The headliner: Texas rolls into Death Valley as a two-touchdown favorite
Saturday, 7:30 PM ET: Texas at LSU. The GameSim projection is Texas 35.1, LSU 20.4, across 1,000 simulations. No. 7 on the road, at night, in Baton Rouge, and the sims are not hedging at all. A 14.7-point road margin against No. 11 is the loudest call on the whole Saturday board.
The projected stats say the gap starts at quarterback. Arch Manning is projected for 298.7 passing yards and 3.1 touchdowns for Texas, against 246.9 yards and 2.0 touchdowns for LSU's Sam Leavitt. Raleek Brown adds a projected 67.8 rushing yards for the Longhorns. If Manning is anywhere near 300 and three scores, the sims say this one is not close late.
My take: the model is betting on Texas's offense traveling, and the number is big enough that a close game would already count as LSU beating the projection. The Tigers flip this one by making it a grind, keeping Manning off the field and turning it into a fourth-quarter game in front of that crowd. If Texas gets to 35, the sims look right. If LSU holds the Longhorns in the twenties, Saturday night in Death Valley gets very interesting.
The ranked slate: Georgia, Indiana, and the noon window
At noon, Wake Forest at SMU, Wake Forest 40.8, SMU 30.2, across 1,000 simulations. No. 3 putting up a projected 40 points on the road is a statement, and the combined total of 71.0 is the biggest on the ranked board. Also at noon, Northwestern at Ohio State, Ohio State 35.9, Northwestern 27.8, and Duke at Miami, Miami 38.4, Duke 25.9, across 1,120 simulations. At 12:45 PM ET, Alabama at Vanderbilt, Alabama 31.9, Vanderbilt 23.5.
The 3:30 PM ET window is stacked. Missouri at Georgia, Georgia 32.7, Missouri 21.7, across 1,000 simulations, with No. 1 defending home turf against No. 17. At the same time, USC at Indiana, Indiana 31.3, USC 27.7, a 3.6-point margin for No. 2 that should stay live into the fourth quarter, and Michigan at Oregon, Oregon 32.3, Michigan 12.9, the widest ranked margin of the afternoon. Also at 3:30 PM ET, Boston College at Notre Dame, Boston College 26.1, Notre Dame 25.1, the sims calling a one-point road win for the unranked Eagles at No. 12. My take: that is the upset call of the day, and if Boston College walks out of South Bend with a win, the model saw it coming.
At 4:15 PM ET, Ole Miss at Oklahoma, Oklahoma 27.1, Ole Miss 26.1, across 1,000 simulations. One point between No. 23 and No. 24 is a coin flip with rankings attached, and the honest call is that either side can take it. At 3:00 PM ET, Tennessee at Texas A&M, Tennessee 26.7, Texas A&M 23.6, and at 2:00 PM ET, Kansas State at TCU, TCU 30.9, Kansas State 19.6.
Primetime and the late window
At 7:00 PM ET, Louisville at UNC, Louisville 33.9, UNC 28.2, with No. 5 on the road. At 7:45 PM ET, South Carolina at Arkansas, South Carolina 34.3, Arkansas 25.6, across 1,026 simulations. At 6:15 PM ET, Florida at Kentucky, Kentucky 29.1, Florida 28.8, a three-tenths-of-a-point margin that is a dead heat in everything but the jerseys. At 7:30 PM ET, Purdue at Iowa, Iowa 30.8, Purdue 25.8, and Utah at Arizona, Utah 33.2, Arizona 30.5, another one that should come down to the final possession.
Late, at 9:30 PM ET, Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, Oklahoma State 45.3, Texas Tech 33.4, across 1,020 simulations. A projected 78.7 combined points is the shootout of the night, and the sims have the No. 20 Cowboys putting up 45 at home. My take: if you stay up for one game, stay up for this one, because the model is saying points, points, points.
