The headliner: Texas heads to Baton Rouge, and the sims like the Longhorns
Saturday, 7:30 PM ET: Texas at LSU. The GameSim projection is Texas 35.1, LSU 20.4, across 1000 simulations. Fifteen points on the road in Death Valley is a real statement, and the model is making it with Arch Manning projected for 298.6 passing yards and 3.1 touchdowns.
The projected stats back the road side. Raleek Brown is projected for 67.8 rushing yards for Texas, while LSU's answer, per the sims, is Sam Leavitt at 246.8 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns, with Dilin Jones adding 46.6 rushing yards.
My take: the Longhorns do not need Manning to go for 300 to win a game the sims already have them taking by fifteen, they just need the 299-and-3 number and the running game to keep LSU honest. The Tigers flip this one if Leavitt clears his projection and the home crowd turns Death Valley into the edge it usually is. If Texas controls the line of scrimmage, the model looks right. If LSU gets the run game going early, Saturday night in Baton Rouge gets interesting fast.
GameSim line: Texas by fifteen over LSU.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and the game has not been played yet. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong tonight.
