Game Preview: Virginia looks to right the ship as they host Miami - SCACCHoops.com

Game Preview: Virginia looks to right the ship as they host Miami

by UniversityBall.org

Posted: 2/20/2017 4:46:45 PM


I haven’t paid much attention to Miami; in fact, I didn’t watch the Hurricanes until the time came to write on them. It’s not they’re not good — they’re perfectly fine, still have Jim Larrañaga behind the boards, and have a 77–62 upset of UNC to their credit — but in an ACC with storylines to burn, Hurricane season has been pretty ho-hum. Now for the kicker: thanks to five wins in seven games, what qualifies as ho-hum is 18–8 overall and 8–6 in the ACC. Sound familiar?

Maybe we just need a firm kick in the rear. (IMG: VirginiaSportsTV on YouTube)

I need tonight’s game for my mental health. This team can be good, and can even be good against good teams — let’s not forget beating Cal at Cal, sweeping Louisville, or winning easily at Notre Dame when we’re hanging them on the cross of recent failures — but we’ve come to a point where beating a middling team at home is necessary to keep from losing more than three consecutive games in a row, a feat we’ve avoided since the 2010 team of Leitao refugees (Tony’s first) lost their last nine regular season games to finish 5–11 in the ACC. A team that is sound for the long haul wins tonight and does so in a fashion that eases the minds of the fretful faithful.

I’m not sure that our recent struggles should be that much of a surprise.

The Pack Line functions at peak capacity when there’s both one (or more) elite individual defenders both in the backcourt (Malcolm, Joe, Justin) and up front (say Akil or Darion or both). This year’s team has tried to make up in depth what it lacks in individual stars, and it hasn’t worked as well. While I believe that Mamadi Diakite could be evolutionary Akil Mitchell in two years, max, he’s not there yet.

On offense, we take a ton of jumpers, but lack the kind of elite threat that can draw attention and open up space for the shooters. While the adage that jump shooting teams never win has been disproven by the hail of threes dropped by the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers en route to NBA titles and Villanova in the NCAAs last year, all three of these teams have dominant, double-worthy players to feed off of (and the Warriors five-out, spread-and-scramble scheme is so different from what Virginia does that I may as well be writing about the best way to cook scrambled eggs). Those teams are taking a ton of threes, not a ton (a third of our shots as of this post) of two point jumpers — shots that aren’t as efficient as threes, but are subject to the same slumps.

Does this mean that we’re doomed? No. It means that no one should be surprised that this team with its analytic-averse offense is turning in periods (or games) of inefficient ball, especially against teams with more athleticism, singular talents, or good coaches.

The above is a long term issue. In the (very) short term, we need to figure out Miami. In a much-needed bit of good news, JaQuan Newton (15 ppg, 3.6 apg) whose ability to rocket to the rim presents a problem (and did in the second meeting with us last season) will miss tonight’s game as he serves the last game of a three-game suspension for violating team rules. The ‘Canes beat Georgia Tech and Clemson relatively easily without him, but he’s the engine that opens things up for their offense.

Miami’s offense grades out as efficient (1.08 ppp in ACC play) thanks to a consistent effort on the offensive glass (33.8% in conference games, third in the league), which makes up for some real struggles taking care of the basketball (a 19% turnover rate) or putting it in the basket (their 52.1% EFG% is 11th in the league). In Miami’s best game — the big win over UNC — Newton, Bruce Brown, and Davon Reed slashed to the rim for 28 free throw attempts and the smaller Hurricanes kept Carolina off the glass. In their worst conference game — a 96–79 loss to Wake — the Deacs gouged them inside for 64% two point shooting and got to the line 33 times, feasting on a size disparity at both frontcourt spots. Teams with go-to big men can have success against Miami, but we’re going to have to find another way.

6'6'’ senior Davon Reed (15.7 ppg) leads Miami in scoring. The ‘Canes don’t emphasize the three like a lot of teams (about a third of their shots are 3s, 10th in the league), but Reed does — they’re 54% of his shots, and he’s making 41.4% of them.

The other active Hurricane scoring in double figures per game is five star freshman Bruce Brown (11.4), who is shooting 32.7% and has scored in single digits in four of the six games since hanging 30 on UNC. Brown is 6'5,’’ and while he’s developing confidence in his jumper, his strength right now is getting into the lane and either finishing or drawing a foul (he takes 43.1 FT per 100 shots).

Miami doesn’t have the stretch four that Larrañaga loves, and they roll with four guards a lot since they lack a proven offensive presence in the paint to turn to (sound familiar?). Kamari Murphy (6.8 ppg) has scored in double figures in three of Miami’s last four games, but he only took four shots in two of those and is still mainly a threat on the offensive glass, where he keys (11.9% of chances) Miami’s second-chance offense.

Without a pure point guard either (Newton occupied the position physically but not mentally), the ‘Canes are a collection of wings, picking and screening for almost 20 seconds per possession until someone either has a lane to the rim or a look at a three. With us taking almost 21 seconds per possession, it’s fair to say this will be a game in the fifties or low sixties.

Defensively, Miami shifts between man and zone, but has struggled to consistently stop people with either look this season. The ‘Canes are middle of the pack in the ACC in defensive efficiency, don’t force many turnovers, and have missed Tonye Jekiri’s long reach as a defender around the rim.

Reed must be stopped. He’s got five games of at least four threes this season, and is a candidate to be the next rangy wing to bury a handful of threes against us. When someone like that gets it going (most recently exemplified by Justin Jackson), it spreads the defense out and opens driving lanes and room to work for post players. I’m not worried about the post, but I am worried about Bruce Brown taking London off of the bounce.

