Bad Boy Mowers Series and Big 5 Classic Lead Nov. 14 Hoops Slate

Three non-conference games offer three different kinds of intrigue on Nov. 14: a razor-thin simulation between SEC and WCC programs, a Big 5 Classic campus game, and a matchup where the model sees a substantial gap. The day’s closest call comes in the Bad Boy Mowers Series, but the Penn-Saint Joseph’s meeting also promises a compelling battle of projected scorers and rebounders.

LSU and Gonzaga bring the slate’s tightest forecast

The model sees almost nothing separating LSU and Gonzaga: LSU is projected for 83.3 points, Gonzaga 80.5, and LSU earns a 53% win probability across 200 simulations. That narrow margin makes every possession matter in this SEC-WCC meeting. The market differs, listing Gonzaga as a 5.5-point favorite, so this is a particularly interesting comparison between the simulation and the betting line. The projected total is 161.5 points, pointing to an up-tempo scoring contest on paper.

LSU’s projected contributors spread the workload. Donovan Dent is forecast for 13.0 points and 6.0 assists, while Saliou Niang’s projection of 11.9 points and 11.5 rebounds makes him a key presence on the glass. Michael Ruzic adds a projected 13.1 points. For Gonzaga, Braden Huff is forecast for 12.0 points and 4.5 rebounds. Explore the LSU-Gonzaga prediction.

Big 5 Classic puts Penn’s frontcourt to the test

At the Big 5 Classic campus game, Penn meets Saint Joseph’s in an Ivy-A-10 matchup. Saint Joseph’s holds a 65% simulation win probability, with a projected score of 77.8-65.5; the listed spread is 4.5 points, and the total is 153.5. The projections make the matchup’s interior contest worth watching: Penn’s TJ Power is forecast for 15.7 points and 9.7 rebounds, with Sir Mohammed adding 13.0 points and 8.0 boards. Saint Joseph’s Khaafiq Myers brings a versatile projected line of 17.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists. See the Penn-Saint Joseph’s prediction.

Texas Tech faces a different kind of assignment

Stonehill travels to face Texas Tech in an NEC-Big 12 non-conference game. The model projects Texas Tech to win 82.4-58.5 and gives the home side an 80% chance across 200 simulations. Cruz Davis and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn are each projected for 14.5 points; Davis also has a forecast of 3.2 assists. Stonehill’s Trenton Ruth is projected for 9.5 points. The listed spread is 40.5 points, while the model’s projected margin is 23.9, a notable difference for bettors to consider. Review the Stonehill-Texas Tech prediction.

Detailed projected player stats for all games are available exclusively to GameSim+ subscribers. Learn more and subscribe to GameSim+.