Quick hits: two NBA coin flips, a dead-even NHL game, and LSU at Gonzaga
From the NBA, at 7:00 PM ET, Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, Denver 115.8, New Orleans 115.5, across 280 simulations. Three tenths of a point is the model throwing up its hands, and the combined total of 231.4 is the angle the numbers actually support. At 7:30 PM ET, Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers, Cleveland 112.5, Dallas 111.7, another one-point game. At 8:00 PM ET, Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves, Minnesota 123.6, Chicago 104.5, and Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies, Memphis 122.2, Brooklyn 105.5, the two widest margins on the card, plus Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, Detroit 113.3, Miami 111.6.
On the ice, 14 games, and one the sims cannot split at all. At 8:00 PM ET, Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars, 3.2 apiece, a dead heat. At 7:00 PM ET, Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton 4.1, Toronto 3.3, the highest combined total on the board at 7.4 goals. Earlier, at 1:00 PM ET, Seattle Kraken at Carolina Hurricanes, Carolina 4.4, Seattle 2.8, across 1,000 simulations.
From college hoops, at 3:30 PM ET, LSU at Gonzaga, LSU 83.2, Gonzaga 80.7, across 220 simulations. The sims have the Tigers winning on the road by two and a half, which is a real call in Spokane. At 7:30 PM ET, Cincinnati at Dayton, Cincinnati 78.2, Dayton 75.7, and late, at 10:00 PM ET, New Mexico at Santa Clara, New Mexico 80.6, Santa Clara 74.8.
The report card: yesterday's card goes 10-for-19, with a split night underneath
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured card went 10-for-19 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article. The NBA went 5-for-9, college football 1-for-3, college hoops 3-for-5, and the NHL 1-for-2. It was a split night, and the misses were real, but the model earned plenty underneath the record.
The misses were spread across the board. Miami beat Cleveland 133-121 after the sims had the Cavaliers by one, Chicago beat Atlanta 125-117 after the sims had the Hawks by 2.8, Indiana beat New York 106-104 after the sims had the Knicks by 3.2, and the Clippers beat Oklahoma City 113-112 after the sims had the Thunder by 6.6. In college football, Florida State won at Pittsburgh 16-10 after the sims had the Panthers by 1.5, and Colorado beat Houston 42-32 after the sims had the Cougars by 8.2. In college hoops, Georgetown won at Clemson 85-78 after the sims had the Tigers by 4.3, and Georgia won at UNC 78-70 after the sims had the Tar Heels by 5.3. On the ice, Nashville won at Vegas 3-2 after the sims had the Golden Knights by a tenth of a goal.
But the card earned its record. San Antonio beat Golden State 123-85, Memphis beat New Orleans 142-111, Orlando beat Milwaukee 107-99, Houston beat Utah 125-118, Portland beat Sacramento 120-107, Virginia won at Maryland 87-83, Pittsburgh won at Butler 76-64, Michigan State beat Northern Iowa 106-72, and the Rangers won at Vancouver 5-1, and UCLA beat Illinois 22-14.
And the model deserves credit where it earned it. Portland landed almost exactly on its projection, 120 points against a projected 118.0, with Sacramento at 107 against a projected 109.0. Orlando and Virginia both won as projected, and Michigan State won big as projected. The totals did real work too: Miami and Cleveland combined for 254 points against a projected 227.4, and Memphis and New Orleans combined for 253 against a projected 233.5, so the overs were the story again. The closest call was Nashville at Vegas, 3-2, a one-goal game the sims had Vegas taking by a tenth of a goal. The biggest swing was San Antonio, a 38-point win against a projected 5.2-point margin, the Spurs turning a projected close game into a rout. The GameSim line went 1-for-3, graded on covering the projected margin, with San Antonio covering by a mile and the Cleveland and Houston legs missing, Houston winning by seven against a twenty-point line. Ten winners right, nine wrong, a split night with the big calls on both sides of the ledger, and the totals and projected stats still doing real work underneath it.
GameSim line: Texas by 15 at LSU, Georgia by 11 over Missouri, and Miami by 12 over Duke.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 10-for-19 on winners, with the NBA at 5-for-9, college football at 1-for-3, college hoops at 3-for-5, and the NHL at 1-for-2, and the biggest swing in San Antonio, where the Spurs won 123-85 after the sims called a five-point game. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
