 simulations. James Madison at Southern Miss, 8:00 PM ET: Southern Miss 28.8, James Madison 25.6, also across 1,120 simulations. And in college hoops, keep an eye on Coastal Carolina at Duke, 8:00 PM ET: Duke 70.4, Coastal Carolina 67.5, a much tighter projection than the name brands suggest, while Jacksonville at Florida, 8:00 PM ET, has Florida 89.8, Jacksonville 71.2.
The report card: yesterday's NBA card goes 8-for-14, with the coin flips landing and the big favorites flipping
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured NBA card went 8-for-14 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article. The headliner missed, as Oklahoma City beat Cleveland 124-116 after the sims had the Cavaliers by 1.6 in the rematch, the Thunder's second straight win in the matchup. The big favorites flipped too, as Philadelphia beat Detroit 112-106 after a projected sixteen-plus point Pistons win, and Indiana beat Memphis 107-103 after a projected twenty-two point Grizzlies win. Atlanta won in Washington 120-105, Minnesota won in Houston 117-107, and Denver beat Toronto 128-109, all against the sims.
But the coin flips landed, and the solid calls held. San Antonio beat Dallas 112-111 after the sims had the Spurs by 5.6, and Miami beat the LA Clippers 117-116, both one-point games with the right winner. New York beat Chicago 135-105, Boston beat Milwaukee 109-102, Portland beat Phoenix 132-119, the LA Lakers beat Sacramento 116-103, New Orleans beat Utah 120-113, and Brooklyn beat Charlotte 114-104. Eight winners right, six wrong, a split night. The totals did honest work on the high-scoring end, as Portland at Phoenix ran to 251 points against a projected 228.2, Chicago at New York ran to 240 against a projected 209.3, and Charlotte at Brooklyn ran to 218 against a projected 193.1, all overs. That is the value the sims still provide on a night the favorites let go: the totals, the projected stats, and the next card.
GameSim line: Jacksonville by nearly six in Baltimore, Philadelphia by more than two at the Garden, and Tampa Bay by more than two over Chicago.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 8-for-14 on winners, with the coin flips landing and the totals running over on the high-scoring end. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