We’ll need to continue to lock down the defensive glass. I hadn’t realized this yet, but Virginia is sixth in the country in defensive rebound percentage, and had posted DREB rates of more than 80% in five straight games before posting a 67.7 mark against UNC (which is commendable in itself). Miami is not a great shooting team, so they can’t be allowed to grab offensive rebounds and throw them out to restart the offense (or for the dreaded kickout three).

Offensively, we can and should attack the rim. London (who has 24 FTA in our last four games), Hall, and Shayok have all shown a willingness at times to go to the rim, and this is a game to do it, especially if it unlocks Hall and Shayok from their current slumpiness. Those guys each scored in double figures four times in five games when we were rolling through mid-January; they’ve each hit that mark twice in six games in February. London Perrantes isn’t the Malcolm Brogdon type of high-volume scorer, so other guys are going to need to chip in.

I’d like to see twenty-plus minutes for Diakite and for Ty Jerome to get the bulk of the backup minutes at guard. Diakite may have only taken one shot in 32 minutes over our last two games, but he looks the most comfortable catching it of anyone in our big man rotation. Jerome was as brutal against UNC as anyone, but he’s a willing passer who’s taken less than a quarter of his shots from the midrange.

Virginia Eights:
G: London Perrantes — 6'2'’ sr #32 

It’s not that Perrantes is slumping, that happens. It’s how badly he’s missing that concerns me. He’s made seven of his last 30 threes, and has now turned in an offensive rating under 100 in our last three games. He needs rest, and if he’s not getting rest (and he’s not), he needs help.
G: Devon Hall — 6'5'’ jr. #0
Devon’s mini-slump is threatening to become a full-fledged one. He’s shooting 30.8% over the last five games, has made two of his last 12 three point tries, and has one assist to four turnovers in our last two games. 
F: Marial Shayok — 6'6'’ jr #4
Shayok feasted on garbage time against UNC, scoring nine of his 13 points with the deficit at a minimum of 15 in the second half. I’m hoping that performance sparks something. 
F: Isaiah Wilkins — 6'7'’ jr #21
There is a limit to the experiment of using a 6'7'’ guy built like a wing as your best big, and it showed against UNC when Isaiah was bounced back and forth between Hicks and Meeks around the rim. His slump mirrors everyone else’s: he’s six of 20 over the last three games. 
F: Jack Salt — 6'11'’ so #33
Salt is grabbing almost 20% (19.5, to be exact) of defensive boards in ACC play. 
G: Kyle Guy — 6'3'’ fr #5
Guy’s first meetings with Duke and UNC produced one for 10 shooting (1–5 on threes) and three points. He’d probably like to have a lot of those back, especially from UNC.
G: Ty Jerome — 6'5'’ fr #11
UNC was Ty’s first game without either scoring, recording an assist, or both since playing two minutes at Pitt on January 4th. Also: Ty’s hit six of seven free throws this month, with his one miss being the biggest one. The mood around the base would be better if we’d beaten Tech before losing to the Tobacco Road blue bloods. 
F: Mamadi Diakite — 6'9'’ fr #25
Diakite has blocked 11 shots in 64 minutes over our last four games and is now up to a 15.2% block rate for the season. The next step is to get him more involved in the offense.

Miami Eights: 
G: Bruce Brown — 6'5'’ fr #11

Freshman is averaging 4.8 assists over Miami’s last five games, making up for his own slumping offense over that period. He’s scored in double figures 15 times, though nine of those came in 2016. 
G: Davon Reed — 6'6'’ sr #5
Reed scored 21 points and hit five of six threes against us in keying Miami’s upset win in Coral Gables last year, so I hope he’s on our minds. 
F: Anthony Lawrence — 6'7'’ so #3
Lawrence has taken slightly more than half of his shots from distance and has made them reliably (37.3%), but is liable to just disappear: he took one shot in 29 minutes vs. Georgia Tech and four in 30 vs. FSU. 
F: Kamari Murphy — 6'8'’ sr #21
Murphy hits both backboards hard (19.7%/11.2%) and provides Miami with some interior toughness. 
F: Ebuka Izundu — 6'10'’ so #15
Izundu jumped into a bigger role after Miami was manhandled in Tallahassee; he’s played almost 20 minutes per in the Canes’ last five games and has responded with 9.2 points per game and eight offensive boards. 
G: Dejan Vasiljevic — 6'4'’ fr #4
Miami’s only backcourt backup, Vasiljevic has taken 112 threes in 137 shots (hitting 36.6%), but has two assists in the last month of games. 
C: Dewan Huell — 6'11'’ fr #20 
Miami’s other top recruit from 2016 has been OK, but needs to build strength as to not get pushed around on the glass (11.6% DREB, 10.5% OREB) and underneath anymore. 
C: Rodney Miller — 7'0'’ fr #14
Miami goes eight deep when everyone’s available; Miller has played 3.7 minutes per game in 13 appearances and has played 10 minutes in ACC games.

Verdict:
If I thought we were tired after getting battered by UNC to finish off a long streak of tough games, we’re probably not going to magically be well-rested against Miami 48 hours later. The ‘Canes won’t be an easy out; Miami will mark our ninth straight game against a team in KenPom’s top 50, are as well-coached as ever, and seem to always be a tough one for us.

I’m not sure it’s going to be pretty, but I think this one goes our way. There should be a lot of emotion in the building with Malcolm Brogdon in the house for a pregame jersey retirement, and I’m hoping that jumpstarts a chain reaction, inciting the crowd to be a little louder and goad the team into an extra gear. If two or three friends can join London as contributors on offense and Davon Reed is kept relatively quiet, I’m not sure that the ‘Canes will have the depth to keep up.

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