Before I touch today's slate, let's do the honest thing. Friday night's four sims went 2-for-4, and the two misses have my fingerprints all over them.
First, the good: Columbia 28, Pennsylvania 27 — the sims had it Columbia 20.2, Penn 17.3, so we nailed the winner and were within two points on the margin. And Appalachian State 35, Coastal Carolina 32 — projected 25.8-24.8, which is basically calling a one-point game a one-point game. Those are the ones that keep the lights on.
Now the bad. Yesterday's headline said "Memphis Rolls." The sims had Memphis 34.4, Tulane 27.6. Final: Tulane 31, Memphis 17. Not just the wrong team — the wrong direction by 21 points. I put my name on that one and I was dead wrong. And Washington 38, Purdue 26 flipped our projected Purdue 33.6-26.3 win completely upside down. The model liked Friday's road favorites; Friday's road favorites got humbled instead.
Perry's process note: when 1,040-run averages blow up by 20+ points, that's not noise — that's the model overrating its own confidence on Friday night football. Logged it, adjusting accordingly. Now, today's slate.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana: 1,040 sims can't split them
This is the game of the year so far, and the sims just... refuse to pick it. Indiana 31.5, Ohio State 31.3 across 1,040 simulations. Sixteen hundredths of a point of separation. A coin flip wearing a helmet.
The projected stat lines tell the story of a shootout where neither offense blinks. Julian Sayin: 22.25-of-32, 333.3 yards, 3.7 touchdowns for Ohio State. Josh Hoover: 19.15-of-29.4, 242 yards, 2.55 TDs, zero interceptions for Indiana — clean football — plus Lee Beebe at 17.6 carries for 106.45 yards. Neither defense is projected to do much more than watch.
Here's my take: when the model runs it a thousand times and lands within a field goal's shadow, you don't out-think it — you ride the home field. Indiana gets the nod by the thinnest of margins, and this is the one I'll be watching with a whiteboard.
Perry's line: Indiana by a point, and the last team with the ball wins it. Take the over and don't overthink it.
Mississippi State at No. 16 LSU: the model just predicted a 39-point road ambush
Read this twice: Mississippi State 38.7, LSU 24.5 in Baton Rouge. The sims have an unranked Bulldogs team walking into Death Valley and hanging 39 on the No. 16 Tigers. Across 1,040 runs.
And it's not shy about how: AJ Swann projects 22.05-of-36.85 for 305.65 yards and 3.45 touchdowns. LSU's Sam Leavitt, meanwhile, is projected for 1.85 interceptions on 43.7 attempts. The model's read is blunt: LSU's secondary gets shredded and its quarterback gives it away trying to keep up.
This is the call that either makes the week or sets tomorrow's report card on fire. But when 1,040 sims converge on a 14-point road blowout, you don't hedge — you plant the flag.
Perry's line: Mississippi State covers everything and the over hits by halftime. Death Valley goes quiet.
One more for the road
No. 8 Notre Dame at No. 9 BYU, and the sims are having none of the Irish romance: BYU 35.5, Notre Dame 22.1. Bear Bachmeier projects as the best quarterback on the field — 15-of-21.5 for 201.3 yards and 2.9 TDs through the air plus 56.8 yards and 0.7 scores on the ground, with just 0.2 picks — while C.J. Carr grinds out 241.9 yards without much to show for it. In Provo, at night, the model's money is on the Cougars by two scores. Mine is too.
All scores above are MyGameSim sim projections — the games haven't been played yet. Friday taught us the model can whiff, but the math doesn't care about my feelings. Run your own sims and come back with receipts.
