Game Preview: Clemson at Virginia - SCACCHoops.com

Game Preview: Clemson at Virginia

by UniversityBall.org

Posted: 1/19/2016 12:10:00 PM


Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Classic rock mainstays are dropping like flies. Donald Trump is the presumptive Presidential nominee of a major political party. Virginia and Duke — predicted to finish second and third in the ACC by the ACC media — are a combined 5-6 in conference play and have combined to lose five of their last six. Forecast to be bottom-feeders, Pitt, Clemson, and Virginia Tech are a combined 13-3 in the ACC and boast wins over Duke, Virginia, Louisville, Miami, and Notre Dame. Order may yet be restored, but right now, the only thing I’m sure of is that poor Boston College is really bad.

In October, I viewed a home game against Clemson as a breather between physically demanding trips (on court and off if you factor in the travel) to Tallahassee and Syracuse. The Tigers always provide a little bit of a test just by virtue of their defense — we won by 23 last year in a game that was 25-19 at the half and by five in Clemson the year before — but have been mediocre at best in recent years and looked like the kind of team that a team with Final Four hopes beats pretty easily at home.

Three months later, I don’t know what I can count on. Our blocker/mover offense has proven susceptible to even a slight breeze. Virginia Tech doubled Anthony Gill and forced our ball handlers to the sideline and Georgia Tech and Florida State fronted our blockers, and all of these schemes have made our offense — pretty when it’s clicking, haters be damned — devolve into a slurry of missed midrange jumpers and seemingly aimless dribbling. Clemson will try to use Brad Brownell’s patented half court traps (currently producing a 9.9% steal rate and 18.3% turnover rate in ACC games) and a pair of capable-to-elite shot blockers in Jaron Blossomgame and Landry Nnoko to produce a similar result. We’ve been burned by lazily lofting the ball across the court at times this season, which is something that will put Clemson’s Jordan Roper (2.8% steal rate, eight in Clemson’s last two games) on SportsCenter if it happens tonight.

Once you pass the initial resistance of the half court trap and manage to pull up before being stuffed at the rim, you can score on Clemson. If you can get a shot up, the Tigers won’t make you miss it (ACC foes are hitting 47.8% of their twos and 36% of their threes), and you have a decent chance of securing your miss if they do (Clemson’s grabbing an abhorrent 64.4% of defensive rebounds in league games). We’ve got the bodies to attack the offensive glass against this team, as Clemson starts four wing-sized guys.

If the upside to Clemson being a little smallish is that we should be able to rebound, the down side is that the Tigers will start four mobile guys that are willing to shoot, and things have been dicey for us against teams that like to pick and pop (I’m still optimistic enough to not say things have been dicey against teams that cross half court). We’ve yielded threes a’plenty in our three losses (23-45, a 51% rate), and Clemson likes to take them: threes comprise almost 40% of their shots (39.5) and make up over a third (33.7%) of their points.

Blossomgame leads them in scoring (16.1 ppg), and gets his buckets inside (he’s shooting 63% at the rim), outside (he’s made 38.6% of his threes), and from the line (he takes a FT for every two shot attempts). He’s joined in double figures by the Tigers’ three point brigade: 6’8” Donte Grantham (10.4 ppg, 93 of his 164 shots have been threes and he’s made 37.6%) and 6’2” burner Avry (not a typo) Holmes (10.1; 84 of his 134 tries have come from deep, he’s made 38.1%). Roper (4.4 assists/1.2 turnovers) is a steady hand who thrives on touching the paint, and Nnoko is around to dunk or throw a hook up every now and then. The way to throw them off is to keep Roper out of the lane, close the three point line for business, and make Blossomgame become a creator off of the dribble with both his defender and the shot clock in his face. Clemson doesn’t play a fast game (in fact, they play the eighth-slowest of 351 D1 teams), but they’ve been efficient this season in how they wait for opponents to break down and then strike. For a team ridden with breakdowns in recent games, that doesn’t bode well.

Verdict:
Here’s three reasons why I think we’re going to win: a dialed-in John Paul Jones Arena is one of the best home court atmospheres in college hoops, we will have a tremendous edge in playable depth (Clemson goes seven deep except in emergencies) in what should be a demanding game, and with all respect to Blossomgame, Clemson doesn’t have the kind of NBA-caliber athlete (that smooth combination of strength, speed, grace, and agility) that FSU had two (maybe three?) of. I absolutely wouldn’t pick us to win if this game were being played at Clemson. The Tigers are well-coached, have beaten three consecutive top-25 teams, and are looking to continue gaining respect. This one won’t come easy.

 

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