Georgia Tech has borne the brunt of some of the Bennett era’s signature beatdowns:
- An 82-54 Virginia win in Charlottesville in 2013 that saw Akil score 18 points, Bub go for 10 and eight assists, and the entire team combine for five turnovers.
- A 64-45 win in Atlanta in 2014 where the ‘Jackets scored 15 in the second half, four in the last 10 minutes, and made just six two point shots all game.
- Last season’s 57-28 win in JPJ. Georgia Tech scored 10 points in the first 10 minutes and then 18 in the last 30. They shot 0-12 on threes, logged just two assists, shot less than 25% from the field, and scored 0.53 points per possession.
With those results still fresh on our minds, it’d be easy to think of Georgia Tech as Virginia’s bumbling Washington Generals. After all, they scored fewer points in the last two meetings combined (73) than we’re averaging this year (75). Looking at what we’ve done defensively of late (more than a point per possession surrendered to four of our last five opponents) and what Georgia Tech has accomplished offensively this season (they’re scoring 1.1 points per possession and just hung 78 and 84 in consecutive losses to UNC and Pitt), I would advise against getting too confident. The ‘Jackets have put together a low-risk attack (just 15.2% of their possessions end in turnovers) that emphasizes what they do well, has gotten them to 10 wins entering conference play and notched them top-100 wins over Tennessee, Arkansas, and VCU. They won’t be an NCAA tournament team this year, but they’re not outright bad, and that’s saying something. Much of their rise can be credited to how transfer-happy college hoops is these days: their second, third, and fourth-leading scorers and four of their five starters started their careers elsewhere.
The new faces might be the difference, but an old one still gets his name on the marquee. Marcus Georges-Hunt has been in Atlanta long enough to have been in the studio for Southernplayalisticadillacmuzik, but he’s hoping for a strong finish to a career spent toiling for teams that have gone 15-39 in the ACC. Georges-Hunt is the same player he’s always been — he’s still using his handles to get into the lane and draw fouls (he’s taking an absurd 0.7 FTs per shot attempt), still taking a lot (34% of his shots) and making a fair amount (42%) of two point jumpers, and he’s still just good enough of a three point shooter (35.6%) to make his dribble-drive game work — but like anyone, he looks a lot better since he’s gotten some help. That help comes in small (6’1” VT transfer Adam Smith) and large (6’9,” 256 pound Charles Mitchell) packages. Smith came to Atlanta after two seasons as the Hokies’ scariest perimeter threat, and he’s found success: he’s scoring 14.7 points per game and hitting 47.3% from the arc. In GT’s first two ACC games, he’s made 14 of 23 tries from deep. Mitchell (who lost 15 pounds this offseason) has been dominant on the offensive glass. 17.3% of GT’s misses end up in his hands, and he grabbed nine offensive boards against Pitt. With the help of Alabama transfer Nick Jacobs (10.6% OREB), he’s done a nice job cleaning up in the paint and scoring at the rim.
Their defense hasn’t been as good. GT is smallish in the backcourt (Smith and point guard Josh Heath run 6’1” and 6’2”) and slowish up front (Mitchell and Jacobs are big, but not fleet), so teams — especially good ones like Villanova (112.8 efficiency mark), UNC (115.6) and Pitt (127.7) — have been able to get what they want. Georgia Tech has been pretty good contesting jump shots and rebounding (73.5% of opponents’ misses), but they don’t force turnovers (15.3%, 326th in the country), don’t guard the pick and roll particularly well, and don’t make people miss.
There are two scenarios that could I see playing out:
The first one, powered by overreaction to our nightmare in Blacksburg, sees Georgia Tech with the tools to take advantage of every weakness we’ve displayed this season: a guard (Georges-Hunt) who can get to the rim with impunity, another one (Smith) who can drop a wheelbarrow full of threes, and two bigs who vacuum up every possible miss (we’ve given up an offensive rebound percentage I’d call “bad” in five of our last six games). Those factors lead to Georgia Tech feasting on offense while ours again appears tentative and struggles to find their footing.
Scenario two acknowledges that Georgia Tech is upholding the Brian Gregory tradition of wayyyy too many two point jumpers (only 28.7% of their shots have been threes), plays a predictable, dribble-based offensive game and employs the kind of traditional lineup that allows us to focus on our strengths (more Gill and especially Tobey, no chasing stretch fours to behind the arc).
This is the kind of game that *could* see a Mike Tobey bounceback, as Georgia Tech doesn’t really have a big that they can rely on to hit jumpers without changing the way they do business. We should be more competitive on the glass than we have been, so I imagine we’ll at least compete there. Finally, I don’t think that this Georgia Tech team is as lanky and athletic as the Virginia Tech team that gave us issues with the way they swarmed passing lanes on defense and forced the action to the sidelines.
I’m calling scenario two.
Verdict:
Vegas (UVa -5.5) and Ken Pomeroy (68-63) both see this as around a five point game. Pomeroy thinks we have a 71% chance of winning. We’ve been outstanding both at warding off upsets and winning ACC games on the road over the last two seasons, and this team (losses to a 72nd-ranked GW team and 119th-ranked VT team on the road) has appeared to be a little more vulnerable.
I think we’re more talented than Georgia Tech, but the Jackets have experience (four seniors and a junior in their starting lineup), home court advantage (such as it is, anyway) and will be playing with extra urgency after starting their ACC slate with two tight road losses. I think the offense will come close enough to what we expect for us to get over the hump, and that the ‘Hoos eke out a win behind strong play from the bigs and a balanced scoring effort. A loss wouldn’t surprise me, but I can’t bring myself to pull the trigger and call one.
